- Recovery interrupted by second wave of infection. Smaller setback than in spring last year.
- Governments and central banks continue to support the economic comeback with all means at their disposal.
- Monetary and fiscal policy support and vaccines argue for a strong recovery from spring onwards.
- Equities performed well at the start of the year, with emerging market equities in particular gaining ground.
- Analysts have raised earnings estimates across almost all regions, and valuations have fallen as a result.
- We prefer European and emerging market equities in particular throughout 2021.
- Rising inflation expectations are likely to push yields up further. Safe government bonds remain unattractive.
- Investment-grade corporate bonds with limited potential. We prefer market-sensitive segments.
- We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Gold under pressure in the short term due to strong dollar and higher real rates. Emerging markets should boost demand.
- Saudi Arabia boosts oil price and cements supply deficit. US production stagnates.
- Structural demand trends for industrial metals remain intact. However, the high prices are more susceptible to setbacks.
- The Italian government crisis is weighing on the euro. Nevertheless, the exchange rate remains above 1.20 USD/EUR.
- As expected, the British pound is benefiting from the Brexit deal. However, the virus brings uncertainty.
- The Swiss franc remains very highly valued because of the many uncertainties.