Insights

Has your area of responsibility changed in recent years?

Definitely, both operationally and in terms of content. We have increasingly automated processes for capital market publications and are making greater use of artificial intelligence, for example to translate or summarise texts. The market structure itself has also changed – not least because of the increasing number of ETF savings plans and the stronger influence of rule-based investment strategies: in addition to fundamental indicators, sentiment, flow and positioning analyses are now much more important. Due to interest rate and macroeconomic volatility, so-called style volatility is playing a greater role. Our multi-asset strategies are therefore more broadly positioned. It was particularly interesting this year that the stocks in the S&P 500 were hardly correlated with each other – therefore, the decisive factor was not so much the overall equity allocation, but rather the selection of the right sectors and investment styles.

How do you put these findings into practice?

In addition to fundamental analysis, we are paying even closer attention to liquidity indicators such as money supply growth and positioning data, and are increasingly incorporating the options market. This market has grown enormously since the coronavirus crisis, not least due to the influence of US private investors and ETF solutions involving options. Share buyback programmes have also become more relevant. Ultimately, it is important to understand how key investor groups are currently positioned – extreme positions are particularly interesting here – in which direction they are currently changing their positions and whether trend reversals could be on the horizon. Analysing investor sentiment is also important in this regard

You are also involved in the fund management of two Berenberg funds. Can you tell us more about them?

Firstly, we are responsible for Berenberg Variato, a flexible, benchmark-free multi-asset fund with a return target of more than 4% p.a. after costs. Since its inception, or rather in the last six calendar years, we have achieved this target five times, with a very good risk/return ratio. We are also doing very well so far this year. This is because we had already started to partially hedge the US dollar in January, after the consensus had become too optimistic for the US currency and positioning hadbecome too one-sided. However, what helped most was that we had already reduced the equity allocation by more than 15 percentage points at its peak through sales and hedging before ‘Liberation Day’. We then used the sell-off to unwind equity hedges and selectively buy back equities that we find attractive in the long term. From the end of May, we then raised the equity allocation again more significantly. In addition, our portfolio construction, which focuses heavily on ‘true multi-asset’, has proven its worth. We are correspondingly heavily invested in real assets and have an allocation of more than 14% in gold, silver and the corresponding mining companies. We are also broadly diversified regionally, which has allowed us to benefit from the favourable developments in China and other Asian countries.

The second fund, Berenberg Guardian, was launched in November 2023. Its objective is to generate positive returns when equity markets are falling and to minimise losses when markets are rising. Investors have now entrusted us with over €200 million in this strategy, which shows that the hedging approach is convincing. What investors particularly appreciate is that the maximum loss to date has been less than 2%, even though, with a few exceptions, the markets have only moved in one direction since the end of 2023: upwards.

What were the reasons for setting up the protection fund?

Since 2022, equities and government bonds have often moved in the same direction – mainly due to the return of inflation. In addition, many investors are increasingly concerned about rising government debt worldwide. In the past, bonds often acted as a counterweight when equities fell. Today, this buffer no longer works as reliably. That is why we believe new solutions are needed in portfolio construction: 1) broader diversification in the portfolio, for example with gold or commodities, and 2) hedging strategies with options that offer protection in difficult market phases – as with Berenberg Guardian. It is important that the insurance premiums for the hedges are as low as possible. Traditional hedging strategies are often expensive because they operate independently of the volatility environment and systematically purchase hedges. These hedges are then usually held until maturity. Our approach is more flexible: we invest more in hedges when they are cheap and less when they are expensive. To do this, we work with a fixed budget that we spread over several months. We can also adjust the hedges to the current market environment and take some of the profits generated by the hedges during market corrections so that they are not completely lost again if there is a rapid recovery (‘V-shaped recovery’), as has often been observed recently. Another advantage is that more and more funds and ETFs are selling risk and volatility and betting on calm markets. This makes hedges cheaper – but at the same time makes stock markets more vulnerable to sudden shocks. Both of these factors play into our strategy.

If you look to the future, what will have the greatest impact on fund management in the coming years?

I expect the influence of technology and artificial intelligence to continue to grow, whether in data analysis, idea generation or trading decisions. Fundamentally, structural inflation, rising bond yields, depreciation of the US dollar and the search for tangible assets and alternative hedges are likely to be the defining trends of the coming years. These trends, combined with the geopolitical situation, will continue to cause significant volatility in the markets. For fund managers, this means acting even more flexibly, viewing markets from multiple perspectives and, where necessary, incorporating unconventional forms of investment.

How does “Berenberg Go” differ from the classic “Berenberg Multi Manager” fund strategy?

The main difference lies in the range of funds used. While “Berenberg Go” works with internal funds and ETFs, “Berenberg Multi Manager” also incorporates selected strategies from external providers – following a best-in-class approach. However, both strategies share the same philosophy: active quota management, strategic inclusion of alternative investments such as gold, and a structured selection process. They are therefore two variants of the same basic conviction – differing in the depth of implementation.

How has the fund landscape changed in recent years? Which trends are currently still underestimated?

The ETF trend has changed the fund landscape considerably. Today, many markets and themes can be mapped cost-efficiently – and can be managed flexibly thanks to exchange trading. The field of active ETFs is particularly dynamic. Even if their growth in Europe is slower than in the US, their potential should not be underestimated. In addition, I see a renaissance of active funds – particularly in the bond sector, but increasingly also in equities. This is because the market is becoming more selective: the dominance of a few large technology stocks could become less important. This creates more opportunities for active management. However, it remains challenging to identify strategies that add value. Herein lies our claim – and our task.