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Macro News

  • 06.02.2018 — RUDE FINANCIAL CORRECTION NOT LIKELY TO SIDETRACK SOLID ECONOMIC MOMENTUM
  • 05.02.2018 — US NON-MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT REACHES 12YR HIGH, BEARS CLOSE WATCHING IN COMING MONTHS
  • 02.02.2018 — STRONG US EMPLOYMENT REPORT: WAGES POP, JOBS ROBUST, UNEMPLOYMENT LOW
  • 01.02.2018 — US Q4-17 PRODUCTIVITY DROP A BLIP, ‘17 REBOUND ENCOURAGING, MOVE HIGHER IN ‘18
  • 31.01.2018 — FED’S PREFERRED WAGE MEASURE ACCELERATES IN 2017, MORE EXPECTED IN 2018
  • 31.01.2018 — FED STATEMENT SHOWS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN INFLATION - RATE HIKES TO CONTINUE
  • 30.01.2018 — TRUMP’S STATE OF THE UNION – ECONOMIC TAKEAWAYS ON INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING INITIATIVE
  • 29.01.2018 — MACRO UPDATE: GERMAN COALITION, GERMAN STRIKES, ITALIAN ELECTION, CATALONIA
  • 29.01.2018 — STRONG U.S. HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON PUSHES SAVING RATE TO 12-YR LOW, CORE INFLATION FIRMS
  • 26.01.2018 — US Q4 REAL GDP: STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND AND MOMENTUM SUGGEST MORE TO COME
  • 25.01.2018 — US DECEMBER HOME SALES GIVE BACK DISASTER-RELATED GAINS, BUT UNDERLYING DEMAND STRONG
  • 18.01.2018 — US: WEATHER DISRUPTS NEAR-TERM HOUSING, FUNDAMENTALS STILL FAVORABLE
  • 18.01.2018 — US: EARLY 2018 MANUFACTURING SURVEYS SHOW THAT CAPEX PLANS REMAIN ROBUST
  • 17.01.2018 — US IP FINISHES 2017 STRONG, GIVES 2018 A HEAD START
  • 12.01.2018 — STRONG US HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON AND ACCELERATION IN CPI
  • 05.01.2018 — US DECEMBER NFP MISSES FORECASTS BUT TREND AND OUTLOOK REMAIN STRONG
  • 03.01.2018 — FOMC MINUTES: INFLATION KEY FOR 2018 POLICY PATH
  • 19.12.2017 — US HOUSING STARTS PARTLY BOOSTED BY POST-HURRICANE REBUILD BUT UNDERLYING TREND IS SOLID
  • 17.12.2017 — U.S. TAX REFORM TO LIFT GROWTH, PROFITS, EMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
  • 02.12.2017 — U.S. SENATE PASSES ITS TAX BILL
  • 28.11.2017 — US CONSUMER - CONFIDENCE DRIVEN SPENDING
  • 08.05.2017 — VIVE LA FRANCE, VIVE L'EUROPE: PRESIDENT MACRON

    On behalf of Holger Schmieding:Relief for France, relief for the European project: Emmanuel Macron is the next president of France. He now has a splendid opportunity to reform France and forge a deal with Germany and other European countries to strengthen the cohesion of the EU and the Eurozone. Although serious risks remain, chances are that the tide of populist anger has peaked in the Eurozone. Jointly with German chancellor Merkel, whose chances to win a fourth term in September have improved (...)

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  • 05.05.2017 — MAY FOMC ON HOLD
  • 05.05.2017 — US MARCH CONSUMER SPENDING AND PRICES: SOFT
  • 04.05.2017 — How Brexit could affect the UK general election
  • 03.05.2017 — EUROZONE RECOVERY GAINS TRACTION

    Eurozone GDP, Q1 (qoq, in %)   Actual:0.5Previous:0.5Consensus:0.5Berenberg:0.4      The Eurozone recovery is broadening, firming and becoming more resilient: The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.5% (0.46%) qoq in Q1, in line with consensus expectations and at a similar rate as in Q4 (revised up last week from 0.4% to 0.5% qoq). In a year beset with serious political risks, the economy got off to an encouraging start. With major uncertainties from elect (...)

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  • 03.05.2017 — UK UPDATE: CONSEQUENCES OF THE UK-EU BREXIT CLASH

    WHAT SHOULD WE TAKE AWAY FROM THE EARLY UK-EU HEADBUTTING?Why can’t we be friends? The recent comments from senior EU officials about Britain’s ‘delusions’ over what can be achieved during the Brexit negotiations indicate the stark difference between the starting positions of the UK and the EU. While Britain wants free trade in goods, services and capital without many strings attached, other EU members see the EU as a much more complex economic and political project. Issu (...)

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  • 03.05.2017 — US NON-MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT REBOUNDS, MANUFACTURING MODERATES
  • 02.05.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: LE PEN, BREXIT, RENZI, MERKEL, GREECE

    FRANCE: A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER RACEFive days ahead of the decisive vote on 7 May, the French presidential race has tightened slightly. Four of the last five opinion polls put support for the centrist reformer Emmanuel Macron at 59% versus 41% for far-right Marine Le Pen, with one poll at 61% for Macron. A week ago, the polls had projected 62% on average for Macron. To broaden her base, Le Pen has struck a deal with ultra-Gaullist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, promising to appoint him as prime minister in r (...)

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  • 28.04.2017 — ECB MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING

    The ECB’s monetary stimulus is reaching the real economy. The further advance in loan growth in March points to firm consumer demand and more business investment ahead.  (...)

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  • 25.04.2017 — EUROZONE: A FIRMER ECONOMIC RECOVERY

    Life is full of risks. Politics could still go badly wrong in France. But with Macron in the pole position to be the next French president, the tail risks in the Eurozone have receded further. (...)

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  • 24.04.2017 — FRANCE: HOPE SEEMS TO BEAT ANGER

     France yearns for change. But what kind of change? After centrist reformer Emmanuel Macron qualified today for the 7 May run-off round of the French presidential election, chances are that France will get the economic reforms it needs to revive its fortunes and catch up with Germany and that France, Germany and their partners will work together to strengthen the cohesion of the Eurozone and the EU. (...)

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  • 24.04.2017 — GERMAN IFO CLIMBS FURTHER, STRONG Q1 TO CARRY INTO Q2

    Germany enjoying a little boom: According to the Ifo survey, the business climate improved in April to the highest since July 2011 (from 112.4 to 112.9). While political risks stemming from the French presidential elections weighed on expectations (down to 105.2, after 105.7), a strong improvement in the assessment of the current situation lifted overall sentiment (121.1 from 119.5 in March, see chart 1). (...)

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  • 21.04.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS CARRY STRONG MOMENTUM INTO Q2

    Eurozone business activity rises to six-year high, despite political risks stemming from the upcoming French elections. According to flash PMIs, the upswing registered in Q1 may gain further momentum in the second quarter.  (...)

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  • 21.04.2017 — US: SALES OF EXISTING HOMES JUMP TO POST-RECESSION HIGH IN MARCH

    Sales of existing homes rose by 4.4% to an annualized 5.71mn in March, a post-recession high. The strong gains come despite a very short supply of for-sale homes that is placing upward pressure on prices. Home prices increased by a sizable 6.8% yr/yr, a double-edged sword which increases net worth for existing home owners but keeps some potential home buyers on the sidelines. (...)

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  • 20.04.2017 — US REGIONAL MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT WEAKENS BUT UNDERLYING DETAILS SOLID

    The two major regional manufacturing surveys – Empire State and Philadelphia Fed – released thus far in April have revealed an interesting trend with the headline indexes (general business conditions) moving lower, indicating that the post-election euphoria is diminishing, but the underlying components continue to increase or are posting smaller declines than the headline indexes. (...)

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  • 18.04.2017 — UK: 8TH JUNE 'BREXIT' ELECTION RAISES RISK OF 'HARDER' EU EXIT

    PM May seeks to strengthen her mandate: Rebuking previous promises not to hold early elections, Prime Minister Theresa May today announced that she wants to hold a snap general election on 8th June.  (...)

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  • 18.04.2017 — US: SOLID Q1 FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

    The headline GDP number will be unflattering in Q1, due to temporary factors holding back private consumption and possibly the statistical quirkiness that has held down reported Q1 growth. This masks the solid improvement in both housing and business fixed investment which underperformed significantly in prior quarters – a welcomed support to private consumption that was the only real driver of growth in 2016. The data received today provide further support of these recent trends. (...)

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  • 18.04.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: FRENCH AND GERMAN POLLS

    The four-way presidential election race in France has tightened slightly further. Five days ahead of the first round on 23 April, opinion polls show a further gain for ultra-left insurgent Jean-Luc Melenchon to an average of 19.4% after 18.0% five days ago. (...)

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  • 14.04.2017 — SOFT US CPI PARTLY DUE TO ANOMALOUS FACTORS AND CORE RETAIL SALES STRONG

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by a sizable 0.3% m/m (+2.4% yr/yr) in March due to lower retail gasoline prices and a stunning 0.1% m/m decline in the core CPI (excludes food and energy) – the first decline in this metric since January 2010 – pulling the yr/yr gain down 0.2pp to 2.0%. The downward surprise came in prices for wireless telephone services, which fell by 7% m/m - the largest decline in the 20 year history of the series – and subtracted 0.1pp from the headl (...)

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  • 11.04.2017 — UK: RISING INFLATION TAKES A BREATHER - BUT IT WON'T LAST, OR BE THAT BAD

    A temporary breather in March: After accelerating by more than expected in February, inflation stabilised in March (2.3%). But it won’t last.  (...)

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  • 11.04.2017 — GERMAN SENTIMENT IMPROVES FURTHER: ZEW BACK TO AUGUST 2015 LEVEL

    German economy enjoying a little boom: The headline expectations indicator of the ZEW survey jumped to its highest level since August 2015.  (...)

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  • 07.04.2017 — US MARCH JOBS SLOWDOWN ATTRIBUTABLE TO BAD WEATHER

    The BLS’ measure of US job growth surprised to the downside in March, rising by a meager 98k, as an unseasonably severe snowstorm during the survey period distorted estimates. Besides the weak increase in establishment payrolls, the other details in the BLS’ Employment Report were solid, consistent with other statistical releases and surveys that suggest an improving economy. The unemployment rate fell 0.2pp to 4.5%, its lowest level since May 2007. (...)

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  • 05.04.2017 — SOLID PMIS FOR Q1 SHOW THE UK STARTED 2017 ON A FIRM FOOTING

    Growth is normalising after a temporary - above-trend - acceleration in H2 2016: The surprise surge in real GDP growth in the second half of 2016 probably moderated to more normal levels at the start of the year. (...)

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  • 05.04.2017 — US NATIONAL BUSINESS SENTIMENT MIXED IN MARCH

    The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) measure of national non-manufacturing sentiment fell more than expected in March (-2.4pts to 55.2) but remained positive in the expansionary territory, while its manufacturing index remained elevated (-0.5pt to 57.2). Unlike other regional manufacturing surveys, the ISMs cover sentiment for the full month, so some reaction to the healthcare policy reform failure was at least partially captured in the surveys. (...)

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  • 05.04.2017 — FED MINUTES: JUSTIFY RATE INCREASE, CHANGE TO ITS REINVESTMENT POLICY SOON

    The minutes of the FOMC’s March 15th meeting provided support for its decision to raise its Federal funds rate but importantly revealed an extensive discussion of the steps the Fed is considering to begin reducing the size of its balance sheet. The Fed’s portfolio has a massive $4.5 trillion in assets. With signs of the economy improving and inflation at the Fed’s long-run target, and with the normalization of interest rates already well underway, addressing the Fed’s bal (...)

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  • 03.04.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: THE BREXIT GAP, FRENCH AND GERMAN POLITICS

    Even in the best case, the uncertainty over the UK’s post-Brexit access to the EU27 market won’t be over when Britain leaves the EU on 29 March 2019. The two-year divorce process from the EU27 may be starting with a little misunderstanding as to what exactly the two sides can achieve until then.  (...)

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  • 31.03.2017 — US PCE DEFLATOR EXCEEDS FED’S TARGET, BUT PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SOFT

    The US PCE deflator rose to 2.1% yr/yr in February, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target for the first time since April 2012, while the core PCE deflator is now up 1.8% yr/yr; the upward drift in inflation suggests continued Fed rate increases are appropriate. US private consumption rose only 0.1% in February and declined by 0.1% in real terms, likely due to transitory factors. Expect a bounce back in March and upcoming months: fundamentals such as improving incomes, solid job growth, buoyan (...)

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  • 02.02.2017 — US: FOMC LEAVES POLICY UNCHANGED BUT APPEARS MORE CONFIDENT IN OUTLOOK

    As expected, the FOMC voted to leave the federal funds rate target unchanged at its January 31-February 1 meeting. There were no material changes made to the Fed’s official Policy Statement, but the Committee indicated more confidence in its economic outlook. (...)

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  • 18.03.2014 — NO ADDITIONAL TROUBLE FROM KARLSRUHE

    Germany’s constitutional court has confirmed its preliminary September 2012 ruling on the permanent Eurozone rescue fund ESM. Provided that the German contribution does not exceed the €190bn approved by the Bundestag and direct involvement of the parliament in the ESM’s decision making is ensured, the ESM does not infringe on the parliamentary budget right and is thus constitutional. (...)

