Economics
- Germany and the Eurozone now with technical winter recession after downward revisions of GDP data.
- Inflation falls more than expected in the eurozone and the US. In the UK, inflation remains very stubborn.
- ECB, BoE and Fed will tighten further. The wording of the ECB and Fed has been surprisingly hawkish lately.
Equities
- Profit growth expectations close to zero are probably realistic for 2023. 2024 should be better.
- The threat of liquidity withdrawal should cap valuations in the coming months.
- We see an increased risk of a setback in Q3. However, the downside potential is likely to be limited due to positioning.
Bonds
- Safe government bonds offer greater earnings opportunities in the US and the UK than in Germany.
- For European corporate bonds, we prefer short-dated securities from the investment grade segment.
- For emerging markets, local currency bonds remain our clear favourites. Our bond weighting is close to neutral.
Commodities
- Oil price development decoupled from fundamental data. Recovery still pending despite positive developments.
- Gold has moved sideways in the last month. Fed turnaround needed for sustained upward trend.
- Industrial metals continue to fall after brief recovery. Inventories low, demand rising due to energy transition.
Currencies
- After a temporary setback, the euro can gain again after the central bank meetings.
- The interest rate decisions by the Fed and the ECB were as expected. However, the outlook was surprisingly hawkish.
- The Swiss franc remains highly valued. Meanwhile, the inflation rate has almost fallen back to 2%.
