Horizon Handout December 2021

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The upswing was slowed down in autumn by supply bottlenecks and new Covid-19 uncertainties.
  • Inflation continues to rise - in the US, Europe and Germany. Central banks begin to take countermeasures.
  • While the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, the ECB remains hesitant.


  • Many stock markets hit new all-time highs. Chinese equities remain volatile but seem to be stabilising.
  • Corporate profits are expected to increase again next year, but growth rates are expected to decline.
  • We remain constructive on equities. However, the risk of a technical countermovement has increased recently


  • Yield pressure due to stagflation concerns (high inflation, low growth) led to a flattening of the yield curves.
  • Spreads on EUR credit are at an unattractive level. EM high-yield bonds have increased spreads.
  • We underweight bonds and focus on credit risks and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Oil prices face headwinds. Debate on oil reserve releases and Covid-19 concerns put an end to the oil price rally for now
  • Precious metals such as gold and silver reacted to continued high inflation and were thus able to make significant gains.
  • Industrial metals are taking a breather after a strong annual performance. However, the structural trend remains intact.


  • The US dollar is once again in full gear. High inflation raises expectations of faster rising US interest rates.
  • Even though the Bank of England was hesitant at its last meeting, the British pound is picking up speed again.
  • The Swiss franc continues to push upwards. The ‘wait-and-see’ attitude of the ECB weakens the euro exchange rate.