Economics
- The hesitant economic recovery in the eurozone is being driven primarily by the services sector.
- Inflation falls and confidence rises in the UK.
- The US economy is slowly cooling down, but there is no sign of a slump.
Equities
- Equity markets to trend sideways in a volatile manner until the US elections. Anti-cyclical action therefore seems sensible.
- In terms of valuation, Europe has room for upside, especially if the economic upturn continues.
- Focus on megatrend winners, European small caps and commodity shares. Defensive equities as a tactical addition.
Bonds
- Investors in safe government bonds are benefiting from the rise in interest rates; price gains are not to be expected.
- In the case of European corporate bonds, high-yield securities are back.
- Improved economic prospects and yield premiums make local currency securities in emerging markets attractive.
Alternative Investments / commodities
- Gold with structural potential despite strong momentum.
- Oil with a tailwind over the summer.
- Industrial metals attractive in the long term after consolidation.
Currencies
- Start of the interest rate turnaround hardly weighs on the euro.
- Currency effects of falling interest rates will be offset by economic recovery.
- Swiss National Bank will prevent the franc from appreciating too much.
