Equity markets vulnerable to a setback

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US: economy more robust than expected, mini-recession H2 2023 likely, soft landing possible. Upswing 2024.
  • Europe: Consumer purchasing power recovering, but headwinds for industry from abroad. Hardly any growth in H2 2023.
  • Inflation declining, interest rate peak almost reached. Fed cuts rates early 2024; ECB tightens further, its rates remain high in 2024


  • Equities in June with performance heterogeneity. Cyclicals outperform defensive stocks.
  • High positioning makes markets vulnerable to setbacks. Recession risks and falling net liquidity remain risks.
  • We maintain our balanced, non-offensive positioning with a moderate underweight in equities.


  • Duration of sovereign and covered bonds recently hindered performance but will be a performance driver in the future.
  • The relative valuation of investment grade corporate bonds is now much more attractive than high yield bonds.
  • We continue to be positioned close to neutral in duration with a rising focus on rate duration instead of spread duration


  • Gold burdened by general risk-on sentiment. Potential without an interest rate cut currently fundamentally limited.
  • Oil has stabilised recently thanks to a declining supply surplus. Further production cuts should provide tailwind.
  • Industrial metals are pricing in weaker manufacturing. Supply remains tight, however. Long-term upward trend intact.


  • EUR/USD currently without a clear trend. At the current rate of USD 1.09 per euro, the euro has some room to move upwards.
  • The tighter monetary policy continues to give the GBP stability. EUR/GBP is firming at GBP 0.86 per EUR.
  • Switzerland has managed to push the inflation rate back below the 2% mark. The CHF remains strong.