The strongest US inflation in 40 years and the consequently much more restrictive central bank policy made 2022 one of the most difficult years in stock market history. The implications for investors in traditional multi-asset portfolios are enormous. Traditional diversification effects were overturned with significantly rising inflation and, correspondingly, more restrictive central banks. For mixed portfolios of equities and government bonds in the US, it was the most difficult year since 1931 in terms of the classic 60/40 portfolio. For long periods, only commodities, energy sector equities and the US dollar provided support among the classic investment themes.
Many alternative strategies, on the other hand, offered a real diversification effect. They benefitted from pronounced macroeconomic trends in traditional asset classes and higher volatility. Individual strategies achieved significant gains and were thus convincing both relative to conventional investments and in absolute terms. How-ever, the more attractive interest rate level in the bond segment, coupled with higher risk premiums, now makes it necessary to reconsider defensive alternative strategies as bond substitutes. The diversification aspect of the multi-asset portfolio should become even more important. In our view, managed futures, long volatility and global macro strategies are particularly suitable for this purpose.
In this "Insights" publication, Christoph Netopil, Portfolio Manager Multi Asset, provides an outlook for the investment year 2023 on these and other individual strategies.
Christoph Netopil has been with Berenberg since 2014. Since 2016 he has been working as a portfolio manager in the area of multi-asset mandates. Besides being the portfolio manager of the multi-asset fund Berenberg Multi Asset Defensive, he is also responsible for total return strategies as well as special mandates with a focus on derivatives and portfolio protection. After graduating in business administration from Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main and working in account management at Allianz Global Investors, the certified stock exchange trader completed a trainee program at Sal. Oppenheim.