Economics
- Initially weak growth in the eurozone, German reforms could contribute to more momentum from spring onwards.
- The US economy remains robust. Trump's programme gives the economy a short-term boost with long-term risks.
- The UK is hoping to emerge from stagnation in spring.
Equities
- Strong start to the year for equity markets. Continued outperformance in Europe requires structural improvements.
- Global liquidity, rate cuts and growth support equities. Market breadth should increase.
- US policy remains a source of uncertainty. Counter-cyclical measures and balanced positioning required.
Bonds
- As expected, the Fed is taking a break, while the ECB continues to cut its key interest rate.
- The risk of valuation corrections has recently increased in both the high-yield and IG segments.
- The trade and customs policy of the new US President Donald Trump continues to cause tensions in the emerging markets.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Uncertainty about the crude oil price remains due to a forecast supply overhang.
- Gold seems to be immune to bad news. However, high futures positioning is vulnerable to setbacks.
- Ambiguous data from China cause industrial metals to fluctuate. However, physical supply remains tight and demand high.
Currencies
- The US dollar briefly flirted with parity against the euro.
- The tailwind for the greenback has recently eased, the euro could gain further over the course of the year.
- Rising interest rates in Japan support the yen.
