Horizon Handout June 2021

Economics

• In Germany and Europe, infections are declining and the vaccination process is progressing. The economy is picking up.
• In the USA, the economic lights are green. Prices are picking up, with inflation rising to 4.2%.
• Monetary and fiscal policy support remains for the moment. Nevertheless, how is the Fed responding to the upturn in prices?

Equities

• The markets remain nervous and style volatility remains high with no clear trends. Market participants are hedging their bets.
• Positive surprising corporate earnings and rising earnings growth forecasts supported the markets.
• We continue to focus on quality growth companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as Latin American equities.

Bonds

• Upward pressure on EUR yields weakened recently, government bonds remain unattractive.
• Risk premiums historically at low level, high-yield bonds offer most potential in relative terms.
• We continue to keep duration short and underweight bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.

Alternative investments / commodities

• Gold on the upswing thanks to returning investor demand. Rise in real interest rates remains biggest risk for gold.
• Crude oil benefits from recovery in demand in the West. However, this is offset by increasingly rising supply.
• Industrial metals suffer setbacks after new all-time highs. Industry complains about steep price increases.

Currencies

• The Euro has overcome its phase of weakness and gained versus the US dollar. Further gains are possible in the mid-term.
• The British Pound is trending sideways after the strong first quarter. Is new impetus coming from the Bank of England?
• The Euro/Swiss Franc exchange rate has settled at just under 1.10 Francs per Euro and is trending sideways.

Read the full article here.