The bi-weekly Monitor gives you a structured overview of the current capital markets environment and hightlights important developments.

Capital Markets - Monitor | 10 Nov 2025

EM equities significantly outperform for the first time since 2017

Reading time: 15 MIN

Current market commentary

After the setback in mid-October, the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 rose to new all-time highs towards the end of the month. This was due to the one-year truce in the trade war between the US and China, the strong US re-porting season, positive economic data and the Fed's interest rate cut. However, Fed Chairman Powell then threw a spanner in the works with his statement that a further interest rate cut in December was by no means a foregone conclusion. After all, many of the positive drivers had already been priced in by the markets. In addition, the risks are increasing with the longest US shutdown ever. As a result, the stock markets recently fell again from their all-time highs. Bond yields rose, the US dollar appreciated slightly and gold therefore remained flat. However, if the US economy weakens, further interest rate cuts are not off the table. Otherwise, earnings growth is likely to remain strong. This is not a bad starting position for equities, especially as investor sentiment is subdued, share buybacks are set to resume after the reporting season, the typically positive seasonality lies ahead and an end to the shutdown seems close, which should have a positive effect.

Short-term outlook

Macroeconomic data in the US remains sparse due to what is now the longest shutdown in American history. Investors are therefore increasingly turning their attention to alternative data sources in order to gain a better picture of the labour market and the economy. Following the most important central bank meetings and the peak of the Q3 reporting season, economic developments are now likely to come even more sharply into focus for investors.

Tomorrow, the ZEW economic expectations (Nov.) for Germany and the eurozone are expected first. The final consumer prices (Oct.) for Germany will follow in the middle of the week. On Thursday, in addition to preliminary gross domestic product (Q3) and industrial production data (Sep.) from the UK, consumer prices (Oct.) from the US are also expected. On Friday, producer prices (Oct.) and retail sales (Oct.) from the US are on the agenda. Next week, the focus will then shift to the preliminary purchasing managers' indices (Nov.).

  • EM equities are significantly outperforming DM equities for the first time since 2017, buoyed by all EM regions.
  • At the start of the year, the weakness of the US dollar fuelled the positive performance. More recently, rising earnings growth expectations and the agreement between the US and China have contributed to this trend.
  • Investor positioning remains cautious, valuations are more attractive and the US dollar is likely to weaken in the medium term, all of which point to further potential for EM equities.