Central banks set the tone

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly


  • US: The Fed has hesitated for a long time, now it is stepping hard on the brakes. Mild US recession in 2023.
  • Putin cuts gas supply. High gas prices hit Europe hard. Recession until spring 2023, recovery afterwards.
  • US-Inflation peak reached. Euro inflation to rise until the end of 2022. Price pressure decreases strongly from spring 2023.


  • Equities burdened by ongoing restrictive interest rate policy after summer rally. Limited drawdown risks below annual lows.
  • End of reporting season means markets shift focus to macro data and central banks. Volatility is likely to rise.
  • We are slightly underweight in equities, but with a tendency to neutralise. Recovery potential in the event of a rate pivot.


  • Inflation concerns once again dominate markets. Yields on safe government bonds have risen noticeably recently.
  • Corporate bonds are attractive over the long term. Emerging market bonds have weakened, but held their ground in relative terms.
  • We maintain our less severe underweight in bonds and position ourselves close to neutral in duration.


  • Gold recently burdened by USD strength and central banks' rate policy. Recession scenario holds upside potential.
  • Oil price supported by supply shortage and new demand. OPEC cuts and gas substitution exacerbate deficit.
  • Metals weighed down by China lockdowns and recession. If the trend reverses, the recovery should come quickly.


  • The euro under pressure ahead of the ECB's September meeting. Could a big interest rate move turn the negative sentiment?
  • Parity with the US dollar is now the new reality. For the time being, significantly higher quotations are unlikely.
  • Against the franc, the euro has fallen well below parity due to political risks and the ECB's hesitancy.