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Macro Flash

  • 19.09.2018 — U.S. HOUSING STARTS REBOUND IN AUGUST, EXPECT HURRICANE VOLATILITY SOON
  • 14.09.2018 — U.S. RETAIL SALES: SOFT INCREASE IN AUGUST OFFSET BY UPWARD REVISION IN JULY
  • 14.09.2018 — U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN AUGUST
  • 13.09.2018 — U.S.: SOFT AUGUST CPI EXACERBATED BY ONE-OFF FACTORS
  • 12.09.2018 — U.S.: SOFT AUGUST PPI SUGGESTS ONLY MODERATE DRIFT UP IN INFLATION
  • 11.09.2018 — U.S. SMALL BUSINESSES: RECORD-SETTING OPTIMISM
  • 07.09.2018 — U.S. JOB AND WAGE GROWTH TOP EXPECTATIONS IN AUGUST
  • 04.09.2018 — U.S.: ROBUST ISM MANUFACTURING POINTS TOWARD SUSTAINED STRONG GROWTH
  • 31.08.2018 — EUROZONE HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION CONVERGENCE TO COME
  • 30.08.2018 — U.S. CONSUMPTION STARTS Q3 ON SOLID NOTE; INFLATION AT FED’S 2% TARGET
  • 30.08.2018 — ECONOMIC SENTIMENT: UK UP, EUROZONE SLIGHLTY DOWN, GERMANY STABLE
  • 29.08.2018 — U.S. CORPORATE PROFITS RISE TO NEW HIGH IN Q2 2018
  • 28.08.2018 — U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX JUMPS TO NEAR 18-YEAR HIGH IN AUGUST
  • 24.08.2018 — US: STRONG JULY CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS AS H2 OFF TO SOLID START
  • 24.08.2018 — FED CHAIR POWELL STRESSES GRADUALISM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH ESTIMATES OF KEY LONGER-RUN VARIABLES
  • 23.08.2018 — THE CORE DRIVES EUROZONE PMIS HIGHER, JUST
  • 23.08.2018 — US JULY HOME SALES CONSTRAINED BY TIGHT SUPPLY
  • 22.08.2018 — FED MINUTES HIGHLIGHT ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, TRADE RISKS; RATE HIKE LIKELY SOON
  • 16.08.2018 — U.S.: HOUSING STARTS REMAIN WEAK IN JULY DUE TO SHARP DROP IN THE WEST
  • 16.08.2018 — US: PHILLY FED MANUFACTURERS SOUR ON CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT GROW MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OUTLOOK
  • 15.08.2018 — US: SOLID JULY RETAIL SALES SUPPORTED BY HEALTHY FUNDAMENTALS
  • 15.08.2018 — US: STRONG LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GAIN IN Q2
  • 15.08.2018 — US IP POSTS SLIGHT GAIN, EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT INDEX BEATS EXPECTATIONS
  • 14.08.2018 — GERMAN GDP: MODEST REBOUND AFTER WEAK Q1
  • 14.08.2018 — US IMPORT PRICES UNCHANGED IN JULY, AGRICULTURAL EXPORT PRICES DROP BECAUSE OF TRADE TENSIONS
  • 14.08.2018 — TURKEY: SOARING INFLATION + ERDOGAN’S AUTHORITARIAN RULE = FINANCIAL CRISIS
  • 10.08.2018 — UK GDP: BACK TO TREND AFTER TEMPORARY DIP
  • 10.08.2018 — US CPI INFLATION SOLIDLY ABOVE 2%
  • 09.08.2018 — U.S. HEADLINE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX FLAT IN JULY
  • 08.08.2018 — US Q2 INVENTORY LIQUIDATION POINTS TO HEALTHY PRODUCTION GROWTH IN H2
  • 07.08.2018 — GERMAN OUTPUT: JUNE PARTLY OFFSETS MAY SURGE
  • 06.08.2018 — US NOMINAL GDP ACCELERATION: PAY MORE ATTENTION TO IT
  • 03.08.2018 — US: SOLID JULY JOBS REPORT POINTS TO MOMENTUM IN Q3
  • 02.08.2018 — BOE HIKES RATES - QUICK REACTION
  • 01.08.2018 — US: ISM MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT POINTS TO SOME MODERATION IN MOMENTUM
  • 01.08.2018 — FED NOTES STRONG ECONOMY, ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE
  • 31.07.2018 — EUROZONE GDP: AUTUMN REBOUND AHEAD AFTER A SOFT PATCH NOW
  • 31.07.2018 — US: SOLID CONSUMPTION GROWTH AND MODERATE PCE INFLATION IN JUNE
  • 31.07.2018 — US EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX GROWTH INCHES CLOSER TO 3% YR/YR
  • 30.07.2018 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT: STRONG SERVICES LIMIT TRADE DAMAGE
  • 27.07.2018 — THE U.S. (TRUMP)–EUROPE (JUNCKER) TRUCE ON TRADE: PROGRESS IS NO SURPRISE
  • 27.07.2018 — US: STRONG REAL GDP GROWTH IN Q2 POINTS TO SUSTAINED HEALTHY GROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF
  • 26.07.2018 — US: STRONG JUNE DURABLE GOODS REPORT SUPPORTS FIRM BUSINESS INVESTMENT
  • 25.07.2018 — CYCLICAL ANALYSIS OF PROFITS AND STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN JAPAN AND CANADA
  • 23.07.2018 — US: JUNE EXISTING HOME SALES DECLINE, HOMES AVAILABLE FOR SALE INCREASE BUT REMAIN VERY LOW
  • 18.07.2018 — THE FED’S SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON MONETARY POLICY AND THE ECONOMY
  • 16.07.2018 — US: HEALTHY RETAIL SALES REPORT FOR JUNE
  • 12.07.2018 — US JUNE CPI NEARS 3%
  • 12.07.2018 — TRUMP INTENSIFIES TRADE PRESSURES ON CHINA: OBSERVATIONS
  • 11.07.2018 — US JUNE PRODUCER PRICES RISE BY MOST SINCE 2011
  • 10.07.2018 — BREXIT: MAY STRENGTHENED, TESTS AHEAD FOR A SOFTER BREXIT
  • 10.07.2018 — ZEW: THE EUROZONE SOFT PATCH COULD CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER
  • 09.07.2018 — BREXIT: DAVIS RESIGNS - MORE THUNDER THAN LIGHTNING
  • 09.07.2018 — UK: WOULD THERESA MAY SURVIVE A LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE?
  • 06.07.2018 — US: STRONG JOB AND LABOR FORCE GROWTH, BUT SOFT WAGE GROWTH
  • 05.07.2018 — FED MINUTES NOTE STRONG ECONOMY BUT HIGHLIGHT INCREASED TRADE CONCERNS
  • 03.07.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: THE IMPACT OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS
  • 02.07.2018 — US MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT IMPROVES BUT SUPPLY CHAIN BOTTLENECKS INTENSIFY
  • 02.07.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: THE CRISIS COMES TO A HEAD
  • 02.07.2018 — POLITICAL UPDATE: GERMANY, TRADE, EU SUMMIT
  • 29.06.2018 — OIL PUSHES EUROZONE INFLATION TO 2%, UNDERLYING PRESSURES SUBDUED
  • 29.06.2018 — US: HEADLINE AND CORE PCE INFLATION BOTH MEET FED’S 2% TARGET IN MAY, CONSUMPTION SOFT
  • 27.06.2018 — US DURABLE GOODS ACTIVITY SOFT IN MAY, BUT UPWARD TREND IS FIRM
  • 25.06.2018 — MORE HOPE: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS STABILISE
  • 22.06.2018 — EUROZONE: STRENGTH AT HOME LIFTS PMIS IN JUNE
  • 21.06.2018 — US: DENT IN PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT NOTEWORTHY, BUT FUTURE PLANS REMAIN ROBUST
  • 15.06.2018 — US MAY IP DIP LIKELY A BLIP AS DEMAND REMAINS STRONG
  • 14.06.2018 — ECB: A CLEAR MESSAGE - NEITHER HAWKISH NOR DOVISH
  • 14.06.2018 — US RETAIL SALES REGAIN STRONG MOMENTUM
  • 14.06.2018 — POLITICAL RISK IN GERMANY?
  • 13.06.2018 — STABLE INFLATION IN MAY DESPITE UPWARD PRESSURE FROM OIL PRICES
  • 13.06.2018 — US PPI: UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRODUCTION COSTS
  • 13.06.2018 — FED RAISES POLICY RATE, PROJECTS TWO MORE HIKES THIS YEAR
  • 12.06.2018 — US CPI CONTINUES TO DRIFT UP
  • 11.06.2018 — PREVIEW OF FED’S JUNE FOMC MEETING
  • 08.06.2018 — UK UPDATE - THE ONLY WAY IS BREXIT
  • 08.06.2018 — ITALY: A TIMELINE FOR POTENTIAL TROUBLE
  • 07.06.2018 — MACRO RISKS: KEY CHARTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
  • 07.06.2018 — US HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH ROSE IN Q1, DESPITE EQUITY MARKET DROP
  • 06.06.2018 — US Q1 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED LOWER, BUT UNDERLYING TREND IS FIRMING
  • 04.06.2018 — EUROPEAN REFORMS: MERKEL'S DOWN-TO-EARTH RESPONSE TO MACRON
  • 04.06.2018 — GREECE GDP: SIGNS OF HOPE
  • 01.06.2018 — MACRO UPDATE: RADICALS RULE ITALY, TRUMP GETS TRADE WRONG
  • 01.06.2018 — ROBUST US MAY EMPLOYMENT REPORT
  • 01.06.2018 — ISM US MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN MAY
  • 31.05.2018 — SPAIN: PROSPECTS FOR NEW ELECTIONS
  • 31.05.2018 — US: STABLE PCE INFLATION IN APRIL BUT MOUNTING PRICE PRESSURES POINT TOWARD UPSIDE RISKS
  • 25.05.2018 — US: STRONG GROWTH IN CORE DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS TO START Q2, RESURGENT SENTIMENT IN MAY SUGGESTS MOMENTUM SHOULD CONTINUE
  • 24.05.2018 — US HOME SALES CONSTRAINED BY TIGHT INVENTORY, STRONGER CONSTRUCTION GAINS NEEDED
  • 24.05.2018 — ECB ACCOUNT SETS SCENE FOR MEETING IN JU...LY
  • 23.05.2018 — LOWER EUROZONE PMIS SUGGEST REBOUND MAY COME LATER
  • 23.05.2018 — MAY FED MINUTES: EMPHASIS ON SYMMETRICAL INFLATION TARGET AND NOD TO JUNE RATE HIKE
  • 17.05.2018 — US: PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT SURGES TO ONE-YEAR HIGH
  • 16.05.2018 — US HOUSING STARTS DECLINE IN APRIL BUT STRONG DEMAND UNDERPINS A FIRM UPWARD TREND
  • 16.05.2018 — MOMENTUM IN US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
  • 15.05.2018 — US RETAIL SALES START Q2 ON SOLID NOTE, EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT BOUNCES BACK IN MAY
  • 10.05.2018 — US CORE CPI STABILIZES IN APRIL AFTER PRIOR ACCELERATION
  • 09.05.2018 — US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX SUGGESTS THAT INFLATION IS STABILIZING
  • 08.05.2018 — US CONSUMER: SOLID FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT NEAR-TERM REBOUND
  • 08.05.2018 — US JOB OPENINGS RISE TO RECORD HIGH IN MARCH, OTHER MEASURES OF CHURN IMPROVING
  • 04.05.2018 — US APRIL JOBS REPORT: A MIXED BAG
  • 03.05.2018 — US PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH FIRMING, CONSTRAINING UNIT LABOR COST GROWTH
  • 02.05.2018 — FED SIGNALS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INFLATION OUTLOOK
  • 01.05.2018 — US ISM MANUFACTURING: PRODUCTION CONSTRAINED BY SUPPLY FACTORS
  • 30.04.2018 — US INFLATION UP, REAL CONSUMPTION SOLID IN MARCH
  • 27.04.2018 — US Q1 GDP TOPS EXPECTATIONS DESPITE DOWNWARD BIAS, EXPECT SIZABLE Q2 REBOUND
  • 27.04.2018 — US: FED’S PREFERRED WAGE MEASURE BOOSTED BY BONUSES AND BETTER FUNDAMENTALS IN Q1
  • 26.04.2018 — US MARCH CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS SOFT
  • 25.04.2018 — VISUALIZING GLOBAL TRADE: RISING VOLUMES, MULTILATERAL FLOWS
  • 24.04.2018 — REVAMPED GERMAN IFO SLIPS FURTHER ON SIMMERING TRADE TENSIONS
  • 24.04.2018 — US HOUSING SECTOR ENTERS SPRING ON SOLID FOOTING; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN APRIL
  • 19.04.2018 — US APRIL PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT INDEX INCREASES, POINTS TO SUSTAINED PRODUCTION GAINS
  • 17.04.2018 — US: Q1 HOUSING STARTS BOOSTED BY STRONG DEMAND AND CHRONIC SHORTAGE OF HOMES
  • 17.04.2018 — US IP INCREASES TO ALL-TIME HIGH – STRONG FACTORY MOMENTUM ENTERING Q2
  • 16.04.2018 — US: RETAIL SALES SOLID, PRECIPITOUS DROP IN EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURERS' EXPECTATIONS AS UNCERTAINTIES LINGER
  • 12.04.2018 — ECB CONCERNED ABOUT INCREASING RISK OF TRADE CONFLICTS
  • 11.04.2018 — US: 2% CORE CPI INFLATION NEW REALITY WITH DRAG FROM CELLPHONE SERVICE PRICES GONE
  • 11.04.2018 — FOMC MINUTES SHOW FED’S OUTLOOK TILTED TOWARD RISING INFLATION
  • 09.04.2018 — THE FED’S MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES
  • 04.04.2018 — TRUMP'S CHAOTIC TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWER BARRIERS, BUT AT A COST
  • 04.04.2018 — EUROZONE UNDERLYING INFLATION PICK-UP IS TAKING ITS TIME
  • 02.04.2018 — US: TARIFF CONCERNS SLIGHTLY DENT MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT
  • 02.04.2018 — US: TARIFF CONCERNS SLIGHTLY DENT MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT
  • 02.04.2018 — US: TARIFF CONCERNS SLIGHTLY DENT MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT
  • 29.03.2018 — US FEBRUARY CONSUMPTION SOFT BUT FUNDAMENTALS POINT TO NEAR-TERM REBOUND, INFLATION CONTINUES TO FIRM
  • 23.03.2018 — US FEBRUARY DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING STRONG AMID GROWN UNCERTAINTIES
  • 22.03.2018 — GERMAN IFO SLIPS ON TRADE TENSIONS
  • 22.03.2018 — FOMC HIKES RATES, RAISES ITS ECONOMIC FORECASTS AND APPROPRIATE PATH OF FED FUNDS RATE
  • 22.03.2018 — US FEBRUARY EXISTING HOME SALES LIKELY BOOSTED BY RUSH TO LOCK IN MORTGAGE RATES
  • 19.03.2018 — THE FED: DEALING WITH ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, LOW INFLATION AND ITS DUAL MANDATE
  • 16.03.2018 — POLITICAL UPDATE: WHAT NEXT FOR ITALY?
  • 16.03.2018 — US: FEBRUARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION STRONG, HOUSING STARTS SOFT
  • 16.03.2018 — SURGE IN US CONSUMER SENTIMENT TO 14-YEAR HIGH POINTS TO REBOUND IN RETAIL ACTIVITY IN COMING MONTHS
  • 15.03.2018 — US REGIONAL MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT RESILIENT; IMPORT PRICES OF CAPITAL GOODS RISING BRISKLY
  • 14.03.2018 — US RETAIL SALES DISAPPOINT IN FEBRUARY, BUT SOFTNESS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
  • 13.03.2018 — US CPI INFLATION MODERATES IN FEBRUARY, CALMING NERVES
  • 09.03.2018 — BOOMING US EMPLOYMENT IN FEBRUARY
  • 08.03.2018 — ECB UNFAZED BY NEW UNCERTAINTIES
  • 07.03.2018 — US TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS IN JANUARY AS FOCUS ON TARIFFS INTENSIFIES
  • 07.03.2018 — PROPOSED TARIFFS, POLITICAL DISCORD, AND MARKETS
  • 06.03.2018 — AFTER ITALY: DEALING WITH THE POPULIST MENACE IN EUROPE
  • 05.03.2018 — ITALY: A MAJOR POLITICAL UPSET
  • 04.03.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: THE LIMBO IS OVER
  • 02.03.2018 — PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PROPOSED TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM: THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF WRONG-HEADED POLICIES
  • 01.03.2018 — US JANUARY PCE REPORT: PCE PRICE INDEX UP; DISPOSABLE INCOMES SURGE; CONSUMPTION SOFT
  • 01.03.2018 — US: ISM MANUFACTURING RISES TO CYCLE-HIGH IN FEBRUARY, CAPEX ON TRACK FOR SOLID Q1
  • 27.02.2018 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT STILL LOOKS PROMISING DESPITE SMALL CORRECTION
  • 27.02.2018 — SOFT US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS OFFSET BY RISING SHIPMENTS
  • 27.02.2018 — US: ANOTHER CONFIDENCE SURVEY SHOWS CONSUMERS SHRUGGING OFF VOLATILITY - CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK REMAINS BRIGHT
  • 27.02.2018 — FED CHAIR POWELL’S TESTIMONY: BULLISH ON ECONOMIC MOMENTUM
  • 26.02.2018 — US NEW HOME SALES TUMBLE TEMPORARILY – LOOK FOR A REBOUND AS BUYERS JUMP TO LOCK IN RATES
  • 21.02.2018 — EUROZONE PMIS: TAKING A LITTLE BREATHER AFTER MARKET CORRECTION
  • 21.02.2018 — US JANUARY EXISTING HOME SALES DROP LIKELY WEATHER-RELATED, EXPECT REBOUND WITH THE RUSH TO LOCK IN LOW RATES
  • 16.02.2018 — MOMENTUM IN GLOBAL ECONOMIES AND TRADE
  • 16.02.2018 — US JANUARY HOUSING STARTS ACCELERATE DESPITE BAD WEATHER
  • 16.02.2018 — US CONSUMER SENTIMENT JUMPS, DEFYING STOCK MARKET CORRECTION
  • 15.02.2018 — US MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT AND PRODUCTION MIXED, BUT OUTLOOK REMAINS BRIGHT
  • 14.02.2018 — GERMAN GDP: SLIGHT MODERATION, BUT STILL GROWING WELL ABOVE TREND
  • 14.02.2018 — US CPI JUMPS AND CONSUMERS TAKE BREATHER AT START OF 2018, BOTH TRENDS UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE
  • 12.02.2018 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: MARKET RISKS, GERMAN POLITICS, BREXIT
  • 08.02.2018 — BOE: A MAY RATE HIKE IS VERY LIKELY
  • 07.02.2018 — GERMAN COALITION: THEY HAVE A DEAL, BUT NOT YET A GOVERNMENT
  • 30.01.2018 — EUROZONE ON TRACK FOR A SOLID 2018 AFTER STRONG Q4
  • 29.01.2018 — MACRO UPDATE: GERMAN COALITION, GERMAN STRIKES, ITALIAN ELECTION, CATALONIA
  • 24.01.2018 — EUROZONE PMIS: ECONOMY STARTS 2018 WITH 12-YEAR-RECORD GROWTH
  • 17.01.2018 — ECB TO END QE IN SEPTEMBER DESPITE WEAK INFLATION AND STRONGER EURO
  • 17.01.2018 — OUTLOOK 2018: ALMOST TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE?
  • 16.01.2018 — UK: INFLATION HAS PEAKED, BUT THE BOE SHOULD STILL TIGHTEN
  • 08.01.2018 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT: STELLAR END TO 2017 PUTS 2018 ON A STRONG FOOTING
  • 22.12.2017 — U.S. CONSUMERS FUEL STRONG SHOPPING SEASON, CAPEX ROBUST, PRICES FIRMING
  • 20.12.2017 — U.S. NOVEMBER EXISTING HOME SALES GET BOOST FROM HURRICANE-REBUILD, STRONG FUNDAMENTALS, TAX CHANGES
  • 19.12.2017 — GERMAN IFO: A FESTIVE OPTIMISM IS IN THE AIR
  • 15.12.2017 — US: STRONG INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND SENTIMENT TO CONTINUE INTO 2018
  • 14.12.2017 — ECB: LEAN BACK AND ENJOY THE MOMENTUM
  • 14.12.2017 — US: ROBUST RETAIL SALES – STRONG START TO HOLIDAY SEASON
  • 13.12.2017 — US CORE CPI SURPRISES TO DOWNSIDE - ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM FIRMING
  • 07.12.2017 — US: LARGE GAINS IN HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH BOOST SPENDING
  • 05.12.2017 — US NET EXPORTS TO DRAG ON Q4 GDP BUT DOMESTIC DEMAND IS STRONG
  • 01.12.2017 — Optimistic ISM US Manufacturing - Another Quarter of Strong CaPex Gains
  • 30.11.2017 — US - FED'S PREFERRED PRICE MEASURE FIRMS AND DISPOSABLE INCOMES PICK UP IN OCTOBER
  • 29.11.2017 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT: SOFT DATA SIGNALS UPSIDE RISK FOR COMING QUARTERS
  • 22.11.2017 — US CORE DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS RISE FOR NINE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS AS INDUSTRIAL SECTOR MAKES STRONG COMEBACK
  • 21.11.2017 — US EXISTING HOME SALES RISE IN OCTOBER, BUT LARGER GAINS EXPECTED AS STORM-DAMAGE REPLACEMENT MATERIALIZES
  • 20.11.2017 — FOUR GERMAN QUESTIONS
  • 16.11.2017 — US: OCT. IP GETS POST-HURRICANE BOOST, MANUFACTURING OPTIMISM MODERATES
  • 15.11.2017 — US: CORE CONSUMER PRICES FIRMING AND RETAIL SALES SOLID IN OCTOBER
  • 14.11.2017 — GERMANY: THE BEST OF THE GOLDEN DECADE
  • 14.11.2017 — EUROZONE GROWTH: EVEN ITALY AND PORTUGAL ARE HELPING
  • 02.11.2017 — BOE BEGINS GRADUAL TIGHTENING AMID DOWNBEAT PRODUCTIVITY OUTLOOK
  • 30.10.2017 — EUROZONE: SURVEY DATA SIGNALS UPSIDE RISK TO H2 GDP OUTLOOK
  • 25.10.2017 — UK GDP GROWTH ACCELERATED IN Q3 - RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK
  • 25.10.2017 — IFO: GERMANY ENJOYS ITS GOLDEN DECADE
  • 24.10.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS POINT TO HEALTHY Q4 START
  • 18.10.2017 — UK: STRONG LABOUR MARKET IN AUGUST, RATE HIKE ON THE WAY
  • 17.10.2017 — RISING INFLATION WARRANTS NOVEMBER RATE HIKE
  • 13.10.2017 — US: SEPTEMBER CORE CPI SOFT AND RETAIL SALES STRONG
  • 04.10.2017 — UK GDP - A LITTLE ACCELERATION IN Q3
  • 29.09.2017 — EUROZONE: ECB READY TO GO DESPITE A SMALL DIP IN CORE INFLATION
  • 28.09.2017 — MORE GOOD NEWS: EUROZONE SENTIMENT RISES TO 10-YEAR HIGH
  • 22.09.2017 — STRONG PMIS SUGGEST EUROZONE GROWTH MAY ACTUALLY HOLD UP IN H2
  • 20.09.2017 — UK: RETAIL SALES SURGE GIVES GREEN LIGHT FOR NOVEMBER BOE HIKE
  • 31.08.2017 — EURZONE UNDERLYING INFLATION SHOWS MORE SIGNS OF LIFE
  • 30.08.2017 — EUROZONE DEFIES STRONG EURO AS SENTIMENT RISES TO 10-YEAR HIGH
  • 24.08.2017 — UK GDP: TEMPORARY FACTORS WEIGH ON Q2 GROWTH, MODEST REBOUND LIKELY
  • 16.08.2017 — UK: STRENGTHENING LABOUR MARKET SIGNALS RATE HIKE SOON
  • 16.08.2017 — EUROZONE GDP: THE FIRMER RECOVERY SPREADS
  • 15.08.2017 — GERMAN GDP: STRNG H1, MODERATION LIKELY IN H2
  • 01.08.2017 — EUROZONE GDP: A FIRMER AND LASTING RECOVERY
  • 31.07.2017 — UNDERLYING EUROZONE INFLATION SHOWS SIGN OF LIFE
  • 26.07.2017 — UK GDP: H1 GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE 2013, IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
  • 25.07.2017 — GERMAN IFO: FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH
  • 24.07.2017 — EUROZONE: SOLID GROWTH AT A LESS EXUBERANT PACE
  • 30.06.2017 — EUROZONE INFLATION LOWER, UNDERLYING PRICE PRESSURES SLOWLY BUILDING
  • 29.06.2017 — ANOTHER EUROZONE SENTIMENT GAUGE SURGES TO A DECADE HIGH
  • 26.06.2017 — THE GERMAN IFO DOES IT AGAIN
  • 23.06.2017 — EUROZONE OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE DESPITE PMI CORRECTION
  • 13.06.2017 — GERMAN PROSPECTS REMAIN FAVOURABLE DESPITE LOWER ZEW
  • 30.05.2017 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT STRONG DESPITE SMALL SLIP IN MAY
  • 25.05.2017 — UK GDP: IMPORT SURGE DRAGS ON GROWTH, DISTRACTS FROM HEALTHY FUNDAMENTALS
  • 23.05.2017 — GERMAN IFO SURGE TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1991 OVERSTATES ACTIVITY
  • 17.05.2017 — UK LABOUR MARKET SOLID IN MARCH - RATE HIKE COMING?
  • 16.05.2017 — EUROZONE: SENTIMENT KNOWS JUST ONE DIRECTION
  • 16.05.2017 — UK: CORE INFLATION STRENGTH IS KEY FOR BOE OUTLOOK
  • 12.05.2017 — GERMAN ECONOMY ENJOYING A LITTLE BOOM
  • 03.05.2017 — EUROZONE RECOVERY GAINS TRACTION
  • 28.04.2017 — UK Q1 GDP: BACK TO REALITY, BUT THE OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE
  • 28.04.2017 — ECB MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING

