At a glance
- US: economy more robust than expected, mini-recession H2 2023 likely, soft landing possible. Upswing 2024.
- Europe: Consumer purchasing power recovering, but headwinds for industry from abroad. Hardly any growth in H2 2023.
- Inflation declining, interest rate peak almost reached. Fed cuts rates early 2024; ECB tightens further, its rates remain high in 2024
- Equities in June with performance heterogeneity. Cyclicals outperform defensive stocks.
- High positioning makes markets vulnerable to setbacks. Recession risks and falling net liquidity remain risks.
- We maintain our balanced, non-offensive positioning with a moderate underweight in equities.
- Duration of sovereign and covered bonds recently hindered performance but will be a performance driver in the future.
- The relative valuation of investment grade corporate bonds is now much more attractive than high yield bonds.
- We continue to be positioned close to neutral in duration with a rising focus on rate duration instead of spread duration
- Gold burdened by general risk-on sentiment. Potential without an interest rate cut currently fundamentally limited.
- Oil has stabilised recently thanks to a declining supply surplus. Further production cuts should provide tailwind.
- Industrial metals are pricing in weaker manufacturing. Supply remains tight, however. Long-term upward trend intact.
- EUR/USD currently without a clear trend. At the current rate of USD 1.09 per euro, the euro has some room to move upwards.
- The tighter monetary policy continues to give the GBP stability. EUR/GBP is firming at GBP 0.86 per EUR.
- Switzerland has managed to push the inflation rate back below the 2% mark. The CHF remains strong.