Change of investor focus from valuation to fundamentals

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly


  • US: The Fed hesitated for far too long, now it is hitting the brakes hard. We forecast a mild US recession in 2023.
  • Putin cuts gas supply. Another gas price hike will hit Eurozone hard. Recession from autumn.
  • Inflation peak in sight in the US. Euro inflation will continue to rise until late fall. Price pressure decreases sharply in 2023.


  • Equities have suffered one of the weakest first halves in history. Inflation and recession concerns burdened.
  • Increasing recession concerns should mean a shift in investor focus from valuation to fundamentals.
  • We are moderately underweight in equities. Quality growth with significant potential with less interest rate pressure.


  • Recession dominates inflation. Yields have fallen noticeably recently, as government bonds were in demand as safe havens.
  • Corporate and emerging market bonds are increasingly pricing in recession risks. Yields are increasingly attractive.
  • In the current environment, a duration increase via safe bonds is likely to make sense. We are increasing our bond allocation.


  • Gold is caught between recession worries and real interest rates. It is still an important portfolio component as a hedge.
  • Oil has suffered from recession and demand slump concerns. However, supply remains tight for the time being.
  • Industrial metals are weighed down by China lockdowns. If the trend reverses, there should be a quick recovery.


  • The European Central Bank is lagging behind the other central banks. The euro is suffering from the hesitation. •
  • At the same time, the US dollar is benefiting from risk aversion. EUR/USD has therefore fallen below 1.03.
  • After the interest rate hike, the Swiss franc is bearish. The euro has fallen below parity against the franc.