Economics
- The global economy is losing considerable momentum. Inflationary pressure continues to fall - but not to 2%.
- USA: soft landing ahead, new momentum in autumn 2024. Europe: stagnation until spring 2024.
- Monetary policy: interest rate peak reached, first rate cuts in 2024.
Equities
- Limited earnings growth in 2024 is likely to limit upside potential for equities.
- Europe and especially small caps have more potential for PE expansion, as a lot of the negative has already been priced in.
- Our focus is on quality growth stocks, which should no longer be burdened by rising interest rates.
Bonds
- US Treasuries and UK Gilts lead for government bonds with high credit ratings in local currency - Bunds not the first choice.
- In European corporate bonds, we favour the investment grade segment and avoid cyclicals.
- In the emerging markets, we see potential in the local currency segment in particular.
Alternative investments
- Oil under pressure despite OPEC cuts. Contango points to high supply. Negative outlook priced in, however.
- Gold near all-time high thanks to geopolitics and dovish central banks. Beware of another "higher for longer".
- Base metals move sideways. Demand in China is already rising. More potential with Western manufacturing picking up.
Currencies
- Geopolitics and monetary policy are the main drivers on the currency market. Euro/US dollar: Focus on inflation dynamics.
- Key interest and market rates gave the US dollar a boost in 2023. However, the advantage could diminish somewhat in 2024.
- EUR/CHF remains well below parity. The franc will remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions persist.
