There is currently little to recommend the US dollar
Trump's immigration and tariff policies are having a lasting negative impact on US economic growth. The slower economic momentum will tend to weigh on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Fed is countering the cooling labour market with further interest rate cuts. This reduces the key interest rate differential with other central banks, such as ECB. Capital outflows from the US are the likely consequence. This could put additional pressure on the dollar. In addition, President Trump is increasingly attempting to extend his influence over a wide range of US institutions. The independence of the Fed is also increasingly under threat, which will increase inflation risks in the medium term. The market is responding to this with a weaker dollar and rising yields on long-term US government bonds. The continuing rapid rise in US government debt is also a cause for concern. Overall, there is little to recommend the greenback at present. We expect the dollar to depreciate further against the euro in the coming year, although there is a risk that the political uncertainty in France could become the Achilles heel of the euro's strength.
Trumps dangerous game
Market responds to US policy with high yields and weak dollar
Trump's tariff hammer hits Switzerland with full force
The Swiss economy grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Industrial value added and exports performed particularly poorly. The US tariff hammer has hit Switzerland hard, with import duties at 39% higher than for all other industrialised nations. The US is Switzerland's most important trading partner after the EU. The further economic development of the Alpine republic will therefore depend heavily on whether it will be possible to reduce US tariffs in negotiations with the White House. However, if the US were to introduce tariffs on pharmaceutical products, as it has repeatedly threatened to do, this would have a significant impact on Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) would like to support the economy by further easing monetary policy, but the key interest rate has been at 0.0% since 20 June. It is considered unlikely that the SNB will decide to introduce negative interest rates again. However, this cannot be ruled out entirely, as in addition to the weak economy, the Swiss inflation rate was once again only just positive at 0.2% in August. The Swiss franc weakened slightly in the meantime due to these events, but overall it remains fairly stable at around 0.93 francs per euro. We expect further sideways movement. However, the next steps taken by the White House will also be decisive for Switzerland and the Swiss franc.
Swiss franc stable despite zero interest rate policy
Another negative interest rate seems unlikely at present
Exchange rate forecasts
Berenberg and consensus forecasts compared, figures for mid and end of 2026
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