Stock markets with a slight setback

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US economy remains robust. China's growth stabilizes at a comparatively low level.
  • Europe: economy slowly regaining momentum, consumption-supported upturn from the summer.
  • ECB moves ahead with interest rate cuts from June, Fed expected to follow at the end of the year.


  • The stock markets have recently corrected slightly. US equities have fallen more sharply than their European counterparts.
  • We have used the recent weakness to neutralize our equity allocation and reduced our US underweight.
  • Until the US elections, we expect a volatile sideways movement with limited upside potential.


  • Interest rate cut expectations for the Fed further reduced in view of stubborn inflation data in the US.
  • Increased rate volatility and inverse rate structures on both sides of the Atlantic continue to favour duration close to neutral.
  • Idiosyncratic stress in HY, IG fundamentally and technically well supported. EM local currency bonds favoured.


  • Gold defies higher real interest rates, a firm dollar and ETF outflows. Hot in the short term, but still an important hedge.
  • Crude oil in a sideways trend without geopolitical escalation. Supply and demand currently appear to be in balance.
  • Industrial metals benefit from recovery in the manufacturing sector and ban on Russian metal. Overheated in the short term.


  • The robust US economy and the later start of the US interest rate turnaround are giving the US dollar a tailwind.
  • However, these factors are now largely priced in, so further upside potential appears limited.
  • We expect the exchange rate to tend to move sideways until the end of the year.