Horizon Handout January 2022

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.

Economics:

  • The omicron variant brings new uncertainty. There is, however, enough purchasing power for a recovery in spring.
  • Inflation keeps rising in the US, in the UK, in the Eurozone and in Germany.
  • The upward pressure on prices is forcing central banks to turn around. The Fed and the BoE are leading the way, while the
    ECB remains hesitant.

Equities:

  • Corporate profits should rise next year, but growth rates are expected to decline.
  • Valuations are likely to decline slightly due to rising bond yields and less liquidity support. •
  • We see limited upside potential for equities in 2022, despite no alternatives.

Bonds:

  • Safe government bonds are likely to remain out of favour and we expect losses.
  • For European corporate bonds, we focus on short maturities with relatively high yields.
  • For emerging market bonds, we are wary of high duration, but attractive valuations offer hope.

Alternative investments / commodities:

  • COVID-19 brings oil prices down again. There’s short-term recovery potential if infection rates subside.
  • Gold rises following central bank meetings. Potential rising real interest rates remain the biggest headwind.
  • Industrial metals should gain when the economy picks up again.

Currencies:

  • The euro seems to have found its trough against the US dollar. The latest ECB decision does not weaken the euro.
  • The BoE is tightening. However, the interest rate advantage over the euro is priced in so the sideways movement continues.
  • The Swiss franc is very strong. Part of the franc's strength can be explained by the much lower level of inflation.