    The ECB’s monetary stimulus is reaching the real economy. The further advance in loan growth in March points to firm consumer demand and more business investment ahead. 

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 25.04.2017 — EUROZONE: A FIRMER ECONOMIC RECOVERY

    Life is full of risks. Politics could still go badly wrong in France. But with Macron in the pole position to be the next French president, the tail risks in the Eurozone have receded further.

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  • 24.04.2017 — GERMAN IFO CLIMBS FURTHER, STRONG Q1 TO CARRY INTO Q2
  • 24.04.2017 — FRANCE: HOPE SEEMS TO BEAT ANGER

     

    France yearns for change. But what kind of change? After centrist reformer Emmanuel Macron qualified today for the 7 May run-off round of the French presidential election, chances are that France will get the economic reforms it needs to revive its fortunes and catch up with Germany and that France, Germany and their partners will work together to strengthen the cohesion of the Eurozone and the EU.

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  • 24.04.2017 — FRENCH WRAP-UP: THE GOOD NEWS AND THE LESS GOOD NEWS

    Tail risks remain. But most likely, the French election can mark a turning point for France and Europe. If Macron wins on 7 May and manages to forge a coalition of pro-reform forces ‎after the 11 and 18 June parliamentary elections, France, the Eurozone and the EU could benefit significantly over coming years.

    Reform progress in France and Europe, the pro-mainstream precedents set by voters in the Netherlands and France and the likely boost to the European economic outlook could also help to keep the Italian political risks in check.

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  • 24.04.2017 — GERMAN IFO CLIMBS FURTHER, STRONG Q1 TO CARRY INTO Q2

    Germany enjoying a little boom: According to the Ifo survey, the business climate improved in April to the highest since July 2011 (from 112.4 to 112.9). While political risks stemming from the French presidential elections weighed on expectations (down to 105.2, after 105.7), a strong improvement in the assessment of the current situation lifted overall sentiment (121.1 from 119.5 in March, see chart 1).

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  • 21.04.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS CARRY STRONG MOMENTUM INTO Q2
  • 21.04.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS CARRY STRONG MOMENTUM INTO Q2

    Eurozone business activity rises to six-year high, despite political risks stemming from the upcoming French elections. According to flash PMIs, the upswing registered in Q1 may gain further momentum in the second quarter. 

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  • 21.04.2017 — US: SALES OF EXISTING HOMES JUMP TO POST-RECESSION HIGH IN MARCH

    Sales of existing homes rose by 4.4% to an annualized 5.71mn in March, a post-recession high. The strong gains come despite a very short supply of for-sale homes that is placing upward pressure on prices. Home prices increased by a sizable 6.8% yr/yr, a double-edged sword which increases net worth for existing home owners but keeps some potential home buyers on the sidelines.

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  • 20.04.2017 — US REGIONAL MANUFACTURING SENTIMENT WEAKENS BUT UNDERLYING DETAILS SOLID

    The two major regional manufacturing surveys – Empire State and Philadelphia Fed – released thus far in April have revealed an interesting trend with the headline indexes (general business conditions) moving lower, indicating that the post-election euphoria is diminishing, but the underlying components continue to increase or are posting smaller declines than the headline indexes.

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  • 18.04.2017 — UK: 8TH JUNE 'BREXIT' ELECTION RAISES RISK OF 'HARDER' EU EXIT

    PM May seeks to strengthen her mandate: Rebuking previous promises not to hold early elections, Prime Minister Theresa May today announced that she wants to hold a snap general election on 8th June. 

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  • 18.04.2017 — US: SOLID Q1 FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

    The headline GDP number will be unflattering in Q1, due to temporary factors holding back private consumption and possibly the statistical quirkiness that has held down reported Q1 growth. This masks the solid improvement in both housing and business fixed investment which underperformed significantly in prior quarters – a welcomed support to private consumption that was the only real driver of growth in 2016. The data received today provide further support of these recent trends.

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  • 18.04.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: FRENCH AND GERMAN POLLS

    The four-way presidential election race in France has tightened slightly further. Five days ahead of the first round on 23 April, opinion polls show a further gain for ultra-left insurgent Jean-Luc Melenchon to an average of 19.4% after 18.0% five days ago.

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  • 14.04.2017 — SOFT US CPI PARTLY DUE TO ANOMALOUS FACTORS AND CORE RETAIL SALES STRONG

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by a sizable 0.3% m/m (+2.4% yr/yr) in March due to lower retail gasoline prices and a stunning 0.1% m/m decline in the core CPI (excludes food and energy) – the first decline in this metric since January 2010 – pulling the yr/yr gain down 0.2pp to 2.0%. The downward surprise came in prices for wireless telephone services, which fell by 7% m/m - the largest decline in the 20 year history of the series – and subtracted 0.1pp from the headline CPI.

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  • 11.04.2017 — GERMAN SENTIMENT IMPROVES FURTHER: ZEW BACK TO AUGUST 2015 LEVEL
  • 11.04.2017 — UK: RISING INFLATION TAKES A BREATHER - BUT IT WON'T LAST, OR BE THAT BAD
  • 11.04.2017 — UK: RISING INFLATION TAKES A BREATHER - BUT IT WON'T LAST, OR BE THAT BAD

    A temporary breather in March: After accelerating by more than expected in February, inflation stabilised in March (2.3%). But it won’t last. 

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  • 11.04.2017 — GERMAN SENTIMENT IMPROVES FURTHER: ZEW BACK TO AUGUST 2015 LEVEL

    German economy enjoying a little boom: The headline expectations indicator of the ZEW survey jumped to its highest level since August 2015. 

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  • 07.04.2017 — US MARCH JOBS SLOWDOWN ATTRIBUTABLE TO BAD WEATHER

    The BLS’ measure of US job growth surprised to the downside in March, rising by a meager 98k, as an unseasonably severe snowstorm during the survey period distorted estimates. Besides the weak increase in establishment payrolls, the other details in the BLS’ Employment Report were solid, consistent with other statistical releases and surveys that suggest an improving economy. The unemployment rate fell 0.2pp to 4.5%, its lowest level since May 2007.

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  • 05.04.2017 — SOLID PMIS FOR Q1 SHOW THE UK STARTED 2017 ON A FIRM FOOTING
  • 05.04.2017 — SOLID PMIS FOR Q1 SHOW THE UK STARTED 2017 ON A FIRM FOOTING

    Growth is normalising after a temporary - above-trend - acceleration in H2 2016: The surprise surge in real GDP growth in the second half of 2016 probably moderated to more normal levels at the start of the year.

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  • 05.04.2017 — US NATIONAL BUSINESS SENTIMENT MIXED IN MARCH

    The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) measure of national non-manufacturing sentiment fell more than expected in March (-2.4pts to 55.2) but remained positive in the expansionary territory, while its manufacturing index remained elevated (-0.5pt to 57.2). Unlike other regional manufacturing surveys, the ISMs cover sentiment for the full month, so some reaction to the healthcare policy reform failure was at least partially captured in the surveys.

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  • 03.04.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: THE BREXIT GAP, FRENCH AND GERMAN POLITICS

    Even in the best case, the uncertainty over the UK’s post-Brexit access to the EU27 market won’t be over when Britain leaves the EU on 29 March 2019. The two-year divorce process from the EU27 may be starting with a little misunderstanding as to what exactly the two sides can achieve until then. 

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  • 31.03.2017 — EUROZONE INFLATION SLIPPING AGAIN AS OIL PRICE EFFECTS FADE

    Not there yet: The market’s recent excitement about inflation risks in the Eurozone were premature. In March, headline inflation dropped from 2.0% yoy in February to 1.5% as past changes in costs of energy and food dropped out of the headline measure.

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  • 31.03.2017 — UK: HOUSEHOLD APPETITES FOR MAJOR PURCHASES HIGH DESPITE EXPECTED RISE IN INFLATION

    The risks to real household spending from rising inflation are grossly overstated. The latest GfK survey for March chimes with our key view, that rising inflation will not do too much damage to household spending appetites over the medium-term.

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  • 31.03.2017 — EUROZONE INFLATION SLIPPING AGAIN AS OIL PRICE EFFECTS FADE
  • 31.03.2017 — US PCE DEFLATOR EXCEEDS FED’S TARGET, BUT PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SOFT

    The US PCE deflator rose to 2.1% yr/yr in February, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target for the first time since April 2012, while the core PCE deflator is now up 1.8% yr/yr; the upward drift in inflation suggests continued Fed rate increases are appropriate. US private consumption rose only 0.1% in February and declined by 0.1% in real terms, likely due to transitory factors. Expect a bounce back in March and upcoming months: fundamentals such as improving incomes, solid job growth, buoyant confidence and rising household net worth are positive.

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  • 30.03.2017 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT IN Q1 HITS SIX YEAR HIGH

    Momentum is on the rise. Despite marginal slippage in March, economic sentiment in the Eurozone remains well above its long-term average. 

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  • 30.03.2017 — EUROZONE SENTIMENT IN Q1 HITS SIX YEAR HIGH
  • 30.03.2017 — US CORPORATE PROFITS ROSE MODESTLY IN 2016Q4

    US corporate profits rose modestly in 2016 Q4 capping a strong year with a moderation in momentum. Before taxes and adjusted for inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption allowance (CCA) adjustments, operating profits rose an annualized 2.1% in Q4, following a more robust rise of annualized 25.4% q/q in Q3.  Yr/yr, operating profits rose a strong 8.8%.

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  • 29.03.2017 — THE BREXIT BRIEF

    Today, the UK will file for divorce from the European Union. This is the worst setback ever for the process of European integration that started with a six-nation coal and steel community in 1952. 

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 28.03.2017 — US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURGED IN EARLY MARCH (PRE-HEALTHCARE REFORM FAILURE)

    The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index jumped by 9.5pts in early March to 125.6 – a 16yr high. The cutoff date for this survey was March 16th, before the Trump administration and Congress’ failure to enact healthcare reform. Consumers held a very optimistic view about labor market conditions, future income and upgraded their buying plans for durables and autos.

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 24.03.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SUGGEST GROWTH ACCELERATED IN Q1

    Spring is coming and Eurozone firms are cheerful – despite the political risks. The preliminary PMI composite improved from 56.0 in February to 56.7 in March. 

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 24.03.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SUGGEST GROWTH ACCELERATED IN Q1
  • 23.03.2017 — EUROZONE CONSUMERS SHRUG OFF INFLATION CONCERNS

    Mood among Eurozone consumers in March recovers from its February dip. Consumer confidence rose to -5.0 in March, after -6.2 in February and -4.8 in January. Taken the three months together, the average for Q1 2017 advanced to the highest level since Q2 2007. 

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 23.03.2017 — UK: STRONG REBOUND IN RETAIL SALES IN FEBRUARY, RISKS FROM INFLATION ARE EXAGGERATED

    The oil and employment boost is fading: The 4.4% average annual growth in retail sales ex. autos during 2015 and 2016, and the surge to 5.8% yoy in H2 2016, was totally unsustainable. Now that the boost from cheap oil is over and employment gains slow as the labour market reaches full employment, household spending will return to more normal patterns. 

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  • 23.03.2017 — EUROZONE CONSUMERS SHRUG OFF INFLATION CONCERNS
  • 23.03.2017 — UK: STRONG REBOUND IN RETAIL SALES IN FEBRUARY, RISKS FROM INFLATION ARE EXAGGERATED
  • 22.03.2017 — US: TIGHT SUPPLY OF HOMES POINTS TO NEED FOR ROBUST CONSTRUCTION

    Sales of US existing homes fell by 3.7% to an annualized 5.48mn in February after reaching a post-recession high of 5.69mn in January. The very tight supply of for-sale homes is placing upward pressure on prices and constraining sales. On the other hand, the tight supply and favorable demographics both point to the need for an acceleration in residential construction which is still low.

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  • 21.03.2017 — UK: UPSIDE SURPRISE ON HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION INCREASES PRESSURE ON BOE TO HIKE

    The price of Brexit: Even before Brexit creates any barriers to trade – at least two years away – UK households are already forking out more for German cars, Italian cheese and French wine. Thanks to the 13% fall in trade-weighted sterling since the Brexit vote (down 12% versus the euro), prices of imported goods are rising sharply. In February, headline inflation (CPI) hit its highest rate – 2.3% yoy - since September 2013, increasing from 1.8% in January, and beating expectations of 2.1%.

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  • 21.03.2017 — UK: UPSIDE SURPRISE ON HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION INCREASES PRESSURE ON BOE TO HIKE
  • 17.03.2017 — FRANCE AND ITALY: RISK UPDATE

    Jointly with a select group of investors, I’ve just spent almost three days discussing the economic and political outlook for France and Italy with senior officials from both countries in London, Paris and Rome. We visited the finance ministries, Banca d'Italia, the OECD, industry and banking associations, and the Italian parliament. We also spoke to a number of senior consultants including a French professor specialising on constitutional law. 

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  • 16.03.2017 — INDICATORS ON US OUTLOOK REMAIN STRONG

    Key US economic data on the outlook continue to come in strong. Although readings on some aspects of current economic activity are mixed, and some transitory factors likely will hold down Q1 GDP growth, the outlook for stronger growth is favorable. Two key manufacturing surveys received for the first half of March – Philly Fed and Empire State – suggest that firms continue to be exceedingly optimistic about the US economy. Housing starts have exceeded an annualized 1.25 million units for the last three months after averaging under 1.2million in 2016. 

