Horizon Handout May 2021

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • Recovery delayed by persistent wave of infections. Sluggish vaccination progress burdens.
  • US and Great Britain with advantages thanks to rapid vaccination of their populations. The return to normality is initiated.
  • Monetary and fiscal policy support and vaccines argue for a strong upswing in the summer.


  • In line with typical seasonality, equity markets made broad gains. Only emerging market equities stagnated.
  • Analysts have raised earnings estimates across almost all regions, valuations have nevertheless risen.
  • We continue to focus on quality growth companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as Latin American equities.


  • Pressure on EUR yields increases due to positive economic outlook. Government bonds remain unattractive.
  • Risk premiums historically at a low level. High-yield bonds still offer slight potential thanks to economic recovery.
  • We continue to keep duration short and underweight bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Gold has found its bottom. The great selling pressure on the part of investors is gone. Jewellery demand supports.
  • Rising demand for crude oil in the West over the summer. Later, Iran's return as an oil exporter could be a burden.
  • Industrial metals have risen strongly recently. Further potential in the long term thanks to decarbonisation.


  • The euro is on the rise again as the vaccination gap against the US and UK is included in the rates.
  • US dollar and British pound give up some of their previous gains against the euro. EUR/CHF above 1.10.
  • No fresh impulses from the central banks. ECB, Fed and BoE remain in flexible waiting mode.

Read the full article here.