Economics
- The US tariffs pose a significant threat to the economic recovery in the Eurozone.
- The USA is the main victim of Trump’s tariffs chaos.
- ECB and BoE cut key interest rates further, while the Fed’s hands are tied.
Equities
- (US) equities are suffering from uncertainty over tariff policy and its impact on the economy and companies.
- US earnings expectations and valuations remain stretched despite the recent correction, while Europe is cheaply valued.
- A possible slowdown in the US economy in the second quarter and trade disputes could lead to further volatility.
Bonds
- Trump's tariff policy jeopardises investor confidence in the USA. ECB remains on cautious course of interest rate cuts.
- European corporate bonds recently under pressure from Trump tariffs. Investor uncertainty reflected in outflows.
- The emerging bond markets are characterised by Donald Trump's global economic uncertainty.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Sideways movement likely. Prices below USD 60/barrel only realistic temporarily or in the event of a (US) recession.
- Gold continues to be sought after as a safe haven and reaches a new all-time high. However, risk of a correction is increasing.
- Trump's considerable tariff surprises are weighing on industrial metals. However, structural drivers remain intact.
Currencies
- Trump tariffs cause US dollar to plummet.
- The euro wakes up from its deep sleep.
- Beijing uses renminbi to avert damage from trade war.