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  • 16.03.2017 — DUTCH RELIEF: THE IMPACT OF THE VOTE

    A victory for common sense and a great start for Europe's election season. Unlike the voters in the US and the UK, who fell for Donald Trump and the Brexiteers last year, a vast majority of Dutch voters opted for the pro-European mainstream yesterday.

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  • 16.03.2017 — UK: MPC MARCH MINUTES SHOW THE BOE SHIFTING FROM NEUTRAL TO HAWKISH

    Hawkishness creeping into the MPC: While the BoE’s policy stance did not change today, there was a notable shift in the guidance for future policy amid continued strong growth and rising inflation. Kristen Forbes, a known hawk, voted for a 25bps rate hike. Meanwhile ‘some’ committee members noted that given the resilient economic performance since the Brexit vote it would ‘take very little further upside news on the prospects for activity or inflation to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted’.

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  • 15.03.2017 — US: HIGHER INFLATION, OPTIMISTIC SENTIMENT, SPARKLESS ACTIVITY DATA

    The economic data continue to reflect better sentiment and an acceleration in inflation, but unimpressive improvement in the activity/“hard” data. The Fed is on track to increase rates at its meeting later today and there is some upside risk on its future policy rate path. Even if activity data remain sluggish, as long as employment and inflation continue to improve at a robust pace, the Fed will be forced to act.

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  • 15.03.2017 — UK LABOUR MARKET: UNEMPLOYMENT HEADS LOWER WHILE WAGE GROWTH DIPS

    Solid labour market in January despite a little disappointment on wage growth. The headline unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in January from 4.8% in December, driven by strong gains in employment (92k 3m/3m). Meanwhile, average weekly earnings growth ex. bonus surprised on the downside, falling to 2.3% yoy from 2.6% yoy in December.

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  • 15.03.2017 — UK LABOUR MARKET: UNEMPLOYMENT HEADS LOWER WHILE WAGE GROWTH DIPS
  • 14.03.2017 — UK: HEADING FOR A HARD BREXIT AND SCOTTISH EXIT?

    No strings attached: That parliament has passed the Article 50 bill giving government unconditional permission to kick off the two-year divorce proceedings with the EU is a major victory for Prime Minister Theresa May. 

    Sturgeon versus May: SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she wants to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. 

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  • 10.03.2017 — UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: UPTURN CONTINUES DESPITE SMALL DIP IN JANUARY
  • 10.03.2017 — US: SOLID FEBRUARY JOBS REPORT

    US establishments added 235k jobs in February, lowering the unemployment rate to 4.7% and increasing pay for their employees 0.2% m/m, lifting the yr/yr rise to 2.8%. This solid employment report keeps the Fed on track to hike rates at its March meeting, but adds no additional clues on the future path of policy. Two additional hikes in 2017 – in September and December - continue to seem most likely. 

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  • 10.03.2017 — UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: UPTURN CONTINUES DESPITE SMALL DIP IN JANUARY

    Two steps forward, one step back - but that’s the way it goes: The little monthly correction in industrial production in January doesn’t change the broad based upward trend. 

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  • 08.03.2017 — UK BUDGET 2017: PUBLIC FINANCES HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT LACK EMPHASIS ON INVESTMENT

    From a macroeconomic point of view, Budget 2017 provides us with very little to get excited about. Capital spending continues to fall short of what the economy needs as it faces slower long-term growth from Brexit.

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  • 08.03.2017 — US: FEBRUARY ADP JOBS REPORT SHOWS OPTIMISM FEEDING THROUGH TO HIRING

    ADP/Moody’s estimate that US private payrolls increased by 298k in February, suggesting that the BLS will report similarly strong gains in its monthly jobs report on Friday. Optimistic sentiment is feeding through to hiring with small businesses, manufacturers and construction firms all increasing payrolls at a robust pace in recent months. With labor markets tightening, continued job gains of this magnitude will fuel fears of an overheating economy and force the Fed to hike more than currently expected.

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  • 06.03.2017 — UK BUDGET 2017 PREVIEW – POLICY CHANGES UNLIKELY TO ALTER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    Since 2010 UK fiscal policy has been neither here nor there. The economy is in its 8th year of expansion, yet the cyclical adjusted deficit is still close to 3%.

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  • 02.03.2017 — EUROZONE INFLATION HITS 2%, UNDERLYING PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED

    Mind the gap. It’s the labour market, stupid. The ECB will not have to rethink the thrust of its policies.

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  • 02.03.2017 — EUROZONE INFLATION HITS 2%, UNDERLYING PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED
  • 01.03.2017 — US PCE DEFLATOR ADVANCES 1.9% IN JANUARY PLACING PRESSURE ON FED TO ACT

    The Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, the PCE deflator advanced 0.4% m/m and 1.9% yr/yr in January, the highest annual pace since October 2012, putting it right at the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The PCE deflator has made significant progress over the last year (from +1.1% in January 2016 to +1.9% in January 2017) with energy prices finally making a positive contribution (+11.8% in January).

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  • 01.03.2017 — UK PMI MANUFACTURING SIGNALS SOLID GROWTH IN FEBRUARY DESPITE SMALL SLIP

    A rising tide lifts all boats: The UK manufacturing PMI slipped a little in February to 54.6 (exp. 55) after hitting a two and a half year high in December (55.9). Nonetheless, the data were strong across the board. Output and orders rose solidly as UK producers benefitted from growing demand at home, and critically, from abroad, as new export orders rose for the ninth consecutive month – a signal that the cyclical upturn in global demand is building momentum. The headline number was well above the long-term average of 51.6. The survey reported solid demand for labour and increased capital investment. While input costs remained at a high level, they dipped from the January high. 

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  • 28.02.2017 — UK UPDATE: SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE, ARTICLE 50, SOLID NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

    Support for Scottish independence has fallen since the Brexit vote: Could Scotland leave the UK in order to stay in the EU upon Brexit? According to some media reports, PM Theresa May is readying for a possible second Scottish independence referendum.

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  • 27.02.2017 — US: PAUSE IN DURABLE GOODS SECTOR ACTIVITY AT START OF 2017

    Beyond the strong 1.8% gain in total durable goods orders, the January report on durable goods was generally weak. Core shipments, which matters for GDP declined in January, outweighing the upward revision to the prior month. Important to not overreact to monthly activity data given high volatility. Moreover, the very optimistic business sentiment suggests a rebound in coming months is more likely than not.

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  • 22.02.2017 — GERMAN IFO: SHRUGGING OFF THE TRUMP EFFECT

    The German industry may be concerned, but definitely not scared. When less optimistic expectations weighed on the German Ifo business confidence in January, we alluded to the possibility of a little Trump scare. Today’s reading for February shows that the sharp decline in forward-looking optimism in the previous month was just a blip.

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  • 22.02.2017 — GERMAN IFO: SHRUGGING OFF THE TRUMP EFFECT
  • 21.02.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SIGNAL STRONG START TO 2017

    More evidence for a strong start into 2017 as activity surges to near six year high: The composite PMI rose to 56.0 in February, after 54.4 in January. The pick-up in activity was driven by record-high levels in both the manufacturing and service sector (70-month and 69-month high, respectively). 

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  • 21.02.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SIGNAL STRONG START TO 2017
  • 20.02.2017 — ONE MONTH OF TRUMP: A VIEW FROM ABROAD

    It’s Presidents' Day in the US. Reflecting on one month of Trump, Europe is breathing a small sigh of relief: it could have been worse.

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  • 20.02.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: FRENCH, ITALIAN AND GERMAN POLITICS

    President Marine Le Pen? The only chance for the anti-EU right-winger to win the French election would be if she would face an equally unelectable candidate in the run-off round on 7 May. Fortunately, this remains unlikely.

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  • 17.02.2017 — UK OUTLOOK RESILIENT: FIRST RATE HIKE IN 2018

    Firm growth outlook despite clear risks: The UK economy has carried significant momentum into 2017. The second estimate of Q4 2016 GDP (to be published on 22 February) will likely show that growth accelerated to 0.7% qoq from 0.6% qoq in Q3.

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  • 16.02.2017 — ECB MINUTES: STEADY HAND, BUT RISKS MORE BALANCED

    After a rather uneventful meeting and press conference on 19 January, reading the tea leaves at the ECB minutes was unlikely to provide materially new information. Still, the minutes did shed some revealing light on the current monetary policy stance of Draghi and his Governing Council colleagues:

    1.The ECB may deviate from the capital key when it comes to purchases of sovereign bonds as part of QE

    2.Downside risks to economic outlook have receded

     

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  • 14.02.2017 — EUROZONE MACRO UPDATE: GROWTH AT TREND, OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE

    Eurozone Q4 GDP (2nd reading) – encouraging, broad-based growth at trend
    German Q4 GDP (1st reading) – growth accelerates to 0.4% qoq, outlook solid
    German ZEW – sentiment softer, but at high level
    Italian Q4 GDP (1st reading) – sluggish growth, political uncertainty weighs on consumption

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  • 14.02.2017 — EUROZONE MACRO UPDATE: GROWTH AT TREND, OUTLOOK REMAINS POSITIVE
  • 03.02.2017 — US: STRONG JOB GROWTH AND DATA SHOULD ENCOURAGE FED TO CONSIDER MARCH HIKE

    US nonfarm payrolls increased 227k in January, growing above its recent trend (nonfarm payroll growth averaged 148k in Q4), as the recent surge in sentiment appears to be feeding through to economic activity and hiring. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1pp to 4.8%, rising for the right reason – an increase in the labor force participation rate. On the flip side, average hourly earnings disappointed in January, growing by a slight 0.1% m/m, placing the yr/yr gain lower at 2.5%.

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  • 02.02.2017 — UK: BOE AT RISK OF FALLING BEHIND THE CURVE AFTER MAJOR UPGRADES TO GROWTH OUTLOOK

    The Bank of England (BoE) is running the risk of falling behind the curve. The sharp falls in survey measures of economic activity immediately after the Brexit vote provided a strong and valid case for a monetary ease last August. But circumstances can change.

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  • 01.02.2017 — UK: BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW - EARLY SIGNS OF HAWKISHNESS?

    With some words of Brexit-related caution, the Bank of England (BoE) may surprise with a more hawkish tone at tomorrow’s Inflation Report as it revises up its near-term growth forecast and highlights growing underlying inflationary risks.

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  • 01.02.2017 — UK: BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW - EARLY SIGNS OF HAWKISHNESS?

    With some words of Brexit-related caution, the Bank of England (BoE) may surprise with a more hawkish tone at tomorrow’s Inflation Report as it revises up its near-term growth forecast and highlights growing underlying inflationary risks.

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  • 31.01.2017 — EUROZONE MACRO UPDATE: ENCOURAGING ACROSS THE BENCH

    Economic fundamentals are encouraging, output is expanding at around trend, labour market continues to improve and core inflation will follow suit, but remains well below target.

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  • 31.01.2017 — US: FED’S PREFERRED MEASURE OF WAGES IMPROVED ONLY SLIGHTLY IN 2016

    The US Employment Cost Index (ECI), a quarterly measure of wage compensation favored by the Fed, advanced 2.2% in 2016, barely above the 2.1% gain registered in both 2014 and 2015. The strong ECI gains were concentrated in mainly low-paying and less-productive jobs. The continued modest gains in the ECI support the Fed’s perception that it can take its time in normalizing monetary policy. However, anticipate that fiscal policy reforms and stronger economic growth raise the risk that the Fed falls behind the curve.

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  • 30.01.2017 — US CONSUMERS GAINING CONFIDENCE IN FINANCES, ENERGY FINALLY BOOSTING PRICES

    US nominal private consumption rose 0.5%m/m in December, outpacing the 0.3%m/m rise in personal income. The almost two-year low in the personal saving rate is consistent with growing consumer confidence. PCE inflation rose 1.6% yr/yr in December 2016, a full percentage point higher than its 0.6% yr/yr rise in December 2015 likely enabling the Fed to proceed with its rate normalization.

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  • 27.01.2017 — US DURABLE GOODS SECTOR FINALLY ESCAPING SLUMP

    The December durable goods report suggests improved business sentiment may be already feeding through to better capital spending. The durable goods sector stands to be one of the sectors that will benefit most from proposed fiscal reform. An acceleration in business investment is central to our forecast for a pickup in economic growth.

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  • 26.01.2017 — US: HIGHER RATES LIKELY TO HURT HOUSING IN FIRST HALF OF 2017

    Despite declines in sales of new and existing homes in December, residential fixed investment likely rebounded in Q4 after falling in the prior two quarters. This strong rebound may be somewhat short-lived due to the approximate 60bp jump in US mortgage interest rates since the US elections. Pick up in wage growth and a stronger economy should counter the negative impact from higher rates in the medium term.

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  • 26.01.2017 — WHAT BREXIT? UK SUSTAINED ABOVE TREND GROWTH IN Q4, DRIVEN BY STRONG GROWTH IN SERVICES
  • 25.01.2017 — GERMAN IFO SETBACK: A LITTLE TRUMP SCARE?

    Is Trump scaring German industry? Driven by less optimistic expectations, German Ifo business confidence fell back in January following a strong surge late last year.

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  • 25.01.2017 — EARLY ELECTIONS IN ITALY?

    Italian politics poses the biggest single tail risk to the stability of the Eurozone in 2017, as it did in the second half of last year.

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  • 24.01.2017 — GERMAN POLITICS: A CENTRE-LEFT ALTERNATIVE TO MERKEL?

    Merkel at risk? Germany’s major centre-left party SPD has started the campaign for the 24 September federal election with a sort-of surprise.

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  • 24.01.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SIGNAL SOLID START TO 2017

    Getting off to a good start: PMIs for the Eurozone and its major economies remained stable at a high level at the start of the year after strong gains in recent months.

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  • 24.01.2017 — SUPREME COURT BACKS PARLIAMENTARY VOTE - HARD BREXIT RISK FALLS

    Supreme Court ruling nudges the Brexit pendulum slightly towards a softer Brexit. Since a majority of MPs are pro-EU, anything that raises the influence of parliament on the Brexit process boosts the prospects of a less hard exit from the EU. Today’s 8-3 vote by the 11 Supreme Court judges, backing the High Court ruling that parliament must take a vote on triggering Article 50, is a positive for the long-term UK economic outlook. By damaging trade, migration and investment with the EU, its biggest market, Brexit will reduce the UK’s long run potential growth rate to 1.8% pa from its current rate of 2.2% in our base case. Today’s judgement tilts the risk to our long-term outlook a little to the upside. The Supreme Court also ruled that government will not need the assent of the devolved parliaments of Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland before triggering Article 50. 

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  • 23.01.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: TRUMP, BREXIT, FRENCH AND ITALIAN POLITICS

    TRUMP: A DIVISIVE START
    UK: SUPREME COURT RULING, MAY MEETS TRUMP
    FRANCE: ADVANTAGE MACRON?
    ITALY: MIND THE COURT

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  • 20.01.2017 — UK RETAIL SALES: SOLID TREND DESPITE DECEMBER CORRECTION

    THE CONSUMER IS KING

    UK consumers are enjoying life, helping the economy to cope with the Brexit shock. Unfortunately, this may not last much longer. The solid growth in retail sales of 1.4% qoq in Q4 (1.9% qoq in Q3) suggests the UK economy ended 2016 on a stable footing. The ten year average quarterly growth rate is 0.5%. Retail sales provide the timeliest official indicator of household demand and spending which makes up two-thirds of GDP.  The modest slowdown in the quarterly growth rate supports our call that GDP growth slowed to around its trend rate of 0.5% qoq in the final quarter of last year from 0.6% qoq in the third quarter. The first estimate of Q4 GDP will be published next Thursday. 

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  • 20.01.2017 — UK RETAIL SALES: SOLID TREND DESPITE DECEMBER CORRECTION
  • 19.01.2017 — ECB: STEADY AS SHE GOES

    No change, no news. Upon leaving all interest rates and the key parameters of its asset purchase programme unchanged, the ECB did not signal any need to rethink its policy soon.

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  • 19.01.2017 — PRESIDENT TRUMP - A VIEW FROM ABROAD

    The world is entering a period of heightened opportunities and risks. On balance, we expect the switch from political gridlock between the US Congress and the White House to results-oriented co-operation between a Republican majority in Congress and a Republican US President to yield serious pro-growth reforms that will outweigh the damage which Donald Trump’s protectionist inclinations, his “rule by Twitter” and his other unconventional traits may do.

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  • 18.01.2017 — US: PICK UP IN ENERGY PRICES PUSHES HEADLINE CPI UP TO CORE CPI AT END OF 2016

    The US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% yr/yr in December, climbing closer to the core CPI (excludes food and energy) as the drag from energy prices has diminished. Rents and medical care service prices pushed up core inflation in 2016. If the anticipated fiscal reforms generate an acceleration in economic growth, businesses will have greater pricing power, and wages will accelerate. The Fed will be on the lookout.

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  • 18.01.2017 — US IP FALTERED IN 2016 BUT REFORM LIKELY TO CAUSE TURNAROUND IN COMING YEARS

    US industrial production ended 2016 on a positive note, posting its first yr/yr gain since August 2015. However, details suggest that underlying manufacturing demand is still weak and that it will take some time for better sentiment to feed through to actual activity. Pro-business fiscal reform and higher energy prices should lead to a rebound in industrial production in 2017.

