At a glance
Economics
- Planned spending package can strengthen German growth in conjunction with reforms.
- President Trump's tariff policy is jeopardising the upturn in the eurozone and the domestic economy in the medium term.
- Interest rate cuts by central banks are likely to come to an end soon - but uncertainty is high.
Equities
- US equities suffer from negative economic surprises and Trump's tariff policy. Selective opportunities due to correction.
- European equities with a strong start to the year. Cyclical economic sectors are benefiting from several factors.
- However, Europe has already come a long way and could consolidate for the time being.
Bonds
- Negative US economic surprises and the ‘DOGE’ austerity measures are causing US yields to fall.
- Trump's policy agenda (tariffs, immigration, debt) increases the risk of inflation. We are keeping duration close to neutral.
- High cash inflows and solid fundamentals continue to speak in favour of credit despite expensive valuations.
Commodities
- Gold remains supported in the medium term. However, the price is difficult to justify using standard valuation methods.
- The supply of oil remains plentiful, but the price must be right. The downside risk should therefore remain limited.
- Industrial demand for copper and aluminium remains stable. Infrastructure programmes are providing additional support.
Currencies
- Geopolitics and trade policy move the currency markets.
- Europe and the euro emerge from their state of shock.
- SNB tries to counter low inflation and strong franc.
