Horizon Handout March 2024

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • US economy approaches ultra-soft landing – growth declines only a little below long-term average.
  • Chinese growth stabilizes at around 4% – a weak rate by Chinese standards.
  • Eurozone can turn up again from Q2 onwards after inventory correction comes to an end.


  • Stock markets continue strong rally. Solid reporting season, robust economic data and fiscal policy support share prices.
  • US equities remain expensively valued. Limited potential for further valuation expansion without a sharp interest rate cut.
  • Opportunities in second-line stocks, quality growth stocks and emerging markets, especially Latin America.


  • The robust US economy and stubborn inflation on both sides of the Atlantic are dampening expectations of interest rate cuts.
  • Spreads in the IG and HY segments have recently fallen again due to high demand and a lack of new issues.
  • EM spreads remain stable despite global outflows, supported by high local demand.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Geopolitical risk premium for oil remains, but no clear fundamental imbalance recognisable.
  • Gold defies higher real interest rates and ETF outflows thanks to strong physical demand.
  • Industrial metals are trending sideways and are waiting for clearer impulses from the manufacturing sector.


  • The euro benefits when there is less demand for the US dollar. But there is no real euro strength in sight.
  • The US dollar is benefiting from its status as a "safe haven" and remains structurally strong.
  • Influence of rate expectations – markets increasingly expect first ECB cut to come a bit later.