Economics
- Recovery delayed by persistent wave of infections. Sluggish vaccination progress weighs on recovery.
- USA and UK benefit thanks to swift vaccination of their populations.
- Monetary and fiscal policy support alongside vaccines suggest a strong recovery in summer.
Equities
- Stock markets have made volatile gains. Beneath the surface, strong rotations continue to occur.
- Analysts have raised earnings estimates across almost all regions, valuations have consequently fallen.
- We remain focused on “quality growth" companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as emerging market or UK equities.
Bonds
- Government bonds: Inflation expectations and yields are rising, investment opportunities remain unattractive.
- Euro corporate bonds show resilience and potential for further moderate spread tightening.
- High-yield emerging market bonds in local currencies are promising, duration should be kept short.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Gold stabilises and partly anticipates further rise in interest rates. Jewelry and central bank demand support prices.
- Brent oil recently corrected to USD 60 per barrel. Fundamental starting position remains good, prices likely to pick up again.
- Base metals consolidate after strong rally. Cyclical and structural drivers should provide further tailwind.
Currencies
- US stimulus package strengthens the US dollar for the time being. Rising government debt will only become a burden later.
- The British pound continues to benefit from rapid progress in the vaccination process. Bank of England waits and sees.
- The Swiss franc falls against the euro to its lowest level in over a year, but remains highly valued overall.
