Equity markets with widening valuations and new all-time highs

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US economy more robust than expected, soft landing ahead. China is slowly stabilising.
  • Europe: Economy at low point, inventory correction in industry ends at the beginning of 2024, upturn from Easter.
  • Inflation continues to fall, interest rate turnaround approaches: Fed, ECB and BoE cut interest rates from Q2.


  • Equities with new all-time highs after bumpy start to the year. Market breadth remains low and large caps continue to dominate.
  • Soft landing scenario remains market consensus. High investor positioning limits upside potential.
  • We continue to feel comfortable with our balanced positioning. Small caps more attractive again as the economy recovers.


  • Yields on safe government bonds have risen since the beginning of the year in the face of hawkish central banks.
  • Increased interest rate volatility on both sides of the Atlantic continues to argue for duration close to neutral.
  • High yield valuation increasingly unattractive, IG fundamentally well positioned. EM local currency bonds favoured.


  • Gold remains robust despite the decline in interest rate optimism and continues to offer an attractive addition to the portfolio.
  • Crude oil rose due to the attacks by the Houthi rebels, but the potential is limited due to sufficient supply.
  • Chinese stimulus measures support industrial metal prices, rising industrial activity could provide a tailwind.


  • EUR/USD: Recently dollar strength rather than euro weakness thanks to robust US economy.
  • EUR/CHF: Slightly stronger since the beginning of the year, but no real trend reversal yet.
  • Future trends dependent on interest rate policy – European Central Bank sends very mixed signals.