No all-clear yet for equities

Economics

• US: The Fed has hesitated for a long time, but is stepping hard on the brakes. Mild US recession in 2023.
• Putin cuts gas supply. The renewed rise in gas prices hits Europe hard. Recession until spring 2023.
• US-Inflation peak in sight. Euro inflation continues to rise until late autumn. Price pressure decreases strongly in 2023.

Equities

• Equities rallied on hopes of a Fed turnaround. However, the environment for equities remains challenging.
• Profit stability and growth more decisive again. Quality Growth shares thus with tailwind in H2.
• We are slightly underweight in the equity quota. Bottom formation later in the year, but risks in the coming months

Bonds

• Inflation worries replaced by recession worries. Yields on safe government bonds have fallen noticeably recently.
• Corporate bonds influenced by technical factors. Emerging market bonds have recovered from mid-July onwards.
• We are maintaining our lower underweight in bonds and a duration close to neutral.

Commodities

• Gold benefited from falling US dollar and real interest rates. However, a tighter interest rate policy could limit upside potential.
• Oil suffered from recession and demand slump concerns. The tight situation on the supply side remains.
• Metals weighed down by China lockdowns and recession. When the trend turns, the recovery usually comes quickly.

Currencies

• ECB with first interest rate step and decision of the "Transmission Protection Instrument" (TPI) to stabilise the Eurozone.
• At least the euro has since been able to stabilise slightly above parity against the US dollar.
• The euro remains weak against the Swiss franc, falling below the 0.98 franc per euro mark.