Economics
- Trump’s tariff policy is weakening the USA and postponing the recovery in the eurozone. Trade deals until July 2025?
- New German government: tailwind from reforms and additional spending on the military and infrastructure.
- The Fed and now the ECB have reached the end of the interest rate cycle.
Equities
- US equites stagnate in euros, DAX benefits from the new government’s policy change.
- Earnings expectations for US companies have fallen, uncertainties due to politics and the trade dispute are a burden. However, we no longer expect any major negative earnings revisions.
- New highs also possible in the US in the medium term, mainly thanks to the tech sector and demand from underinvested investors.
Bonds
- Safe government bonds burdened by interest rate volatility, upside potential only to be expected in the event of economic weakness.
- The financial sector remains the favourite for European corporate bonds, while the real estate sector is coming into focus.
- In emerging markets, we consider local currency bonds to be particularly promising.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Geopolitics on the oil market will be short-lived. Ultimately, abundant supply will prevail.
- Despite reaching an all-time high, gold remains attractive in the long term as government debt continues to rise.
- In addition to investments in green technologies, industrial metals will also benefit from increased infrastructure and defense spending in the medium term.
Currencies
- The weak dollar is here to stay.
- BoJ caught between rising inflation and economic concerns.
- Japanese yen should benefit from further interest rate hikes.
