- The economy is slowing down in autumn: supply bottlenecks, high prices, China and COVID-19 are weighing on it.
- We think the discussion about the danger of stagflation is exaggerated. Demand will boost the economy again in 2022.
- High inflation is putting pressure on central banks to act. The BoE and the Fed are likely to act first.
- US equity indices reach new all-time highs. Chinese stocks remain volatile but seem to stabilise.
- Corporate profits should increase again next year, but growth rates should decline.
- We remain constructive on equities and consider a significant correction unlikely.
- Inflation expectations have risen further. 2021 and also 2022 are likely to be a negative year for government bonds.
- Spreads for corporate bonds are at a low level. Return potential mainly available in specific segements.
- We are underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Oil price rally continues in October. As long as the market remains undersupplied, the upside risks prevail.
- Gold is currently not in favour with investors despite strongly increased inflation expectations. It continues to move sideways.
- Industrial metals benefit from energy crisis. Supply is tight in the short term. Demand should continue to rise in the long term.
- The US dollar continues to be strong. It benefits from the prospect of tighter monetary policy and increased uncertainties.
- Sterling gains somewhat, benefiting from the monetary tightening outlook.
- The Swiss franc is once again very strong. The Swiss National Bank should counteract a further rise.