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  • 18.01.2017 — UK: SIGNS POINT TO FULL EMPLOYMENT AS WAGE GROWTH ACCELERATES
  • 17.01.2017 — ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF MAY'S SPEECH: CRUCIAL DETAILS STILL UNKNOWN

    Besides offering a roundup of May and her Conservative government’s broad ambitions for Brexit, most of which had been leaked or announced much earlier, we learned nothing new today that adds any colour to our economic outlook for Brexit. Critical details on the government’s intended future rules for migration, or its ambitions for the length and nature of a transitional agreement for Brexit, are still missing. Such details are crucial in order to better estimate the level of access the UK will get to the EU market – think single market-migration trade-off – and the long terms consequences of Brexit.

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  • 16.01.2017 — UK macro: the week ahead

    THERESA MAY SPEAKS ON BREXIT STRATEGY – VEERING TOWARD A HARD(ISH) BREXIT (TUESDAY 17TH JANUARY)

     

    INFLATION – UP, UP, AND AWAY (TUESDAY 17TH JANUARY)

     

    LABOUR MARKET – STILL GOING STRONG (WEDNESDAY 18TH JANUARY)

     

    RETAIL SALES – HOW LONG CAN THE UPTURN IN CONSUMER SPENDING BE SUSTAINED? (FRIDAY 20TH JANUARY)

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  • 13.01.2017 — US DECEMBER RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS TILT SOFT, BUT FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT

    Total US retail sales ended the year at a fast pace, advancing 0.6% m/m in December, driven by motor vehicles and parts, elsewhere sales tilted soft with control retail sales up only 0.2% m/m. Holiday shopping season was likely strong, with nonstore retail sales (includes online sales) up a strong 1.3% m/m and up 12% qtr/qtr (annualized). Future household consumption is setting up to be robust with likely cuts in individual income tax rates and improving consumer fundamentals.

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  • 12.01.2017 — ECB DECEMBER MINUTES INDICATE DIVISION AND UNCERTAINTY FOR ROAD AHEAD

    The minutes of the December Governing Council meeting suggest a shift in the ECB’s assessment of the balance of risks. The shift led the ECB to send a balanced message of continued support for longer, at a reduced amount. As Draghi had stressed already in the press conference following the monetary policy decision there was no discussion of tapering.

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  • 06.01.2017 — US DECEMBER JOBS REPORT SOLID ON ALL FRONTS

    The Employment Report for December was solid.  New job gains slowed to 156k in December, below its recent average, but there were net upward revisions to previous months. Average wages jumped 0.4%, lifting its yr/yr rise to 2.9%. While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, partially reversing its prior decline, the unemployment rate remains near its natural rate. 

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  • 06.01.2017 — HAPPY NEW YEAR: EUROZONE SENTIMENT SURGES TO POST-CRISIS RECORD
  • 06.01.2017 — UPTURN IN GERMAN MANUFACTURING DESPITE NOVEMBER CORRECTION OF FACTORY ORDERS
  • 19.12.2016 — GERMAN ECONOMY IN FESTIVE MOOD, AND IT’S HERE TO STAY

    Christmas is coming and Germany has good reasons to crack a bottle of champagne on New Year’s Eve.

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  • 14.11.2016 — UK update: economic outlook, Supreme Court hearing and infrastructure spending

    Since the UK voted to leave the EU five months ago, the economy has held up much better than expected, probably owing to the healthy household fundamentals heading into the vote. As we have argued before, it is the long-run risks that need to be watched closely. Through less trade, investment and migration with its biggest market, the EU, Brexit represents a long-term supply-side shock for the UK. On the political side, the apparent lack of progress on a Brexit strategy and the unforeseen hurdles before triggering Article 50 are concerning. They reflect a complacency and lack of planning by the government before the referendum and do not bode well heading into the Brexit-negotiations with an increasingly frustrated EU-27. The stark difference between how the currency market has reacted compared to UK households reflects this economic and political divergence since the vote – see Chart 1.

    In this update, we cover the three key themes for the coming months: (1) the economic outlook, (2) the Supreme Court hearing on Article 50, and (3) what to expect in terms of infrastructure spending at the 23 November Autumn Statement.

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  • 09.11.2016 — TRUMP IN THE LEAD: SERIOUS UNCERTAINTY AHEAD

    Donald Trump will be the next US president. Republicans have also won the Congressional elections, keeping a significant majority in the House of Representatives and winning the Senate as well.

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  • 08.11.2016 — GERMAN PRODUCTION: CORRECTION, BUT TREND REMAINS UPWARDS

    Despite a significant correction in September after an even stronger rise in August, German industrial output continues to trend up.

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  • 04.11.2016 — ALWAYS READ THE SMALL PRINT: BOE INFLATION FORECAST IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO FX RISK

    Some underlying assumptions about the future are required for any type of economic forecast. But they need to be understood in order to properly interpret the forecasts.

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  • 04.11.2016 — SOLID US OCTOBER JOBS REPORT

    The September employment report was all-round solid, with net new 161k jobs and revisions to August and September adding +44k. Average hourly wage growth picked up to 0.4% on the month (+2.8% yr/yr) and aggregate hours worked advanced 0.2%. Both point to solid gains in total personal incomes in October which should support private consumption. The solid improvement in wages and employment gains point decidedly toward a hike by the FOMC in December. 

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  • 03.11.2016 — US PRODUCTIVITY SHOWS SOLID GAINS IN Q3 BUT LONGER TREND REMAINS WEAK

    US real nonfarm business productivity rose by 3.1% q/q in Q3 due to strong Q3 GDP growth, but was flat on a year-on-year basis.Productivity has been an enigma in this economic recovery, growing well below long-term trend. Low productivity growth will lead to shallow path of Fed interest rate increases.

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  • 03.11.2016 — BOE ON HOLD AS NEAR-TERM GROWTH OUTLOOK RAISED - CAUTIONS ON TOLERANCE TO HIGHER INFLATION

    The better-than-expected near-term economic performance kept the BoE on hold its November meeting. The BoE also removed its previous signal for a second rate cut in 2016 - in line with expectations.

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  • 03.11.2016 — HIGH COURT RULING COULD MATERIALLY CHANGE BREXIT CALCULUS - PLUS ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

    It’s not over yet. Today’s High Court ruling that the British government requires parliamentary approval to begin the UK’s exit from the EU – trigger Article 50 – has the potential to materially change the calculus of Brexit.

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  • 02.11.2016 — BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW – AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE STOCK

    Better safe than sorry: Who knows what might have happened if the Bank of England (BoE) had not eased monetary policy so aggressively some three months ago at the August Inflation Report.  But it’s probably safe to say, given that the economy has weathered the near-term confidence shock well and markets have largely taken the Brexit-vote in their stride, that the BoE’s actions have probably done some good.

     

    But the UK’s better-than-expected economic performance since the vote has removed the need for the BoE to act again.

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  • 31.10.2016 — EUROZONE GDP: STEADY GROWTH AT A SATISFACTORY PACE

    Steady as she goes. Largely shrugging off concerns about Brexit and other political risks, the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.34% qoq in Q3, roughly in line with the 0.3% qoq consensus and slightly above the 0.29% qoq pace of Q2.

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  • 27.10.2016 — UK Q3 GDP: BREXIT VOTE IMPACT - NO DOOM, SOME GLOOM INSTEAD OF A BOOM

    The first estimate of Q3 GDP showed that the economy expanded by 0.5% qoq – at a faster rate than our own above consensus call of 0.4% qoq.

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  • 25.10.2016 — GERMAN UPSWING GAINS MOMENTUM AS IFO IMPROVES FURTHER

    Shrugging off earlier concerns about emerging markets and Brexit, Germany’s economic upturn looks set to gain momentum in coming months.

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  • 24.10.2016 — EUROZONE PMIS POINT TO STRONGEST GROWTH SO FAR IN 2016

    Economic growth in the Eurozone accelerated at the start of Q4 according PMI data. The October flash reading of the PMI composite – a good measure of the current state of the economy – reached its highest level so far this year, led by an uptick in Germany.

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  • 20.10.2016 — October ECB press conference: Come back in December

    At today’s press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Governing Council will ‘define’ its medium-term monetary policy at the December meeting. Draghi responded to questions on any aspect of what the ECB could do in December with ‘it wasn’t discussed’. This decidedly neutral response means that the ECB, as in September, had no intention of changing or redirecting current market expectations. Markets expect the ECB to announce an extension its current QE program at the December meeting. The potential for market dislocations and volatility if the ECB didn’t meet market expectations come December would be high. That the ECB didn’t look to alter market expectations is significant - an extension of QE beyond March 2017 therefore is very likely.

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  • 19.10.2016 — US: SHARP DROP IN HOUSING STARTS IN SEPTEMBER, Q4 REBOUND EXPECTED

    US housing starts fell sharply in September due to an anomalous decline in multifamily starts as single family starts rose. Multifamily building permits rose to their highest level in almost a year and suggest that September’s drop-off was temporary. The outlook remains constructive on housing as fundamentals are solid.

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  • 18.10.2016 — UK INFLATION REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER 2014

    Headline inflation increased to 1.0% yoy in September, the highest rate since November 2014, up from 0.6% in August, and above expectations of 0.9%.

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  • 17.10.2016 — US: SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SEPTEMBER'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BUT SECTOR REMAINS FRAGILE

    US Industrial Production advanced slightly by 0.1% m/m in September, with only one major category (utilities) declining. Manufacturing production, excluding autos, rose by 0.2% m/m in September but was down slightly on the quarter, reflecting continued weakness in broader factory activity.

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  • 27.07.2016 — Economic and political consequences of attacks in Europe

    Our core theme for Europe in 2016 is that we need to watch politics first, then economics. Brexit has been a realisation of such political risk.  As European nations debate how to move forward, including how to negotiate with the UK on the details of its exit from the EU, the spate of attacks may contribute to the changed political environment.  While the attacks could strengthen the ties between European nations, increasing cooperation on security and foreign policy issues to present a united front to the challenges, the opposite may occur.  Right-wing populists could heighten their arguments to limit migration and encourage retreat from European co-operation.  At a minimum, there will be more pressure on European leaders who are striving to maintain cohesion in the face of rising concerns among citizens. The attacks also carry economic risks.

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  • 12.07.2016 — UK: ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF PRIME MINISTER MAY

    Theresa May will replace David Cameron as UK Prime Minister on Wednesday. In this flash we discuss the key economic implications relating to her appointment.

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  • 03.06.2016 — BREXIT UPDATE: THE ECONOMIC MYTHS THAT CONCEAL REALITY (CONTINUED)

    Ahead of the UK’s ‘in or out’ European Union (EU) referendum on 23 June 2016, the debate about the costs and benefits of EU membership is often shrouded in myths rather than driven by facts. In a series of brief reports, we contrast such myths with reality.

    In this analysis, we focus on the myths to which the debate has recently shifted: (1) the staple argument of the Leave campaign, EU migration and its effect on public services and housing, (2) Britain’s understanding of the European project, and (3) potential post-Brexit opportunities with the Commonwealth.

     

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  • 11.05.2016 — THE ECONOMICS OF BREXIT: A GERMAN VIEW

    We see a 35% risk of Brexit. The British ‘in or out’ EU referendum on 23 June poses the top economic and political risk for Europe this year. Germany would love the UK to stay in the European Union. The UK is simply part of Europe. Managing relations with the UK is much easier in the established framework of the EU than it would be on an awkward bilateral basis.

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  • 22.04.2016 — BREXIT UPDATE: THE ECONOMIC MYTHS THAT CONCEAL REALITY

    Ahead of the UK referendum about staying in or leaving the European Union (EU) on 23 June 2016, the debate about the costs and benefits of EU membership is often shrouded in myths rather than driven by facts or reasonable arguments. In a series of brief reports, we will contrast such myths with reality in the coming eight weeks.

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  • 16.11.2015 — AFTER PARIS: NOTES ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT

    The long-term economic impact is difficult to judge. A lot will depend how forceful the West now reacts to the challenge. Near-term, we do not expect any significant break to the established economic trends in Europe, that is to a mediocre economic upswing led mostly by private consumption. We look for Eurozone growth to return to its 1.7% trend over the course of 2016 after a dip in 2H 2015 caused by declining exports to some major emerging markets.

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  • 03.09.2015 — UK ECONOMIC UPDATE: SERVICES PMI SURPRISES TO THE DOWNSIDE

    Key services indicator points to slight dip in August. The Markit/CIPS PMI index for August came in at 55.6, below expectations of 57.6 and at its weakest rate for 27 months. This is not a serious cause for concern.

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  • 02.09.2015 — UK ECONOMIC UPDATE: CONSTRUCTION REGAINS ITS BALANCE

    After a sharp dip in spring PMI data suggest that the stability in Q2 is carrying over into Q3. The headline index came in at 57.3, slightly below our expectations of 57.5, but up on the previous month of 57.1. With the headline rate above 50.0 for 27 consecutive months, construction is experiencing the longest duration of unbroken growth for over seven years.

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  • 31.08.2015 — ECONOMIC CALENDAR: WEEK OF 31 AUGUST

    • Eurozone CPI estimate (31 August): Cheap oil
    • ECB refi rate (03 September): Dovish comments
    • US change in nonfarm payrolls (04 September): Stable trend

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  • 24.08.2015 — ECONOMIC UPSWING AT RISK? PROBABLY NOT

    Is the economic upturn at risk? The sell-off in European equity markets is now slightly worse than the correction of September/October last year that was driven mostly by irrational deflation fears. At the time, the economic impact of the market gyrations was marginal, possibly dampening business investment slightly. Instead, consumers celebrated low oil prices by buying more cars. Do we now have to worry more about economic fundamentals than 10 months ago? Probably not, at least not yet.

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  • 10.07.2015 — ECONOMIC CALENDAR - Week of 13 July

    • Special EU summit on Greek bailout with 28 members of the European Union (12 July): Can “OXI” turn into YES?
    • Chinese Q2 GDP numbers  (15 July): Gradual slowdown
    • ECB main refinancing rate and deposit facility rate (16 July): No change – ready to contain Greek risks

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  • 01.09.2014 — EUROZONE ECONOMIC ROUGH PATCH SPREADS

    The economic slowdown which began in the Eurozone core in spring is spreading. The currency area’s PMI manu-facturing declined from 51.8 to 50.7 in August, its lowest level since July last year.

