Horizon Handout May 2024

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The Eurozone economy is regaining momentum only slowly after the near-stagnation of 2023.
  • Lower inflation and expected interest rate cuts are setting the stage for the British economy to make up for lost ground.
  • The US economy is thriving despite a restrictive monetary policy.


  • Equity markets have recently corrected slightly. US equities have fallen more sharply than their European counterparts.
  • We have used the recent weakness to neutralise our equity exposure and reduce our US underweight.
  • Until the US elections, we expect a volatile sideways movement with limited upside potential.


  • Interest rate cut expectations for the Fed further reduced in view of stubborn inflation data in the USA.
  • Idiosyncratic stress in the high-yield corporate bond segment. IG fundamentally and technically well supported.
  • Positive economic data in the emerging markets continue to make the local currency bond segment attractive.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Gold defies higher real interest rates, a firm dollar and ETF outflows. Hot in the short term, but still an important hedge.
  • Crude oil in a sideways trend without geopolitical escalation. Supply and demand currently appear to be in balance.
  • Industrial metals benefit from recovery in the manufacturing sector and ban on Russian metal. Overheated in the short term.


  • Several factors are currently giving the US dollar a tailwind.
  • The markets have already priced in that the Fed will start cutting interest rates much later than the ECB.
  • In the coming months, some of the factors currently supporting the US dollar could weaken.