- The upswing was slowed down in autumn by supply bottlenecks and new Covid-19 uncertainties.
- Inflation continues to rise - in the US, Europe and Germany. Central banks begin to take countermeasures.
- While the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, the ECB remains hesitant.
- Many stock markets hit new all-time highs. Chinese equities remain volatile but seem to be stabilising.
- Corporate profits are expected to increase again next year, but growth rates are expected to decline.
- We remain constructive on equities. However, the risk of a technical countermovement has increased recently
- Yield pressure due to stagflation concerns (high inflation, low growth) led to a flattening of the yield curves.
- Spreads on EUR credit are at an unattractive level. EM high-yield bonds have increased spreads.
- We underweight bonds and focus on credit risks and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.
Alternative investments / commodities
- Oil prices face headwinds. Debate on oil reserve releases and Covid-19 concerns put an end to the oil price rally for now
- Precious metals such as gold and silver reacted to continued high inflation and were thus able to make significant gains.
- Industrial metals are taking a breather after a strong annual performance. However, the structural trend remains intact.
- The US dollar is once again in full gear. High inflation raises expectations of faster rising US interest rates.
- Even though the Bank of England was hesitant at its last meeting, the British pound is picking up speed again.
- The Swiss franc continues to push upwards. The ‘wait-and-see’ attitude of the ECB weakens the euro exchange rate.