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Macro Views

  • 13.09.2018 — CENTRAL BANKS: TURKEY BITES THE BULLET, BoE WAITS FOR BREXIT, ECB ON TRACK
  • 13.09.2018 — ECB: SLIGHTLY MORE CAUTIOUS BUT POLICY OUTLOOK "ROBUST"
  • 11.09.2018 — 10 YEARS AFTER: 10 LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
  • 05.09.2018 — MACRO UPDATE: ITALY, TURKEY AND EMERGING MARKETS
  • 03.09.2018 — BREXIT: BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD
  • 23.08.2018 — WHO MAY SUCCEED DRAGHI AT THE ECB?
  • 20.08.2018 — GREECE EXITS BAILOUT - EURO CRISIS "OFFICIALLY" OVER
  • 17.08.2018 — TURKISH CONTAGION RISKS: ITALY, EUROZONE, EMERGING MARKETS?
  • 16.08.2018 — OPTIONS FOR TURKEY
  • 10.08.2018 — TURKEY’S CRISIS: DOES IT MATTER FOR THE EUROZONE?
  • 07.08.2018 — ITALIAN UPDATE: HEADING FOR AN EVEN HOTTER SEPTEMBER?
  • 02.08.2018 — BOE TO MARKETS - STEP UP RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS
  • 27.07.2018 — ECONOMICS - EUROZONE SOFT PATCH: COMING TO AN END SOON?
  • 26.07.2018 — JUNCKER-TRUMP: A STEP AWAY FROM THE BRINK
  • 26.07.2018 — ECB: SAILING SMOOTHLY INTO THE SUMMER BREAK
  • 25.07.2018 — SOLID RECOVERY AHEAD FOR UK CONSUMPTION (chart pack)
  • 25.07.2018 — TRUMP MEETS JUNCKER: THE NEXT STEP IN THE TRADE WAR SAGA
  • 25.07.2018 — GERMAN IFO: SERIOUS TRADE RISKS AMID DOMESTIC STRENGTH
  • 24.07.2018 — ECB PREVIEW: STAYING THE COURSE THROUGH THE SUMMER BREAK
  • 19.07.2018 — TRADE WAR RISK: THE LITMUS TEST AHEAD
  • 18.07.2018 — BREXIT: TORY INFIGHTING CHANGES THE BALANCE OF RISK
  • 18.07.2018 — THE BIG ITALIAN RISK: LABOUR REFORM REVERSALS
  • 11.07.2018 — GERMAN ECONOMY: HOW SERIOUS IS THE SLOWDOWN?
  • 10.07.2018 — BREXIT: MAY STRENGTHENED, TESTS AHEAD FOR A SOFTER BREXIT
  • 03.07.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: THE IMPACT OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS
  • 29.06.2018 — GREECE: A FRESH START?
  • 25.06.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: WOULD THE CSU TOPPLE MERKEL?
  • 22.06.2018 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL RISKS: A SUMMER OF DISCONTENT?
  • 20.06.2018 — EUROPEAN REFORMS: MACRON AND MERKEL STRIKE THEIR MODEST DEAL
  • 20.06.2018 — THE TRADE WAR RISK: WHAT IS AT STAKE?
  • 11.06.2018 — ECB PREVIEW: THE NEXT STEP
  • 01.06.2018 — MACRO UPDATE: RADICALS RULE ITALY, TRUMP GETS TRADE WRONG
  • 29.05.2018 — WHAT IF: COULD ITALY SPARK A NEW EURO CRISIS?
  • 29.05.2018 — ITALIAN CRISIS: DOES THE SELL-OFF MAKE SENSE?
  • 20.03.2018 — EU SUMMIT PREVIEW: EUROZONE REFORM TALKS, NO DECISIONS YET
  • 28.02.2018 — POLITICAL UPDATE: ITALIAN ELECTION, GERMAN COALITION
  • 12.02.2018 — US BUDGET ACCORD: IMPLICATIONS AND OBSERVATIONS
  • 25.01.2018 — ECB: STAYING CALM IN VOLATILE TIMES
  • 22.01.2018 — ECB PREVIEW: NO CHANGE YET AS ECB TRIES TO REIN IN THE EURO
  • 22.01.2018 — EXPLAINING US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS
  • 19.01.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: WHAT IF?
  • 15.01.2018 — EUROPEAN REFORMS: OUTLINES OF A GERMAN RESPONSE TO MACRON
  • 12.01.2018 — GERMAN POLITICS: A MEDIOCRE DEAL AT LAST BUT IT IS NOT OVER YET
  • 11.01.2018 — MINUTES REVEAL ECB ON TRACK TO END QE IN SEPTEMBER 2018
  • 10.01.2018 — US: ELEVATED SENTIMENT BODES WELL FOR 2018 REAL ACTIVITY
  • 06.01.2018 — ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AROUND FED RATE INCREASES
  • 21.12.2017 — U.S. TAX REFORM LEGISLATION OBSERVATIONS
  • 18.12.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICS: GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN, AUSTRIA, EU RE-FORMS
  • 13.12.2017 — FED RAISES ITS POLICY RATE, UPGRADES 2018 GDP GROWTH BUT IT STILL PROJECTS THREE POLICY RATE INCREASES IN 2018
  • 12.12.2017 — ECB PREVIEW: 2020 FORECAST IS KEY FOR RATE PATH
  • 22.11.2017 — FOMC MINUTES SHOW RATE HIKE WARRANTED SOON, BUT INFLATION CONCERNS LINGER
  • 21.11.2017 — UPDATED HOUSE-SENATE SIDE-BY-SIDE TAX LEGISLATION COMPARISON
  • 20.11.2017 — GERMAN POLITICS: LIMBO IN BERLIN
  • 16.11.2017 — US: HOUSE PASSES ITS TAX BILL, SENATE UP NEXT
  • 10.11.2017 — US House, Senate Tax Legislation Bills Advance
  • 08.11.2017 — BREXIT UPDATE: WILL THERE BE A BREAKTHROUGH SOON?
  • 30.10.2017 — THE CATALAN RISK
  • 30.10.2017 — OH LORD, PLEASE DON'T LET ME 'BOE' MISUNDERSTOOD
  • 26.10.2017 — ECB: TAKING THE BIG STEPS SLOWLY
  • 23.10.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: JAPAN, SPAIN, ITALY, GERMANY, BREXIT
  • 23.10.2017 — ECB PREVIEW: CHANCE FOR A DOVISH SURPRISE?
  • 16.10.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICS: GERMANY RETURNS TO MORE NORMAL, AUSTRIA VOTES KURZ
  • 12.10.2017 — MAPPING OUT THE NEXT STEPS IN US FISCAL-TAX REFORM PROCESS
  • 09.10.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICS: CATALONIA, GERMANY, AUSTRIA
  • 02.10.2017 — CATALAN QUESTIONS
  • 29.09.2017 — UK UPDATE: BREXIT, POLITICS, MACRO, BOE
  • 27.09.2017 — GERMAN UPDATE: REPEAT ELECTIONS INSTEAD OF JAMAICA? VERY UNLIKELY
  • 27.09.2017 — MACRON'S EUROPE SPEECH: A WISHLIST WITH SOME SENSIBLE PROPOSALS
  • 27.09.2017 — GERMAN UPDATE: REPEAT ELECTIONS INSTEAD OF JAMAICA? VERY UNLIKELY
  • 25.09.2017 — GERMAN ELECTION: UPHEAVAL AND STABILITY
  • 25.09.2017 — GERMAN ELECTION SUMMARY
  • 22.09.2017 — UK: MAY'S FLORENCE SPEECH - 4 TAKEAWAYS
  • 22.09.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE: BEYOND THE NOISE
  • 18.09.2017 — GERMAN POLITICAL UPDATE: SMALLER PARTIES GAIN SOME GROUND
  • 13.09.2017 — EUROPEAN REFORMS CONFERENCE - SOME KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • 07.09.2017 — ECB: TIPTOEING TOWARDS THE EXIT DESPITE CONCERNS ABOUT EURO STRENGTH
  • 05.09.2017 — ECB PREVIEW: AUTUMN IS COMING
  • 04.09.2017 — UK: ONE CHART SHOWS WHY THE REAL WAGE SQUEEZE WON'T LAST
  • 04.09.2017 — AFTER THE TV DUEL: GERMAN POLITICAL UPDATE
  • 30.08.2017 — NOTES ON THE NORTH KOREA RISK
  • 30.08.2017 — BREXIT UPDATE: A PREDICTABLE BUMP IN THE ROAD
  • 29.08.2017 — FRENCH UPDATE: WILL MACRON DELIVER?
  • 22.08.2017 — UK UPDATE: POLITICS, BREXIT, MACRO
  • 17.08.2017 — ECB MINUTES SHOW CONCERN ABOUT EURO OVERSHOOT, NOT CURRENT LEVEL OF EURO
  • 10.08.2017 — UK HOUSING MARKET - THE RISK TO WATCH
  • 09.08.2017 — BRING ON THE ROBOTS: AUTOMATION YIEDS ECONOMIC BENEFITS
  • 07.08.2017 — GERMAN POLITICAL UPDATE: MERKEL'S CHOICE
  • 04.08.2017 — IS THE MARKET MISREADING THE BOE?
  • 03.08.2017 — BOE: RATE HIKE - A QUESTION OF WHEN, NOT IF
  • 01.08.2017 — BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW - CAUTIOSLY HAWKISH
  • 27.07.2017 — THE GERMAN PROBLEM? IT'S COMPLACENCY, NOT THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
  • 24.07.2017 — THE STATE OF BREXIT: SPELLING OUT THE RISKS
  • 20.07.2017 — ECB: PLAYING IT SAFE
  • 05.07.2017 — UK UPDATE: MACRO, BOE AND BREXIT
  • 30.06.2017 — A HAWKISH ECB? NOT REALLY
  • 19.06.2017 — UK POLITICAL UPDATE: A KEY WEEK FOR BREXIT
  • 19.06.2017 — MACRON'S VICTORY PAVES THE WAY FOR SERIOUS REFORMS
  • 15.06.2017 — UK: ALL INDICATORS POINT TOWARD A RATE HIKE SOON
  • 13.06.2017 — NOTES ON THE FUTURE OF BRITAIN
  • 12.06.2017 — UK POLITICAL UPDATE: HARD BREXIT HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY
  • 12.06.2017 — EUROZONE POLITICAL UPDATE: FRENCH RENAISSANCE, ITALY'S GRILLO DEFLATED
  • 09.06.2017 — MAYDAY MAYDAY - UK ELECTION
  • 09.06.2017 — UK: EXIT POLLS POINT TO HUNG PARLIAMENT, WHAT NEXT?
  • 08.06.2017 — ECB: TIPTOEING TOWARDS THE EXIT
  • 07.06.2017 — UK ELECTION: FINAL POLLS, ELECTION TIMETABLE, WHAT HAPPENS IF
  • 05.06.2017 — UK UPDATE: MACRO, ELECTION, BREXIT, IMPACT OF TERROR ATTACKS
  • 05.06.2017 — THE BIG PICTURE: GROWTH, SENTIMENT AND MARKETS
  • 02.06.2017 — ECB PREVIEW: TIPTOEING TOWARDS THE EXIT
  • 30.05.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: ITALIAN ELECTION RISK; ADVANTAGE MACRON AND MERKEL
  • 15.05.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: MERKEL WINS, MACRON TAKES OFFICE, AUSTRIA'S KURZ MAKES MOVE
  • 11.05.2017 — BOE GIVES CLEAR BUT CONTINGENT GUIDANCE FOR FORTHCOMING RATE HIKES
  • 09.05.2017 — BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW - EDGING TOWARD A RATE HIKE
  • 07.05.2017 — VIVE LA FRANCE, VIVE L'EUROPE: PRESIDENT MACRON
  • 05.05.2017 — THE MACRON EFFECT: CAN FRANCE OVERTAKE GERMANY AGAIN?
  • 03.05.2017 — UK UPDATE: CONSEQUENCES OF THE UK-EU BREXIT CLASH
  • 28.04.2017 — ECB MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING
  • 27.04.2017 — ECB: TOWARDS THE EXIT AT A SNAIL'S PACE
  • 27.04.2017 — UK GROWTH: 10 REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR 2017
  • 27.04.2017 — TRUMP, LE PEN, AFD: COPING WITH THE POLITICS OF ANGER
  • 25.04.2017 — EUROZONE: A FIRMER ECONOMIC RECOVERY
  • 24.04.2017 — FRENCH WRAP-UP: THE GOOD NEWS AND THE LESS GOOD NEWS
  • 24.04.2017 — FRANCE: HOPE SEEMS TO BEAT ANGER
  • 18.04.2017 — UK: 8TH JUNE 'BREXIT' ELECTION RAISES RISK OF 'HARDER' EU EXIT
  • 18.04.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: FRENCH AND GERMAN POLLS
  • 03.04.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: THE BREXIT GAP, FRENCH AND GERMAN POLITICS
  • 31.03.2017 — UK: HOUSEHOLD APPETITES FOR MAJOR PURCHASES HIGH DESPITE EXPECTED RISE IN INFLATION
  • 29.03.2017 — THE BREXIT BRIEF
  • 27.03.2017 — POLITICAL UPDATE: US, GERMANY, FRANCE
  • 24.03.2017 — EUROPE AT 60: THE TRENDS THAT SHAPE THE FUTURE

    Sixty years after the Treaty of Rome established the European Economic Community (EEC), the process of European integration as we know it seems to have reached its limits. So far the institutionalised cooperation between sovereign nation states in Europe has always grown in scope and size. With Brexit and the Le Pen challenge in France, this process is now at risk.

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  • 17.03.2017 — FRANCE AND ITALY: RISK UPDATE
  • 16.03.2017 — UK: MPC MARCH MINUTES SHOW THE BOE SHIFTING FROM NEUTRAL TO HAWKISH
  • 16.03.2017 — DUTCH RELIEF: THE IMPACT OF THE VOTE
  • 14.03.2017 — UK: HEADING FOR A HARD BREXIT AND SCOTTISH EXIT?
  • 13.03.2017 — UK WEEK AHEAD: ARTICLE 50, LABOUR MARKET, BOE MARCH MEETING
  • 09.03.2017 — ECB: FIRMER RECOVERY BUT NO NEED TO CHANGE POLICY
  • 08.03.2017 — UK BUDGET 2017: PUBLIC FINANCES HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT LACK EMPHASIS ON INVESTMENT
  • 06.03.2017 — UK BUDGET 2017 PREVIEW - POLICY CHANGES UNLIKELY TO ALTER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
  • 03.03.2017 — THE FED: ON THE VERGE OF AN OBVIOUS AND MINOR POLICY MOVE

    Federal Reserve Chair Yellen has signaled in a speech she gave today the high probability that the Fed will raise its Fed funds rate target at its upcoming March 14-15 FOMC meeting.  In her detailed assessment of the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy in recent years amid progress toward its dual employment and inflation mandate, perhaps the most insightful and meaningful part of the speech is its title:  “From Adding Accommodation to Scaling It Back”. 

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  • 01.03.2017 — UK PMI MANUFACTURING SIGNALS SOLID GROWTH IN FEBRUARY DESPITE SMALL SLIP
  • 28.02.2017 — EUROZONE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: RESILIENT RECOVERY

    Forget all the political risks for a moment. Economic fundamentals look quite encouraging for the Eurozone.

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  • 28.02.2017 — UK UPDATE: SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE, ARTICLE 50, SOLID NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
  • 28.02.2017 — EUROZONE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: RESILIENT RECOVERY
  • 20.02.2017 — ONE MONTH OF TRUMP: A VIEW FROM ABROAD
  • 20.02.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: FRENCH, ITALIAN AND GERMAN POLITICS
  • 16.02.2017 — ECB MINUTES: STEADY HAND, BUT RISKS MORE BALANCED
  • 13.02.2017 — UK MACRO: ARTICLE 50, DATA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
  • 06.02.2017 — US: HIGH CONFIDENCE LIFTS ECONOMY AND OUTLOOK

    Post-election confidence surveys have remained strong in early 2017, supporting expectations of accelerating economic growth. The better sentiment seems to be feeding into the economy – strong December durable goods report and robust job gains in January. There are a lot of moving parts in the fiscal reform proposals, but expect the tax reform package to be introduced in Spring, debated and modified and enacted by late summer.

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  • 06.02.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE: MERKEL, MACRON, RENZI
  • 01.02.2017 — FRENCH ELECTION UPDATE

    In politics, the road is rarely smooth. The investigation of presidential candidate François Fillon (Republican) following allegations of false employment of his family could alter the calculus of the French presidential elections on 23 April and 7 May.

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  • 01.02.2017 — UK: BOE INFLATION REPORT PREVIEW - EARLY SIGNS OF HAWKISHNESS?
  • 01.02.2017 — FRENCH ELECTION UPDATE
  • 31.01.2017 — EUROZONE MACRO UPDATE: ENCOURAGING ACROSS THE BENCH
  • 25.01.2017 — EARLY ELECTIONS IN ITALY?
  • 25.01.2017 — GERMAN IFO SETBACK: A LITTLE TRUMP SCARE?
  • 24.01.2017 — GERMAN POLITICS: A CENTRE-LEFT ALTERNATIVE TO MERKEL?
  • 24.01.2017 — EUROZONE PMIS SIGNAL SOLID START TO 2017
  • 24.01.2017 — SUPREME COURT BACKS PARLIAMENTARY VOTE - HARD BREXIT RISK FALLS
  • 23.01.2017 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: TRUMP, BREXIT, FRENCH AND ITALIAN POLITICS
  • 19.01.2017 — ECB: STEADY AS SHE GOES
  • 19.01.2017 — PRESIDENT TRUMP - A VIEW FROM ABROAD
  • 17.01.2017 — BREXIT BASICS

    Brexit will do some significant damage to the British economy. Greater London is the services capital of Europe. Today, companies take advantage of the great conveniences of Britain's light-touch regulation, its competent administration, its deep pool of qualified labour and the English language to offer their services across Europe from a British base.

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  • 17.01.2017 — BREXIT BASICS

    Brexit will do some significant damage to the British economy. Greater London is the services capital of Europe. Today, companies take advantage of the great conveniences of Britain's light-touch regulation, its competent administration, its deep pool of qualified labour and the English language to offer their services across Europe from a British base.

    Als PDF downloaden
  • 17.01.2017 — ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF MAY'S SPEECH: CRUCIAL DETAILS STILL UNKNOWN
  • 17.01.2017 — BREXIT BASICS
  • 16.01.2017 — UK MACRO: THE WEEK AHEAD
  • 12.01.2017 — ECB DECEMBER MINUTES INDICATE DIVISION AND UNCERTAINTY FOR ROAD AHEAD
  • 10.01.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE

    Germany remains stable, France presents an opportunity, Italy poses a risk. The evidence so far this year strengthens some key conclusions of our Global outlook 2017: more growth, more risks.

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  • 10.01.2017 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE
  • 14.12.2016 — THE FED: SO WHAT’S NEXT?

    As we described in our pre-FOMC note, the Fed raised its Federal funds rate target, but the FOMC members made virtually no changes to their economic or inflation forecasts.  The median FOMC member’s estimate of the appropriate Fed funds rate (the so-called “dots”) at year-end 2017 was raised to 1.4% from 1.1%, suggesting three rate increases in 2017, and raised to 2.1% from 1.9% the 2018 year-end Fed funds rate. 

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  • 12.12.2016 — FED TO HIKE BUT NOT CHANGE FORECASTS AT DECEMBER MEETING

    The Fed will raise its target Fed funds rate at this week’s FOMC meeting, but the Fed is not expected to materially alter either its economic forecasts or its forecasts of the trajectory of the appropriate Fed funds rate (the “dots”) in its quarterly forecasting updates, even though the Fed clearly senses an economic regime shift under President-elect Trump. 

     

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  • 12.12.2016 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: ITALIAN POLITICS, GERMAN ECONOMY

    Italy is trying to defuse its political crisis fast. After Renzi’s failed referendum eight days ago, the likely solution for the time being seems to be to carry on largely as before, just with Renzi exerting control from a back rather than the front seat.

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  • 07.12.2016 — MACRO UPDATE: ECB PREVIEW, ITALY

    Expect the European Central Bank to send a two-pronged message this Thursday. First, The ECB wants to maintain a highly accommodative stance.

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  • 29.11.2016 — RENZI'S REFERENDUM: NOTES ON THE THE ITALIAN RISK

    Ever since the Brexit vote, we have viewed a potential political crisis in Italy as the top event risk in Europe for 2017. ‎

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  • 28.11.2016 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: FILLON, MERKEL, BREXIT

    After winning the Republican primaries convincingly with two thirds of the vote, Francois Fillon is in the pole position to be the next French president.

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  • 09.11.2016 — IMPLICATIONS OF THE TRUMP VICTORY

    The election of Donald Trump as President and Republicans winning plurality in both the House of Representatives and Senate represent the electorate’s rejection of the Establishment’s progressive agenda.  It will mean significant changes in the thrust of domestic and international policies.  However, the many checks and balances in Washington, including the important role played by Congress and the various government agencies, will result in far less radical changes than many fear.

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  • 06.11.2016 — OBSERVATIONS ON MARKET REACTIONS TO US ELECTION OUTCOMES

    A Clinton victory is the most likely outcome, even though polls suggest that the US presidential race has tightened materially over the last week. This note examines possible immediate and medium-term market reactions to a Clinton or an unlikely Trump victory. As such it reflects these assessments, which are speculative. Obviously, uncertainty abounds.

