At a glance
- US: Fed hits the brakes hard on monetary policy. Mild recession likely in 2023, soft landing possible.
- High energy prices hit Europe hard. Recession until spring 2023, V-shaped recovery thereafter.
- Inflation peak in the US passed; euro inflation about to peak. Price pressure decreases from spring 2023.
- Equity recovery in November. European equities supported by Q3 reporting, short covering and cheap valuation.
- Major setbacks also likely in 2023. Limited upside potential in equities. Asia and Europe with opportunities.
- We are neutral on equities. Economic risks remain. Recovery potential with interest rate turnaround and direction in 2024.
- Recovery rally amid increasing recession fears and decreasing inflationary pressure. 10Y yield level noticeably lower.
- Corporate bonds increasingly attractive with solid balance sheet data and capital inflows. Emerging market bonds ahead.
- We prefer corporate and emerging market bonds to safe government bonds. Duration: close to neutral.
- Gold recently boosted by USD weakness and real interest rate decline. Relative attractiveness despite potential at Fed pivot.
- Oil on demand side burdened by China and recession worries. Structural deficit on supply side supports recovery.
- Metals with fast recovery on China easing and economic recovery. Long-term drivers remain intact.
- EUR/USD fights its way out of the trough. Improved financial market sentiment pushes euro up to 1.05 US dollars per euro.
- After the political turmoil, the British currency swings back towards 0.85 pounds per euro.
- Swiss National Bank relies on strong franc to fight inflation.