Horizon Handout June 2021

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • In Germany and Europe, infections are declining and the vaccination process is progressing. The economy is picking up.
  • In the USA, the economic lights are green. Prices are picking up, with inflation rising to 4.2%.
  • Monetary and fiscal policy support remains for the moment. Nevertheless, how is the Fed responding to the upturn in prices?


  • The markets remain nervous and style volatility remains high with no clear trends. Market participants are hedging their bets.
  • Positive surprising corporate earnings and rising earnings growth forecasts supported the markets.
  • We continue to focus on quality growth companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as Latin American equities.


  • Upward pressure on EUR yields weakened recently, government bonds remain unattractive.
  • Risk premiums historically at low level, high-yield bonds offer most potential in relative terms.
  • We continue to keep duration short and underweight bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Gold on the upswing thanks to returning investor demand. Rise in real interest rates remains biggest risk for gold.
  • Crude oil benefits from recovery in demand in the West. However, this is offset by increasingly rising supply.
  • Industrial metals suffer setbacks after new all-time highs. Industry complains about steep price increases.


  • The Euro has overcome its phase of weakness and gained versus the US dollar. Further gains are possible in the mid-term.
  • The British Pound is trending sideways after the strong first quarter. Is new impetus coming from the Bank of England?
  • The Euro/Swiss Franc exchange rate has settled at just under 1.10 Francs per Euro and is trending sideways.

Read the full article here.