Horizon Handout April 2021

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • Recovery delayed by persistent wave of infections. Sluggish vaccination progress weighs on recovery.
  • USA and UK benefit thanks to swift vaccination of their populations.
  • Monetary and fiscal policy support alongside vaccines suggest a strong recovery in summer.


  • Stock markets have made volatile gains. Beneath the surface, strong rotations continue to occur.
  • Analysts have raised earnings estimates across almost all regions, valuations have consequently fallen.
  • We remain focused on “quality growth" companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as emerging market or UK equities.


  • Government bonds: Inflation expectations and yields are rising, investment opportunities remain unattractive.
  • Euro corporate bonds show resilience and potential for further moderate spread tightening.
  • High-yield emerging market bonds in local currencies are promising, duration should be kept short.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Gold stabilises and partly anticipates further rise in interest rates. Jewelry and central bank demand support prices.
  • Brent oil recently corrected to USD 60 per barrel. Fundamental starting position remains good, prices likely to pick up again.
  • Base metals consolidate after strong rally. Cyclical and structural drivers should provide further tailwind.


  • US stimulus package strengthens the US dollar for the time being. Rising government debt will only become a burden later.
  • The British pound continues to benefit from rapid progress in the vaccination process. Bank of England waits and sees.
  • The Swiss franc falls against the euro to its lowest level in over a year, but remains highly valued overall.

Read the full article here.