Preference for anti-cyclical trading and neutral positioning

At a glance

Economics

• Trump's tariff policy is weakening the US and postponing the recovery in the eurozone. We expect deals by July 2025.
• US tariffs: more inflation in the USA, less in Europe. ECB can cut interest rates further, Fed has no reason to do so.
• New German government: Additional spending on military and infrastructure and reforms can strengthen growth.

Equities

• US equities are suffering from negative economic surprises and the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policy.
• Earnings revisions for Europe have recently turned clearly negative.
• In the short term, the low positioning and negative sentiment could provide support. Anti-cyclical trading preferred.

Bonds

• Unpredictable customs and economic policies in the US are unsettling companies and investors alike.
• Trump's policy agenda (tariffs, immigration, debt) increases the risk of inflation. We are keeping duration close to neutral.
• Credit with continued good fundamentals, however, upward trend and inflows appear to be slowing.

Commodities

• After a good performance, gold is likely to be susceptible to a setback in the short term. The structural drivers remain intact.
• OPEC+ production increases are being curbed by the compensation plan. Supply nevertheless remains ample.
• Industrial metals are being driven by US tariff policy. However, the supply of copper remains tight and demand high.

Currencies

• Trump's tariffs have put the US dollar under strong pressure, while the euro has made significant gains.
• The status of the dollar is suffering, but it will remain the global currency for the foreseeable future due to a lack of alternatives.
• The Swiss franc is in demand as a safe haven and puts the Swiss National Bank in a dilemma.