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  • 24.10.2016 — US INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING--A ROADMAP FOR THINKING BROADLY

    Now that the need for renewed increases in US infrastructure spending is widely acknowledged and is a focus of Washington policymakers, private companies and the investment community, there are many issues involved that will affect what legislation is ultimately enacted, how it affects the economy, jobs, interest rates and the Fed’s perspective on monetary policy, and of course the investment opportunities it will present. 

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  • 19.10.2016 — ECB PREVIEW: MARKETS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL DECEMBER

    Will Draghi announce an extension to the ECB’s asset purchase programme tomorrow? Probably not.

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  • 12.10.2016 — EUROZONE OUTLOOK: GROWTH, INFLATION AND ECB POLICY

    More of the same. Economic fundamentals and recent data suggest that the Eurozone economy will continue to expand at a rate close to 1.5% for the foreseeable future, as it has done since mid-2014 with some quarterly fluctuations.

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  • 19.09.2016 — GERMAN POLITICS: THE ROUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR MERKEL

    Another blow for the German chancellor. As in the two other rounds of state elections earlier this year, Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU lost heavily in the city state of Berlin.

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  • 13.09.2016 — POLITICAL UPDATE: US ELECTIONS

    With eight weeks to go until the US elections on 8 November, the most market-friendly outcome remains the most likely result: Hillary Clinton becomes US president while the Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives.

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  • 12.09.2016 — YIELDS ARE UP: GOOD NEWS OR BAD NEWS?

    Having first dropped on exaggerated expectations that the ECB may ease policy further, bond yields have risen visibly since the ECB disappointed such hopes yesterday.

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  • 07.09.2016 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE: ITALY, FRANCE, AUSTRIA

    ITALY: CRUCIAL REFERENDUM IN LATE NOVEMBER OR EARLY DECEMBER. FRANCE: WARMING UP FOR THE VOTES. AUSTRIA: ANOTHER CLOSE SHAVE?

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  • 05.09.2016 — ECB PREVIEW: NO COMPELLING NEED TO ACT NOW

    The pace of recovery in the Eurozone remains “unsatisfactory” according to ECB board member Yves Mersch. Does that mean that the ECB will have to act again this Thursday? Not necessarily.

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  • 05.09.2016 — EUROPEAN POLITICAL UPDATE: GERMAN REBUKE FOR MERKEL; SPANISH STALEMATE

    GERMANY: WILL THE REGIONAL REBUKE FOR MERKEL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Another embarrassing regional election result for chancellor Angela Merkel

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  • 30.08.2016 — COPING WITH THE POLITICS OF ANGER

    For better or worse, we are living in exciting times. Globalisation and rapid technological change are creating huge opportunities.

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  • 22.08.2016 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: EU POLITICS, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, JACKSON HOLE

    Merkel, Hollande and Renzi meet today to discuss post-Brexit EU reforms. The informal get-together starts a series of intra-EU discussions ahead of the 16 September summit where EU27 leaders want to outline some reform ideas to be elaborated in more detail in the six months thereafter.

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  • 08.07.2016 — BREXIT FALLOUT: UK GFK CONFIDENCE FALLS, GERMAN SUPPORT FOR EU RISES

    Following the UK vote to leave the EU, consumer confidence in the UK has suffered its sharpest fall in 21 years.

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  • 05.07.2016 — UPDATE ON BREXIT CONTAGION RISKS

    Will the British vote to leave the EU embolden anti-European populists elsewhere in Europe – or will the political and economic uncertainty into which the vote has plunged the UK serve as a salutary lesson for voters elsewhere? For the EU-27, this could turn into the key issue to watch in the coming months.

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  • 04.07.2016 — UK AND EU: UPDATE ON BREXIT FALLOUT

    KEY ISSUES FOR THE UK: Frontrunners for Conservative party leader vary on timing of Brexit talks with EU. UK Government debt still not a serious risk to the UK economy following change to fiscal plans. KEY ISSUES FOR THE EU-27: The future of the EU. French politics. Bellwether Austria

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  • 01.07.2016 — NOTES ON THE SCOTTISH ISSUE

    Eight days ago, 62% of Scots voted to stay in the EU. Scotland's regional government now wants to secure its nation's place in the EU.‎

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  • 22.06.2016 — After the Brexit vote: assessing the domino risks

    Domino risks: In this report, we look at the tail risk that key Eurozone members may decide to leave the euro or that Sweden or Denmark may vote themselves out of the EU.

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  • 20.06.2016 — THE WEEK THAT COUNTS: UPDATE ON EUROPEAN RISKS

    The week that counts has started. After a drubbing for Italy’s pro-European prime minister Renzi in local elections on 19 June, the German court verdict on the ECB's OMT programme on 21 June, the Brexit referendum on 23 June and the Spanish repeat elections on 26 June could make waves.

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  • 20.06.2016 — NOTES ON EUROPE

    After two generations, the process of European integration as we know it seems to have reached its limits. European integration has been a response to the wars that ravaged the continent until 1945 and to the protectionism that wrecked many economies in the inter-war years.

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  • 16.06.2016 — Brexit update: UK polls now show small lead for “leave”

    Brexit opinion polls now show “leave” marginally ahead: With 10 days to go until the UK’s “in” or “out” referendum on European Union (EU) membership, polls are showing a significant gain in support for “leave”, as
    immigration has taken centre stage in the UK public debate.

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  • 16.06.2016 — The Brexit Brief: our guide to the “what if”?

    A serious shock. If UK voters decide on 23 June to leave the European Union, the UK and, to a lesser extent, Europe as a whole could plunge into a significant crisis. Markets would price in the risks, possibly overdoing it in a first knee-jerk reaction.

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  • 06.06.2016 — EUROPE: THE SIX-DAY CLUSTER OF RISKS

    The German court verdict on the ECB's OMT programme on 21 June, the Brexit referendum on 23 June and the Spanish repeat elections on 26 June: Europe is heading for a six-day cluster of risks. We expect Europe to dodge the bullets again, as it has done so far.

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  • 23.05.2016 — The Euro Plus Monitor Spring 2016 Update

    Once a year, Berenberg and the Lisbon Council examine the fundamental economic health and recent adjustment progress of 21 European economies. We published the last full set of results in The 2015 Euro Plus Monitor on 14 December 2015. In The Spring 2016 Update, we look only at the Adjustment Progress Indicator. In addition, we take advantage of recent data releases to update the rankings based on full data sets for 2015, including the second half of the year.

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  • 11.05.2016 — Brexit: Das Risiko des Jahres

    Ein Schicksalstag für Europa? Am 23. Juni stimmen die britischen Wähler über den Verbleib ihres Landes in der Europäischen Union ab. Meinungsumfragen sagen einen knappen Ausgang voraus, das Risiko eines britischen Austritts („Brexit“) liegt unseres Erachtens bei 35 %.

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  • 22.01.2016 — SEVEN REASONS WHY WE ARE NOT HEADING FOR RECESSION

    Economic upswings don’t die of old age. They end because a cleansing recession is needed after the exuberance of a boom or because an external shock deals a devastating blow to the system. Across the Western world, we find no convincing evidence of serious excesses that would have to be corrected by a downturn soon. More precisely, we find seven reasons why the Western world will probably not fall into a new recession soon.

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  • 18.01.2016 — CHINA AND OIL: NO NEED TO PANIC

    Seven years after the post-Lehman crisis, memories of the disaster are still fairly fresh. Whenever things get wobbly, many scarred market participants are still inclined to sell first and ask questions later. We've seen this in the euro crisis hysteria of 2011-2012 as well as in some other corrections thereafter. As economists, we cannot call the peaks and bottoms of such market swings. But we can assess whether they make sense.

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  • 07.01.2016 — CHINA'S CURRENCY DEVALUATION IS ACTUALLY A POSITIVE

    Worries about China’s currency devaluation are overstated. In recent years, China’s yuan has appreciated significantly on a trade-weighted basis and its unit labor costs of production have soared, cutting into China’s competitive edge and contributing to declining exports. A modest depreciation of its currency is an appropriate adjustment that is positive for China’s economy and global performance.

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  • 05.01.2016 — GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2016: THE CRITICAL ISSUES

    What are the driving factors for the global economy in 2016? How will China’s deceleration and lower commodity prices affect global growth and trade? Will Eurozone economies continue to improve? Can the UK sustain healthy growth?  What are the political risks and how much do we have to worry about a potential British exit from the European Union (Brexit)? How will the US perform relative to the Federal Reserve’s expectations, and how will the US and global economies be influenced by rising US rates? In this report, we discuss the key issues for 2016 in a question and answer format.

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  • 09.12.2015 — FED HIKE WILL RAISE QUESTIONS FOR DOVISH BOE

    Citing robust GDP growth, full employment and rising inflation in 2016, the Fed will probably hike rates next week for the first time since cutting them to almost zero six years ago. For the BoE, the first hike remains a distant prospect. This is odd since UK GDP, labour market and inflation data are starkly similar to the US and indeed both Mark Carney and Janet Yellen have long stated that the timing and pace of rate hikes will be data dependent. We argue that the BoE should be hiking soon too

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  • 27.11.2015 — UK INFLATION OUTLOOK WARRANTS EARLY BOE HIKE

    Waiting too long to hike could make “gradual tightening” challenging if inflation overshoots. The risks to the economy and inflation of beginning the rate hike cycle sooner rather than later are low. Given the need for a gradual pace of tightening, an early start will be necessary to negate the risk that underlying price pressures accumulate more rapidly than desired. This scenario might require more aggressive hikes to control and would risk destabilising the economy.

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  • 23.11.2015 — EUROPE: OUR BASE CASE

    After a near-term dent, we expect Eurozone growth to gradually rebound to an annualised pace around 1.7% over the course of next year as the impact of the emerging market crisis fades. A fiscal stimulus across much of the Eurozone of roughly 0.3% of GDP, including extra spending on refugees of at least 0.6% of German GDP in Germany, will support domestic demand.

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  • 02.11.2015 — EUROZONE ECONOMY: HOLDING UP WELL SO FAR

    We expect 1.6% growth for 2016, rising to 1.8% in 2017, after 1.5% this year. Near-term, we still project a temporary slowdown in growth for late 2015 led by export-oriented industry. But as the survey data have, on balance, turned up rather than down over the last two months, we are delighted to acknowledge that there may be at least as much upside than downside risk to our calls for late 2015 and the start of 2016

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  • 23.06.2015 — GREECE: TOWARDS A SKEWED DEAL?

    Good news: Greece has moved. While Athens still has to offer more to its creditors by the new deadline of Wednesday evening, both sides apparently see the proposals Greece presented on Monday morning as a basis for a potential deal.


    Bad news: Greece is putting forward the wrong kind of deal. Within the overall sustainability parameters set by creditors, Athens proposes almost exclusively tax hikes rather than pro-growth structural reforms and well targeted expenditure cuts.

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  • 17.06.2015 — GREECE: CLOSER TO THE ABYSS

    The rhetoric from Athens sounds more like the start of a blame game than a prelude to compromise.
    The Greek problem can still be solved easily if the government changes tack: But with every semi-deadline that Greece misses and with every rude word that the Greek radicals hurl at their creditors, the damage already done to Greece gets worse.
    Contagion risks: Expect some volatility, yes, but the EZ has spent the past three years strengthening its defences against contagion.
    Economic impact: For Greece, it gets worse by the day. For the EZ, we expect the sheer noise to cause a small dent to business confidence now but no major impact.
    We raise the Grexit risk from 30% to 40%.

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  • 02.06.2015 — ECB: PROGRESS, BUT NO REASON TO LET UP

    No decisions are likely to be made at the ECB meeting on Wednesday but ECB President Mario Draghi will use the press conference after the meeting to counter recent upward pressure on yields and the euro
    The economic situation and outlook of the Eurozone is currently better than at any time since early 2011.
    But the time to let up on the stimulus is still a long way off, as the ECB’s mandated target of HICP inflation is still far away.

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  • 26.05.2015 — GREECE UPDATE: TSIPRAS MOVING, BUT TOO SLOWLY

    ● Having made three impossible promises in his election campaign, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras still refuses to get real.
    ● Cracks in Athens: At a Syriza central committee meeting late on Sunday, 95 members voted for a Tsipras-backed “compromise”. 75 voted to ignore lenders altogether and risk Grexit if they continue to set conditions.
    ● Chances are that Tsipras will eventually have to choose between serving his country or the strong left-wing of his party.
    ● Our best guess: Mr Tsipras is very gradually edging towards a less unrealistic stance. But far too slowly.

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  • 06.05.2015 — EUROZONE: TAILWINDS STILL BLOWING, A LITTLE LESS STRONGLY

    The Eurozone had a great start into 2015, by strong economic tailwinds.
    These tailwinds are blowing a little less strongly now, due to a mix of the ECB’s own success and unexpected weakness elsewhere, but thanks to the great start to the year, they are no longer needed as much.

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  • 15.04.2015 — RISK CONTROL IS WORKING

    Life is full of tail risks: what really matters is whether we can control such risks, which seems the case in 2015. In Europe, for example, a huge political accident in Athens has caused no ripple effects beyond Greece, suggesting that the Eurozone now has the means to contain such crises.
    For further information see our quarterly Economic Outlook.

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  • 26.03.2015 — BRITAIN'S LABOUR MARKET MIRACLE: WHY IT MATTERS

    Flexible labour market creates plenty of jobs with low wage inflation: In days gone by, the UK’s recent employment surge would have triggered rip-roaring inflation and a need for the central bank to kill the recovery. Not this time.

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  • 26.03.2015 — PORTUGAL: EASIER RIDE FOR NEXT GOVERNMENT

    Portugal’s upswing shows the success of the tough adjustment programmes imposed by the EU and IMF in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, just as Spain and Ireland did. Growth is back, unemployment has fallen, deficits are down and market access has been fully restored.

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  • 19.03.2015 — STEADY EDDIE UK BUDGET

    Prudence instead of giveaways: Chancellor George Osborne took quite a risk this close to a very tight election by trying to portray prudence instead of engaging in the usual pre-election bribery

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  • 17.03.2015 — WATCH OUT FOR STERLING-DRIVEN SURPRISES

    If we learnt one thing from sterling’s 2008 fall, it is that the exchange rate can have big long-lasting effects on inflation, but only second-order impacts on exports. Those facts surprised markets a few years ago. They may do so again if sterling’s recent rise persists.

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  • 04.03.2015 — ECB PREVIEW: YOU MAKE YOUR OWN LUCK

    The ECB may not believe its own luck: Ever since 22 January, when the ECB announced that it would start buying sovereign bonds from March onwards, many Eurozone economic indicators have surprised on the upside.

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  • 27.02.2015 — BRITISH EUROSCEPTICISM RECEDES

    We can sleep easier. With two more years of debating to go, support for EU membership could improve further. We expect the UK to remain in the EU.

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  • 23.02.2015 — SYRIZA GETS REAL - BUT WILL THE DEAL LAST?

    Having promised his voters three impossible things in his election campaign, new Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras now seems to have made the right choice, namely to back down almost completely rather than to push his country into the abyss of Grexit.

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  • 19.02.2015 — GREECE: WHAT IF?

    Greece facing short-term crunch, then potentially Argentina-style inflation. Eurozone can contain ST wobbles. Greek precedent bad in LT, but strengthens rules.

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  • 13.02.2015 — UK WAGE INDICATORS POINT UP

    Wage prospects turn up: After two years of solid UK recovery the labour market has tightened on almost any measure.

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  • 05.02.2015 — GREEK CONTAGION RISKS? SPAIN AND ITALY LOOK SAFE

    2015 is not 2012: The Eurozone’s defences against financial contagion are much stronger. The European Central Bank’s 2012 Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme looks set to survive German legal challenges. And, as part of its monetary policy stance, the ECB will soon buy large amounts of sovereign bonds anyway.

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  • 02.02.2015 — UK STILL GOING STRONG

    Wheels coming off?: The obituaries for the UK recovery were quick off the printing press this week when growth figures slowed a little in the fourth quarter. That was variously due to the housing market (when is it not about housing in the UK?), a lack of rebalancing, deleveraging or the Eurozone. A more sober assessment says there is nothing to worry about in these figures.

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  • 26.01.2015 — GREEK ELECTION: THE REALITY SHOCK AHEAD

    In a victory of anger over fear, of make-believe over reason, Greece has voted decisively for a populist insurgent who has made three impossible promises to his country in one campaign. Greece and its new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, are in for a reality shock soon. 

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  • 05.09.2014 — UK: WHERE DO WE STAND?

    Cruising: We have shaved our UK forecasts a little in response to the economic fall-out from events in Ukraine. But we remain optimistic.Politics is the big risk.

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  • 03.09.2014 — SHOULD AULD ACQUAINTANCE BE FORGOT?

    The eerie quiet ahead of Scotland’s 18 September referendum on whether to leave the UK was broken this week. A 1 September YouGov poll showed a sharp fall in the anti-independence camp’s lead, taking it down to six points from a huge 22 point advantage in early August. It is a timely reminder that, as we have cautioned before (see, for instance, UK risks: politics is top of our list dated 21 July), the Scottish referendum result is particularly difficult to call and the possibility of a tight vote should not be dismissed

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  • 02.09.2014 — ECB PREVIEW: MOVING TOWARDS MORE ACTION

    The Eurozone has entered an economic rough patch: Many investors and policy makers expect the ECB to respond with a major new stimulus. It will likely deliver, but perhaps not quite as aggressively as some observers hope.

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  • 15.08.2014 — FORECASTS AT A GLANCE: UNEVEN GLOBAL RECOVERY

    Our latest forecasts.

