- Economy: The recovery is interrupted by a second wave of infection. Smaller setback than in spring.
- Governments and central banks continue to support the economic recovery with all available means.
- Monetary and fiscal policy support and the vaccine news point to a strong recovery from 2021 onwards.
- All equity regions and especially COVID-19-ravaged sectors and regions gained in Q4.
- We expect corporate earnings to rise substantially next year, more than offsetting a decline in valuations.
- We prefer for the full-year 2021 especially European and emerging-market equities.
- Government bonds: Risk-on sentiment, rising debt and inflation expectations are negative for safe-haven bonds
- Corporate bonds: Companies with improved balance sheets, persistent excess demand, positive investment outlook.
- Emerging-market bonds: Local-currency bonds to benefit from stronger growth and weaker US dollar.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Rising demand for gold jewellery from emerging markets and negative real interest rates should support the gold price.
- OPEC+ is successfully steering the oil market. Anticipated demand recovery opens up moderate price potential.
- In the long term, structural trends are driving demand for industrial metals. In the short term, a setback seems likely.
- The common currency remains above 1.20 U.S. dollars per euro. ECB measures without much effect.
- DThe British pound hangs closely on Brexit news situation. Virus mutation in southern England brings new uncertainty.
- The Swiss franc remains very highly valued. Its price fluctuations reflect risk modus on the markets.