Economics
- More growth for the eurozone this summer - if Trump doesn't intervene.
- Rising inflation in the UK is tying the Bank of England's hands.
- The US economy is booming, but Trump's policies pose risks.
Equities
- European equities are once again outperforming US equities. However, a lot of positive factors have already been priced in.
- US reporting season largely surprised to the upside. European equities have also beaten expectations so far.
- A possible US economic slowdown in Q2 and trade disputes could noticeably increase volatility.
Bonds
- Stubborn inflation remains the Fed's focus, while Europe worries about rising defence spending.
- The risk of valuation corrections has increased recently in both high yield and IG.
- New US President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies continue to cause tensions in emerging markets.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Oil prices decline amid prospects of peace negotiations. Demand weakens, but supply remains price-sensitive.
- Gold consolidates after strong performance and high positioning. However, structural drivers remain unaffected and intact.
- Industrial metals benefit from potential US tariffs. Slowing economic momentum poses a short-term risk.
Currencies
- Donald Trump's tariff threats in particular have been moving currency markets recently.
- Given the low expectations for the eurozone, it does not take much to give the euro a boost.
- The Japanese economic recovery is supporting the Yen.
