Key messages of the capital market outlook:
Recession fears: Economic woes increasingly dominate inflation fears. Markets are increasingly pricing in a recession, while inflation expectations are falling.
Sentiments low: Sceptical sentiment, low positioning and more attractive valuations suggest a bottoming out. But a recession, lower profts and the withdrawal of liquidity are still looming. Final sell-off therefore not ruled out.
Surprise effect: With easing supply constraints, declining infation and less restrictive tones from central banks overly pessimistic investors may be surprised.
In the Insights interview we discuss which developments are making this year so complicated for investors.
Ulrich Urbahn
Ulrich Urbahn has been working for Berenberg since October 2017 and is responsible for quantitative analyses and the devel-opment of strategic and tactical allocation ideas, and is involved in capital market communications. He is a member of the Asset Allocation Committee and portfolio manager of the Berenberg Variato. After graduating in economics and mathematics from the University of Heidelberg, he worked for more than 10 years at Commerzbank, among others, as a senior cross asset strate-gist. Mr Urbahn is a CFA charterholder and was part of the three best multi-asset research teams worldwide in the renowned Extel survey for many years.
