Earning development supports the markets

Economics

• The recovery continues. Thanks to vaccinations, health systems should no longer be stretched to their limits.
• Consumers have pent-up demand, companies want to invest, politicians are supporting - already there are some bottlenecks.
• Inflation returned more dynamically with the upswing - central banks will tighten policy cautiously.

Equities

• Equity markets rose for the 6th month in a row. Earnings and economic development supported. Asia with difficulties.
• Reflation trade is not dead but is losing momentum. Cyclical and growth equities developed positively.
• We think there is limited upside potential and have taken a balanced position with only a slight overweight in equities.

Bonds

• Recently yields have fallen significantly. The room for more downside is now limited, which increases the risk of rising rates.
• Growth concerns have caused spreads on high-yield and emerging market bonds to rise moderately.
• We are underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.

Commodities

• The gold price has moved sideways despite the fall in real interest rates. Growth concerns could increase demand again.
• Crude oil had a volatile month but is expected to rise again as supply tightens and the economy recovers.
• Industrial metals have recently gained in value again. We think there is more upside than downside in a strong economy.

Currencies

• EUR/USD: The Fed is helping the dollar to new strength. Loose ECB policy weighs on the euro.
• The UK pound has gains slightly against the euro again. Is the Bank of England giving the pound a further tailwind?
• The Swiss franc is taking wing again. The losses against the euro from the first quarter have now been more than made up