Stock markets tend to be weak in summer – except for seasonality at the beginning of July

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US economy loses some momentum, China’s growth stabilizes, consumption-driven upturn in Europe.
  • ECB lowers key interest rates at a snail’s pace, Fed expected to follow at the end of the year. Wage pressure remains high.
  • Political risks: Trump leads in US polls, shift to the right in snap elections in France could weaken Europe.


  • The stock markets are trading at new all-time highs following the correction in April. US market breadth remains low.
  • Small caps in Europe with rebound potential due to economic recovery, M&A activities and inflows.
  • Volatile sideways movement expected until the US elections. Short-term support from seasonality in July.


  • Despite the ECB’s first interest rate cut, the path ahead remains uncertain due to volatile economic data.
  • Increased rate volatility and inverse rate structure on both sides of the Atlantic continue to favor duration close to neutral.
  • IG segment valued more attractively than high-yield bonds. EM local currency bonds preferred.


  • Gold defies higher real rates and a strong dollar. ETF, central bank and EM private buying provide structural support for gold.
  • Crude oil in summer with tailwind from US travel season. Declining OPEC production cuts increase supply.
  • Base metals with potential after consolidation. Long-term demand intact due to decarbonisation and digitalisation.


  • Opposing forces are currently at work in the euro-dollar exchange rate.
  • The widening interest rate differential is weakening the euro, while the economic recovery in the eurozone is providing support.
  • All in all, we therefore expect the exchange rate to move sideways until the end of the year.