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  • 15.08.2014 — SLIGHTLY LATER UK INTEREST RATE HIKE LIKELY

    This week’s Inflation Report gave no clear sign of an imminent rate hike. In addition, uncertainty about the economic outlook has risen in recent weeks. As a result we now expect the first BoE rate hike to come in Q1 2015, later than our previous forecast of Q4 2014.

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  • 07.08.2014 — UK FORWARD GUIDANCE ONE YEAR OLD

    Was it a good year? Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney introduced “forward guidance” on 7 August last year. At best it has achieved little. At worst it has damaged the BoE’s credibility. While some criticisms of guidance come with hindsight, not all of them do.

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  • 07.08.2014 — FORECAST UPDATE: GERMANY DRAGS DOWN EUROZONE

    Recent hard economic data for key countries of the Eurozone have fallen short of our expectations. We adjust our forecasts accordingly.

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  • 06.08.2014 — SHOULD THE UK FEAR STRONGER STERLING?

    No. Sterling’s 10% appreciation over the past year has taken its toll on some international companies’ earnings. But it is a sideshow for the wider economy.

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  • 04.08.2014 — ECB PREVIEW: WATCH PUTIN, NOT MONTHLY INFLATION

    The drop in inflation to 0.4% in July has led to more warnings of deflation from some observers and calls for more radical action from the ECB. But inflation is only falling because of lower food and energy price inflation.

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  • 01.08.2014 — IS UK GROWTH SLOWING?

    Data releases have begun surprising on the downside. This week, consumer confidence and the manufacturing PMI fell. Not by very much for the former, but the reports add to a number of slightly disappointing releases in recent weeks.

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  • 01.08.2014 — MARKETS AND FUNDAMENTALS

    A macroeconomist's take on the latest market volatility.

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  • 01.08.2014 — BOE PREVIEW: WILL PRODUCTIVITY PICK UP?

    Test of our call for a November rate hike. We expect no change from the BoE at its rate setting meeting next week. But two key events in August pose a test for our call that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike in November. We look for the 20 August minutes of next week’s meeting to show one rate setter voting for a hike.

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  • 28.07.2014 — FORECASTS AT A GLANCE

    Uneven global recovery.

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  • 21.07.2014 — UK RISKS: POLITICS IS TOP OF OUR LIST

    Politics trumps most other risks: The Scottish referendum could split the UK, the general election could be followed by damaging economic policies, while the UK could vote itself out of a huge external market in 2017. We do not expect politicians to put a spanner in the works of recovery but these low-probability, huge-impact, events are worth watching very carefully.

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  • 18.07.2014 — FORECASTS AT A GLANCE

    China GDP forecasts up, Russia down sharply on Ukraine crisis.

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  • 15.07.2014 — GLOBAL OUTLOOK: UNEVEN RECOVERY

    On track: The global economy continues to recover from the post-Lehman and euro crises. Most developed economies are enjoying a broad-based and gradually firming upturn, with the UK in the lead and parts of the Eurozone trailing behind.

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  • 11.07.2014 — FORECAST UPDATE: SOFTER CORE DRAGS DOWN EUROZONE

    Surveys suggest a bigger setback for reform laggard France than for other countries. We cut our growth forecasts for France from 0.8% to 0.5% for 2014 and from 1.5% to 1.2% for 2015. Together with a small Putin effect on Germany (2014 growth 2.0% instead of 2.1%), the French revision takes our Eurozone calls from 1.1% to 1.0% for 2014 and from 1.7% to 1.6% for 2015. In late 2013, our call for 2014 had been 1.2%.

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  • 11.07.2014 — FORECASTS AT A GLANCE

    Downgrades to French, Portuguese, Eurozone and UK growth forecasts.

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  • 04.04.2014 — THE UK CYCLE GETS GOING

    The start of a rebound: The evidence of a broadening recovery is mounting. As is typical in UK cycles, consumers did the early heavy lifting. That is now translating into surging optimism in the outlook, with firms planning to borrow to fund expansion plans and for M&A, as the Bank of England (BoE) Q1 2014 credit conditions survey out today (3 April) shows (Chart 1).

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  • 04.04.2014 — THE UK CYCLE GETS GOING

    The start of a rebound: The evidence of a broadening recovery is mounting. As is typical in UK cycles, consumers did the early heavy lifting. That is now translating into surging optimism in the outlook, with firms planning to borrow to fund expansion plans and for M&A, as the Bank of England (BoE) Q1 2014 credit conditions survey out today (3 April) shows (Chart 1).

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  • 02.04.2014 — ECB: ACTION POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE SHOULD PREVAIL

    Another sharp fall in inflation in March has put the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation forecasts at risk and increased the chance of further monetary stimulus. However, as the recovery has strengthened and broadened this winter, we expect the ECB to maintain its stance.

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  • 01.04.2014 — UK MACRO UPDATE: SPLITS IN THE UNIONIST CAMPAIGN

    The “no” vote lead in the Scottish referendum polls is narrowing and recent splits in the unionist campaign are unlikely to help. The latest disagreement was between the Westminster government and Alistair Darling, the former Chancellor who runs the Unionists’ campaign.

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  • 24.03.2014 — JOBS, TRADE AND FREE TRAVEL: HOW TO STABILISE UKRAINE

    Having finally mastered the euro crisis, Europe faces a big new challenge: how to stabilise Ukraine. Much is at stake. A thriving Ukraine would advance peace, prosperity and the rule of law across a major swathe of Europe, a weak and crisis-ridden Ukraine would invite Putin to stoke violent unrest and possibly start a war, with disastrous consequences not just for Russia and Ukraine but also for Europe as a whole.

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  • 20.03.2014 — UK BUDGET: LITTLE CHANGE

    Very small changes: Chancellor George Osborne forecast stronger growth and lower borrowing in his Budget. But this is a cyclical economic rebound, so the structural government borrowing position is not improving faster than expected.

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  • 18.03.2014 — PORTUGAL: SECOND CHANCE ... TAKEN

    Portugal is on track to repeat Germany’s successful conversion from the unsustainable sick man of Europe to a competitive and balanced growth champion. A wave of structural reforms and painful austerity laid the foundations. We expect Portugal to exit its bail-out programme in May without any tensions.

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  • 12.03.2014 — NO ROOM FOR GIVEAWAYS: UK BUDGET PREVIEW

    A cyclical upswing does not give room for giveaways: Amid a snowballing recovery, the UK fiscal deficit should fall faster than the government has forecast. But that largely reflects a cyclical upturn, rather than a structural improvement in the finances. There is no good news on the latter. Hence we do not expect Chancellor George Osborne to have any room to ease austerity in the 19 March Budget.

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  • 28.02.2014 — UK CONSUMERS ARE BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC
    • Rising optimism should drive strengthening UK consumption over the year
    • Consumer confidence is at its highest since 2007
    • Uncertainty has fallen dramatically
    • Optimism about the economy has also jumped
    • The recovery seems to be feeding through to consumers
    • Consumers will probably continue cutting their saving
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Macro Update

UK Macro Update

Global Macro Update

  • 15.03.2016 — US consumption will remain healthy

    Retail sales dipped by 0.1% in February, but “core” sales, excluding motor vehicles, gasoline and building materials, rose by 0.2% and are up by 3.5% year-over year. Like other high-frequency data, these monthly retail sales bounce around a lot.

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  • 01.03.2016 — Low inflation worries are excessive

    The low inflation has been a positive for economic performance. The US and Europe benefit from lower energy prices and technology innovations that have reduced prices of goods and services.

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  • 12.02.2016 — ECONOMICS - FORECAST UPDATE: TURMOIL TAKES ITS TOLL

    Fundamentals in the Western world remain positive. The stock market correction dampens the near-term outlook but chances of a recession are low. Fundamentals point to sustained moderate economic growth driven by domestic demand. Real incomes and employment are rising on both sides of the Atlantic, monetary policy is accommodative and the Eurozone benefits from a fiscal stimulus of some 0.3% of GDP in 2016. We detect no domestic imbalances or credit excesses serious enough to require a cleansing recession in the Western world.

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  • 10.02.2016 — BOJ's NEGATIVE RATES: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

    What are the implications of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) joining the European Central Bank and central banks of Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland to impose negative rates on new excess bank reserves? The BoJ’s negative rates are more a reflection of Japan’s poor policies and economic performance than a cure. They do not address Japan’s problems and have unintended negative side effects. This sends an important lesson to global monetary and economic policymakers.

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  • 27.01.2016 — BREXIT UPDATE: EXIT RISK INCREASES TO 35%

    Negative shifts in the opinion polls since last summer should remind us that our biggest risk for the UK in 2016 – voting to “leave” in the EU referendum – needs to be watched carefully. With this, we increase our risk of a Brexit from 30% to 35%. 

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  • 19.01.2016 — POLITICAL RISKS IN EUROPE

    To understand Europe, we have to think politics first. In this report, we look at the key political risks ahead in Europe. We assess the impact of the inflow of refugees and of potential terror risks; we discuss the role of Turkey and examine political risks in key European countries including Germany, France and Italy as well as Greece, Finland and Spain. The risks are serious, but probably manageable.

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  • 17.11.2014 — MACRO UPDATE; JAPAN GDP, UK VOTE, G20

    Japan fell back in recession with hugely disappointing third quarter GDP. Output contracted 1.6% qoq annualised compared to consensus expectations of a 2.2% fall, marking the return to technical recession. That followed a 7.3% annualised decline in Q2 after the government hiked sales taxes.

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  • 13.11.2014 — GLOBAL MACRO: CHINESE SLOWDOWN, RUSSIAN RISK

    Chinese growth rates slowed in October again, although retail sales strength points to resilient consumption. Russia continues to stoke tensions in Esatern Ukraine, despite more signs of economic troubles at home.

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  • 31.10.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: GERMANY, UKRAINE, JAPAN

    German retail sales drop, but consumption remains fundamentally sound. Ukraine gets Russian gas over the winter. Japan gets more monetary stimulus, but that is not a sustainable way out of the long-run malaise.

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  • 30.10.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: FED, EUROZONE TRENDS

    The Fed ends QE, but keeps the guidance. In the Eurozone, some positive news, some mixed.

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  • 27.10.2014 — UKRAINE: MODERATE PRO-EU PARTIES WIN ELECTIONS

    The Ukraine risk continues to fade as radical anti-Russian parties fail to gather support.

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  • 13.10.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: EUROZONE, GREECE, CHINA

    France and Germany take spotlight at the Eurozone finance minister meeting. Greece avoided elections for now, but the risk is not over. China's export data should soothe nerves.

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  • 01.10.2014 — GLOBAL MACRO: JAPAN MOMENTUM FADING, CHINA STABLE

    Japan's leading indicator slip at a high level, while China's are stable at a low level. China faces new political risks in Hong Kong.

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  • 05.09.2014 — UNEVEN RECOVERY

    Global Outlook: An Uneven Recovery
    - US: fiscal drag over, economy responds to low rates = solid growth
    - China: sufficient growth, risks well contained
    - Emerging world: the good, the mixed and the ugly
    - Eurozone: crisis over – but Putin shock hits the core, interrupts upswing
    - Britain: back to boom-bust?
    - Tail risk: Russia wages open war against Ukraine?

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  • 29.08.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: GERMAN RETAIL SALES; JAPAN WEAKNESS

    Both German retail sales and the Japanese economy had a weak start in Q3.

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  • 26.08.2014 — HOW FAR WILL PUTIN GO?

    How far will Putin go in his semi-covert war against Ukraine? Since March, this has been the key issue clouding the European economic outlook. We do not know the final answer yet, and Putin himself may not have made up his mind yet. But the last few weeks have provided further clues. Some of them are worrying.

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  • 21.08.2014 — GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE: US FED, CHINA PMI

    The Fed is preparing markets for its exit strategy, while Chinese growth seems to be slowing again after the mini-stimulus.

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  • 20.08.2014 — GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE: JAPAN, UK, UKRAINE

    Japanese exports start well into Q3, UK inflation drop allows BoE to keep rates low, Ukraine battle rages on but some political thawing.

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  • 11.08.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: TURKEY, ITALY, ESTONIA

    Erdogan's election victory is good for short-term stability; Renzi's commitment to the deficit target shows that Italy's problems are not fiscal; Estonia is growing again.

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  • 06.08.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: UKRAINE, GERMAN ORDERS, SCOTLAND

    Tensions in Ukraine rise further, German factory orders dip, Scotland independence risk recedes.

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  • 04.08.2014 — MONDAY MACRO UPDATE: CHINA, PORTUGAL, GREECE

    China: steady as she goes. Portugal rescues Espirito Santo. Moody's finally follows suit on Greece.

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  • 30.07.2014 — RUSSIAN RISKS AND THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS

    While the people of Ukraine are the victims, Russia and its president are likely to be the ultimate losers of their covert war against Ukraine.

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  • 15.07.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: CHINA, JAPAN STIMULUS ON TRACK

    The Bank of Japan kept its asset purchases rate unchanged, while Chinese monetary data shows stimulus reaching the economy.

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  • 10.07.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: US FED, CHINA TRADE

    The Fed will finish QE in October 2014 and Chinese trade reached growth rates in line with recent averages after weakness earlier this year.

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  • 25.06.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: GERMAN CONSUMERS, FRENCH BUSINESS, UK CARNEY

    German consumer get bullish, French business are disappointed and the UK central bank governor strikes a cautious note in interest rates, which earns him being called an "unreliable boyfriend".

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  • 13.06.2014 — CHINA: SHIFT TOWARDS CONSUMPTION

    The rebalancing of the economy away from investment towards more consumption is making progress.

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  • 10.06.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: GREECE, UKRAINE

    While Greece's cabinet reshuffle is a PR gimmick, the serious risks in Ukraine are receding.

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  • 04.06.2014 — PORTUGAL’S COURT DELAYS, US FED DISCUSSING EXIT

    The €700m decision by Portugal's court will not be the last setback to overcome. The Fed's balance sheet would shrink by a mere 0.2% in the first year if it allowed a passive rundown of purchased assets.

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  • 02.06.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: PORTUGAL, SPAIN, CHINA

    Portugal's court strikes again, Spain cuts taxes and Chinese sentiment stablises.

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  • 19.05.2014 — GREEK POLL, ECB CUT, IRISH UPGRADE, UKRAINE RISK

    The first round of regional elections produced no clear winner. More importantly, it had no clear loser. At the margin, this reduces slightly the risk that the fragile coalition of centre-right New Democracy with the centre-left Pasok could fall apart after the second round of regional elections coupled with the EU parliamentary elections next Sunday.

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  • 16.05.2014 — FORECAST UPDATE: EUROZONE, ECB, JAPAN

    Yesterday’s data for Q1 GDP data were surprisingly weak. Eurozone growth decelerated slightly to a quarterly annualised rate of 0.76% (0.19% qoq) from an average rate of 0.92% for the three quarters before (0.23% qoq). The Q1 result was well below our 0.4% qoq forecast.

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  • 08.05.2014 — FED YELLEN, UKRAINE IMPACT, GERMAN ORDERS AND TAXES

    As usual, pundits will dissect every word Yellen says at her semi-annual testimony today. But why bother? Even she simply cannot know the precise state of the US economy in late 2014 and early 2015.

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  • 10.04.2014 — CHINA TRADE, GREEK BOND SALE, DOVISH FED

    Chinese trade unexpectedly declined in March, but the fall exaggerates the underlying slowdown. Exports fell 6.6%yoy in March, well below consensus expectations of a 4.8% rise and the first time since 2009 that they have fallen for 2 months in a row. 

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  • 08.04.2014 — BOJ HOLDS, ECB DEBATES

    Japan’s central bank gave no indication of any imminent additional monetary stimulus after its meeting today. But that could still change once the impact of the April sales tax increase on domestic demand and inflation feeds through to economic data.

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  • 01.04.2014 — FRANCE, RUSSIA RETREAT, CHINA

    President Hollande is visibly preparing France for tough reforms by appointing his tough minister of the interior Manuel Valls to Prime Minister. Valls and his cabinet will have the unpleasant task of spelling out €50bn of spending cuts for 2015-2017 to fund tax cuts and deficit reduction.

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  • 31.03.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: UKRAINE, FRANCE, GREECE

    Two pieces of news suggest a possible easing of tensions around Ukraine. First, Putin called Obama and Russian foreign minister Lavrov then met his US counterpart Kerry for talks about Ukraine, with the US side demanding a withdrawal of Russian troops from the border and Russia suggesting to turn Ukraine into a federation. 

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  • 24.03.2014 — MACRO UPDATE: FRANCE, CHINA

    Heavy defeat in the first round of the municipal elections should serve as another warning shot to French President Hollande. In the best case, it may trigger more reforms. If the government does not manage to boost economic growth and lower unemployment significantly in the next few years, winning another term in 2017 will be impossible.

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  • 12.03.2014 — JAPAN CONSUMERS, ITALY REFORMS

    2014 is shaping up to be a crucial year for Prime Minister Abe. After the easy part of Abenomics, trying to stimulate the economy for a while, the hard work of fiscal and structural reforms needs to begin. Japan’s first major step to reduce the extremely high budget deficit of 10% of GDP in 2013 is a big increase in sales tax from 5% to 8% in April. 

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  • 03.03.2014 — CHINA PMI

    China should expand solidly again this year. The Markit manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 48.5 this morning, down from 49.5 in January. But the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 55.0 from 53.4, not far off its average of the past three years. The official manufacturing PMI, which has a larger sample size than the Markit equivalent, was 50.2 in February, roughly in-line with its average during 2012 when the Chinese economy grew 7.7%. Growth is gradually slowing in China, but it will probably remain strong for the foreseeable future. 

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