The bi-weekly Monitor gives you a structured overview of the current capital markets environment and hightlights important developments.

Capital Markets - Monitor | 27 Oct 2025

Gold takes a breather after a strong rally – drivers for bull market intact

Reading time: 15 MIN

Current market commentary

October is now delivering on its promise – at least to some extent. Historically, it is the month with the highest volatility in equities. After a quiet summer, volatility on the markets has picked up somewhat. Given the political chaos in France, the renewed tariff dispute between China and the US, the shutdown in the US, the insolvencies of First Brands and Tricolor, and the associated fears regarding US regional banks and the private debt segment, an even stronger market reaction might have been expected. This is particularly true given that highly positioned systematic strategies had to sell equities. However, discretionary investors are less highly positioned and are using setbacks to buy. The strong US reporting season, falling bond yields and interest rate cuts by the Fed – which are likely to happen again this week – as well as the possible increase in oil production at the OPEC meeting next Sunday suggest that this is currently a healthy breather after very strong performance in recent months – both for equities and for gold and silver. In the medium term, however, their bull market is likely to remain intact.

Short-term outlook

As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, which is now entering its fourth week and is already the second-longest shutdown in US history, macroeconomic data from the US remains sparse. The consumer price figures published last Friday are likely to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates again on Wednesday. No interest rate changes are expected from the ECB and the BOJ, which are also meeting this week. Today, the ifo Business Climate Index (Oct.) for Germany will be reported. On Tuesday, consumer confidence (Oct.) figures from the US are scheduled to be released. In addition to German consumer prices (Oct.), GDP (Q3) for the eurozone will also be released on Thursday. At the end of the week, China's purchasing managers' indices (Oct.) and the US consumer spending price index (Sep.) are on the agenda for Friday. Next week, the focus is likely to be on the Bank of England's interest rate decision.

Gold takes a breather after a strong rally – drivers for bull market intact

Source: Bloomberg, Time period: 01/01/1970 – 24/10/2025
  • Despite the correction, the conditions for a secular gold bull market remain intact: (geo)political risks, rising government debt, fiscal dominance, financial repression and a weaker US dollar. In addition, many investors are still not highly positioned.
  • Even by historical standards, the current gold bull market still has considerable upside potential: neither its length nor its performance are comparable to the major bull markets since 1970.