Horizon Handout June 2024

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The mood in the eurozone is gradually brightening and points to an economic recovery.
  • Inflation is falling in the UK and the economy is slowly gaining momentum.
  • The US economy remains robust, but is cooling slightly.


  • Equity markets have reached new highs following the correction in April. "Goldilocks" hopes are supporting share prices.
  • We feel comfortable with a neutral positioning. Positioning and seasonality speak against too much optimism.
  • Until the US elections, we expect a volatile sideways movement with limited upside potential.


  • Inflationary pressure in the USA remains high. The ECB is preparing to cut interest rates in June.
  • A good reporting season and robust risk demand are supporting the narrowing of spreads in the IG and HY segments.
  • The declining volatility of US government bond yields is supporting emerging market bonds.

Alternative Investments / commodities

  • Gold reached a new all-time high in May but has recently seen a slight consolidation. Further potential with positive ETF flows.
  • Crude oil sideways with low volatility. Geopolitical risks and recovery in demand offer upside opportunities.
  • Industrial metals recently (strongly) driven by speculation. Short-term consolidation likely, medium-term potential unaffected.


  • Earlier interest rate turnaround by the ECB compared to the Fed already largely priced in.
  • Currency effects of falling interest rates will be offset by economic recovery.
  • Monetary policy turnaround in Switzerland has weighed on the franc, but the ECB will soon follow suit.