At a glance
Economics
- Weak growth in the eurozone, with no additional momentum expected until spring 2025.
- France and Germany are weighing on the eurozone. 2025 will see more growth due to falling interest rates and rising real wages.
- For central banks, the last few metres of monetary easing are the most difficult.
Equities
- Positive economic data, favourable seasonality and gradual interest rate cuts are supporting the US equity market.
- Global liquidity, hopes of a soft landing and Donald Trump's election victory are adding breadth to the market.
- We remain optimistic for the end of the year. In Europe, the negatives seem to be largely priced in.
Bonds
- Trump's policy agenda (tariffs, immigration, debt) increases the risk of inflation. We are keeping duration close to neutral.
- Euro IG credit has positive fundamentals, but increased risk of setbacks. HY offers selective opportunities.
- EM local currency bonds are an attractive portfolio addition.
Commodities
- Gold corrects after Trump victory, but remains supported by central bank buying and geopolitical risks.
- Crude oil sideways for now. Price rise unlikely without geopolitical escalation and strong demand growth.
- Industrial metals weighed down by potential trade wars following Trump's victory. Long-term drivers remain intact.
Currencies
- Politics, not central banks, are driving exchange rates.
- The US dollar currently has a lot going for it – but the wind could change somewhat in the coming year.
- The strong franc is a cause for concern for the Swiss National Bank.
