Economics
- The trade agreement between the EU and the US ends uncertainty and could help the eurozone recover.
- The British economy is being supported by increased government spending, real wage growth and a relaxed monetary policy.
- Trump continues to cause chaos, and this policy will not be without consequences for the US economy.
Equities
- US equities reach new all-time highs due to a strong reporting season, further purchases by systematic investors and hopes of interest rate cuts.
- The US reporting season exceeds (low) expectations. In Europe, banks are the main drivers of earnings growth.
- Weaker seasonality, a possible liquidity withdrawal and increased positioning are likely to limit upside potential in the short term.
Bonds
- In addition to political pressure, the Fed is facing increased inflation risks and a weakening labour market.
- The risk of valuation adjustments has risen recently in both the high-yield and investment-grade segments.
- US President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policy remains the key issue in emerging markets.
Alternative investments / commodities
- With weak demand growth and rising production, the supply surplus in crude oil is here to
stay. - Gold in a sideways trend. Silver is attractively valued, with highdemand and on the verge of a technical breakout.
- The absence of US tariffs on copper leads to a crash on COMEX. Frontloaded demand limits the upside potential.
Currencies
- The weakening economic momentum and further interest rate cuts by the Fed will weigh on the dollar.
- Added to this are Trump's attacks on the Fed and the continuing rise in debt. At present, there is little to recommend the US dollar.
- In Japan, pressure is mounting on the central bank to raise key interest rates further. This could strengthen the Japanese yen in the medium term.
