Key messages of the capital market outlook:
Recession fears: Economic woes increasingly dominate inflation fears. Markets are increasingly pricing in a recession, while inflation expectations are falling.
Sentiments low: Sceptical sentiment, low positioning and more attractive valuations suggest a bottoming out. But a recession, lower profts and the withdrawal of liquidity are still looming. Final sell-off therefore not ruled out.
Surprise effect: With easing supply constraints, declining infation and less restrictive tones from central banks overly pessimistic investors may be surprised.
In the Insights interview we discuss which developments are making this year so complicated for investors.
Ulrich Urbahn
Ulrich Urbahn is a CFA charterholder and, for many years, was part of one of the world’s top three multi-asset research teams in the renowned Extel survey. After earning degrees in economics and mathematics from Heidelberg University, he spent more than ten years at Commerzbank, where he worked, among other roles, as a Senior Cross-Asset Strategist. He has been with Berenberg since October 2017 and heads the Multi Asset Strategy & Research as well as the Portfolio Management Alternatives departments. In addition, he is a voting member of the Investment Committee and is responsible for capital markets communication.
