The air is getting thinner

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US economy more robust than expected. Mini recession likely in mid-2023, soft landing possible. Upswing in 2024.
  • Europe: Gas situation eases. Mild setback in winter, new upswing from summer. Inflation slowly declining.
  • Central banks: Interest rates will peak in mid-2023. US Fed cuts rates from end of 2023, ECB rates remain high.


  • Equity markets defend gains, but the air to the upside is thinner. Outperformance of European and value equities.
  • Economic challenges and monetary policy are likely to cap earnings growth and valuations across the board.
  • Risk-reward ratio not particularly attractive. We have reduced the equity quota to a slight underweight.


  • Yields rise on robust economy and steadier inflation. Yield on 10-year treasuries above 4% for a short term.
  • Corporate bonds a real alternative to equities with attractive yields. Local currency bonds preferred in emerging markets.
  • We are now only slightly underweight in bonds following recent purchases.


  • Gold burdened by stronger USD and higher real interest rates. Upside potential fundamentally limited in the short term.
  • Oil maintains sideways movement since December. Supported in the medium term by China recovery and restrictive producers.
  • Base metals suffer from slow China recovery. Stronger China data in Q2 and tight supply should support.


  • The EUR seamlessly continued its upward movement in the new year before strong US data led to a slight correction.
  • The GBP cannot hold its recovery gains and falls back again against the EUR.
  • At times, the EUR was trading above parity again against the CHF. Most recently, it went down to around CHF0.99 per EUR.