Economics
- ECB torn between growth concerns and persistent inflationary pressure.
- Ultra-soft landing in the US followed by a Trump boost.
- Interrupted recovery in the UK.
Equities
- US equities significantly outperformed in 2024, but this divergence is unlikely to be repeated in 2025.
- 2025 with more M&A activity. European small caps are in focus due to the weak euro and low valuations.
- We expect healthy market breadth in 2025, but the upside potential for global equities is likely to be limited.
Bonds
- Safe government bonds look attractive for hedging purposes but offer little return potential.
- European corporate bonds offer at least fair, and in some cases attractive, yields.
- Emerging market local currency bonds offer the prospect of positive returns.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Despite the continuation of production cuts by OPEC+, supply remains ample. China's demand remains weak.
- Fundamental drivers should give the gold price a further boost after a period of consolidation.
- In the short term, an economic recovery in industry is needed for industrial metals. Medium-term drivers remain intact.
Currencies
- Politics, not central banks, are driving exchange rates.
- The US dollar currently has a number of advantages, but the wind could change somewhat next year.
- The strong franc is a cause for concern for the Swiss National Bank.
