Horizon Handout August 2023

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • In Germany and the Eurozone, sentiment remains weak after the winter recession.
  • Disinflation: Inflation is decreasing in the Eurozone, the US and now also in the UK.
  • Even though inflation is still too high, central banks are approaching or have already reached the interest rate peak.


  • The Q2 reporting has season started. Company outlook more crucial from Q4 onwards as analysts are still quite optimistic.
  • Equity performance predominantly valuation-driven. Optimism dominates, which makes the market vulnerable.
  • We maintain the equity underweight and see a risk of a setback in Q3. Disappointment potential has increased.


  • In the face of possible interest rate cuts safe government bonds in the US and the Eurozone are now in demand.
  • European high yield bonds are not priced attractively anymore, so our preference is for investment grade bonds.
  • In emerging markets, we remain overweight in Latin America. Asia, on the other hand, offers significant catch-up potential.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Oil price with strong recovery thanks to tighter supply. Developments in China and OPEC policy crucial in the short term.
  • Gold remains highly valued. Investors are steadily reducing their positions. Still an important portfolio constituent for hedging.
  • Industrial metals continue to stabilise. Structural growth in demand due to renewable energies already visible.


  • In the US, inflation is falling faster than expected. In the Eurozone, the economy is sluggish. What are the central banks doing?
  • The US Fed and the ECB are very close to the interest rate peak. The probability of further tightening is decreasing.
  • The Swiss franc remains strong - both externally and domestically: inflation has fallen below 2% again.