Economics
- Eurozone economy unlikely to get going until 2025.
- UK economy with hesitant upturn.
- US economy lands ultra-soft.
Equities
- Strong US quarterly numbers are supporting markets, while the US election is causing short-term volatility.
- The Q3 reporting season is in full swing, with financials and healthcare standing out in Europe.
- Current market sentiment close to neutral.
Bonds
- Strong US economy and labour market support US yields. Ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties in France.
- Corporate bonds continue to be supported by strong balance sheets and cash flows.
- Due to increased interest rate volatility, we continue to keep duration at the overall bond level at neutral.
Alternative investments / commodities
- The fundamentals for oil are good, but supply is rising. Without demand growth (from China), there is a risk of a glut.
- Despite the slowdown in central bank purchases, gold remains fundamentally supported by positive ETF flows.
- Industrial metals await short-term stimulus from China. Structural supply shortage provides medium-term support.
Currencies
- By 2025, a smaller growth advantage of the US over the eurozone could support the euro.
- A possible victory for Trump in the US presidential election, on the other hand, would speak in favour of the dollar.
- The Swiss National Bank is fighting against a too strong franc.
