- The economy in the Eurozone is picking up. The inflation rate is still moderate at 2%.
- Inflation is currently in the spotlight in the US. Both overall and core inflation are rising strongly.
- Monetary and fiscal policy remains supportive. However, the Fed has begun to indicate a turnaround.
- Positive earnings revisions thanks to the economic recovery. Estimates for next year are subject to greater uncertainty.
- Equities remain expensively relative to their own history, especially in the US. However, there is no attractive alternative.
- Equity markets are unlikely to have much upside potential at the index level in Q3, but we see opportunities for Asia.
- Safe government bonds continue to move in difficult waters - caution remains advisable.
- Euro corporate bonds: Avoid duration risks, current interest rates at the short end are more attractive.
- In emerging markets, we favour high-yield government bonds and the local currency segment.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Interest rates remain a major burden for gold. Inflation concerns as well as central bank and jewellery demand support.
- Supply response to demand recovery determines oil price. Upside price surprises cannot be ruled out.
- Industrial metals correct. Previous price increase makes itself noticeable in the industry. Dependence on China decreases.
- The statements by the Fed after their last meeting have strengthened the US-dollar, at least temporarily.
- Little news on the British pound. After a strong first quarter, it has settled at 0.86 pounds per euro.
- The swiss franc had worked its way back up with small steps, but fell back somewhat after the last SNB meeting.