Economics
- The economy in the eurozone surprised on the upside in the third quarter and could even gain more momentum next year.
- In order to lower the inflation rate, the Bank of England must slow down the economy. But improvement is in sight for 2026.
- The US economy is benefiting from an AI boom. But Trump's policies will weaken the trend growth in the medium term.
Equities
- Global stock markets reached new all-time highs in October – despite numerous political flares and renewed volatility.
- One reason for the rally is the Q3 reporting season, which got off to a good start in the US and Europe.
- The backdrop for stocks remains bullish. Falling interest rates, solid economic data, and not overly high positioning should all ensure a solid end to the year for equities.
Bonds
- While the US government shutdown is making it difficult for the Fed to set its course, the political situation in Europe remains tense.
- The risk of valuation corrections remains high in both the high-yield and IG segments.
- US President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policy continues to be the central issue in emerging markets.
Alternative investments / commodities
- US sanctions against Russia are leading to a short-term supply shortage of oil. However, the market remains oversupplied in the medium term.
- Gold is experiencing it sharpest decline since 2013. The structural drivers of the bull market remain intact.
- Copper is benefiting from asupply shortage due to production losses. In addition, concerns about tariffs are driving up the price further.
Currencies
- Trump's criticism of the Fed, mounting debt and slowing economic growth are having a negative impact on the dollar.
- The Achilles heel of the euro, however, remains the political situation in France.
- Unlike most other central banks, the Bank of Japan is set to continue raising its key interest rate. This will help the yen to recover.
