Horizon Handout July 2024

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The hesitant economic recovery in the eurozone is being driven primarily by the services sector.
  • Inflation falls and confidence rises in the UK.
  • The US economy is slowly cooling down, but there is no sign of a slump.


  • Equity markets to trend sideways in a volatile manner until the US elections. Anti-cyclical action therefore seems sensible.
  • In terms of valuation, Europe has room for upside, especially if the economic upturn continues.
  • Focus on megatrend winners, European small caps and commodity shares. Defensive equities as a tactical addition.


  • Investors in safe government bonds are benefiting from the rise in interest rates; price gains are not to be expected.
  • In the case of European corporate bonds, high-yield securities are back.
  • Improved economic prospects and yield premiums make local currency securities in emerging markets attractive.

Alternative Investments / commodities

  • Gold with structural potential despite strong momentum.
  • Oil with a tailwind over the summer.
  • Industrial metals attractive in the long term after consolidation.


  • Start of the interest rate turnaround hardly weighs on the euro.
  • Currency effects of falling interest rates will be offset by economic recovery.
  • Swiss National Bank will prevent the franc from appreciating too much.