Horizon Q4 | 2021

Chance of year-end rally and reflation revival: Growth fears and expectations of declining inflation dominated the markets in the summer. Despite economic dampeners, growth and inflation should be more sustainable in the medium term and have potential to surprise.

Prof Dr Bernd Meyer and team provide an outlook for the 4th quarter of 2021 in the current Horizon publication.

Key messages of the capital market outlook

  • Short-term dampener: The powerful recovery continues despite temporary setbacks. The prevailing scepticism about growth in the third quarter seems exaggerated.
  • Reflation revival: Looking ahead to an economically solid 2022, strong growth, higher inflation over the longer term and the typical seasonality, bond yields
    should rise and cyclical assets gain.
  • Clear preferences: Equities and some commodities will continue to be favoured over bonds. For the time being, however, short term risks caution against
    adopting an overly aggressive position.

Your contact

Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer

Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer has been Chief Investment Strategist at Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management since October 2017, where he is responsible for discretionary multi-asset strategies and wealth management mandates. Prof. Dr. Meyer was initially Head of European Equity Strategy at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt and London and, from 2010, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Research at Commerzbank. In this role Prof. Dr. Meyer has received several awards. In the renowned Extel Survey from 2013 to 2017, he and his team ranked among the top three multi-asset research teams worldwide. Prof. Dr. Meyer is DVFA Investment Analyst, Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and guest lecturer for "Empirical Research in Finance" at the University of Trier. He has published numerous articles and two books and received three scientific awards.

Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Multi Asset
Phone +49 69 91 30 90-225
Ulrich Urbahn

Ulrich Urbahn joined Berenberg in October 2017 and is portfolio manager of the flexible multi-asset fund Berenberg Variato. In addition to generating investment ideas, his focus is on capital market communication. After completing his double degree in economics and mathematics at the University of Heidelberg, Urbahn gained two years of market experience at Commerzbank as a quantitative portfolio analyst before becoming a cross asset strategist in 2010, where he was responsible in particular for the asset classes equities, REITs and commodities and covered institutional clients in Germany and abroad for more than seven years. Urbahn is a CFA charterholder and belonged from 2013 to 2017 to the top three multi-asset research teams worldwide, according to the renowned Extel survey.

Head of Multi Asset Strategy & Research
Phone +49 69 91 30 90-225