Economics
- Following a weaker third quarter, we anticipate stronger growth for the eurozone in the final quarter 2025.
- Rising inflation in the UK is preventing further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
- Trump is pushing ahead with a comprehensive restructuring of the United States, which will not be without consequences for the economy.
Equities
- US equities caught up significantly in the third quarter but remain at the bottom of the table since the beginning of the year.
- Earnings expectations for US companies have been revised upwards. Europe will see no earnings growth in 2025.
- Seasonality points to a sustained stock market rally. Asian emerging markets are becoming increasingly attractive.
Bonds
- Safe government bonds remain unattractive given public debt levels and the economic recovery.
- Valuations for European corporate bonds call for caution. The financial sector remains the favorite.
- Emerging market bonds look promising; we favor bonds from frontier markets
Alternative investments / commodities
- OPEC+ continues to turn up the oil tap. Beyond geopolitics, there are few reasons for optimism.
- Gold is fuelled by interest rate cuts and rising government debt. Silver is further benefiting from the persistent deficit.
- Industrial metals are caught between structural tailwin
Currencies
- There are various reasons why the US dollar recently fell to its lowest level against the euro in four years.
- Among other things, concerns about the independence of the Fed, falling interest rates and the growing mountain of debt.
- The Swiss National Bank would like to support the economy. However, a return to negativeinterest rates is unlikely
