Limited upside potential in 2023

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US: Fed hits the brakes hard on monetary policy. Mild recession likely in 2023, soft landing possible.
  • High energy prices hit Europe hard. Recession until spring 2023, V-shaped recovery thereafter.
  • Inflation peak in the US passed; euro inflation about to peak. Price pressure decreases from spring 2023.


  • Equity recovery in November. European equities supported by Q3 reporting, short covering and cheap valuation.
  • Major setbacks also likely in 2023. Limited upside potential in equities. Asia and Europe with opportunities.
  • We are neutral on equities. Economic risks remain. Recovery potential with interest rate turnaround and direction in 2024.


  • Recovery rally amid increasing recession fears and decreasing inflationary pressure. 10Y yield level noticeably lower.
  • Corporate bonds increasingly attractive with solid balance sheet data and capital inflows. Emerging market bonds ahead.
  • We prefer corporate and emerging market bonds to safe government bonds. Duration: close to neutral.


  • Gold recently boosted by USD weakness and real interest rate decline. Relative attractiveness despite potential at Fed pivot.
  • Oil on demand side burdened by China and recession worries. Structural deficit on supply side supports recovery.
  • Metals with fast recovery on China easing and economic recovery. Long-term drivers remain intact.


  • EUR/USD fights its way out of the trough. Improved financial market sentiment pushes euro up to 1.05 US dollars per euro.
  • After the political turmoil, the British currency swings back towards 0.85 pounds per euro.
  • Swiss National Bank relies on strong franc to fight inflation.