- US: The Fed has hesitated for a long time, now it is stepping hard on the brakes. Mild US recession in 2023.
- Putin cuts gas supply. High gas prices hit Europe hard. Recession until spring 2023, recovery afterwards.
- US-Inflation peak reached. Euro inflation to rise until the end of 2022. Price pressure decreases strongly from spring 2023.
- Equities burdened by ongoing restrictive interest rate policy after summer rally. Limited drawdown risks below annual lows.
- End of reporting season means markets shift focus to macro data and central banks. Volatility is likely to rise.
- We are slightly underweight in equities, but with a tendency to neutralise. Recovery potential in the event of a rate pivot.
- Inflation concerns once again dominate markets. Yields on safe government bonds have risen noticeably recently.
- Corporate bonds are attractive over the long term. Emerging market bonds have weakened, but held their ground in relative terms.
- We maintain our less severe underweight in bonds and position ourselves close to neutral in duration.
- Gold recently burdened by USD strength and central banks' rate policy. Recession scenario holds upside potential.
- Oil price supported by supply shortage and new demand. OPEC cuts and gas substitution exacerbate deficit.
- Metals weighed down by China lockdowns and recession. If the trend reverses, the recovery should come quickly.
- The euro under pressure ahead of the ECB's September meeting. Could a big interest rate move turn the negative sentiment?
- Parity with the US dollar is now the new reality. For the time being, significantly higher quotations are unlikely.
- Against the franc, the euro has fallen well below parity due to political risks and the ECB's hesitancy.