Industrial metals – at the beginning of a new super-cycle

Ludwig Kemper, Multi-Asset Strategist, looks at industrial metals. He shows why industrial metals are indispensable in the fight against climate change and what this could mean for price devel-opments in the coming decade.

Industrial metals are among the big winners of the COVID-19 crisis: in 2020 they gained an average of 20% and this year they have already achieved a double-digit performance (see Fig. 1). Not despite, but rather because of the virus, the fundamen-tal outlook is very positive in the short to medium term. Although demand fell sharp-ly in the course of the first lockdowns, many mine operators were also affected by COVID-related closures. Extreme inventory build-ups thus did not materialise. At the same time, political decision-makers around the globe launched fiscal stimuli of unprecedented magnitude. Thanks to the numerous economic stimulus and infra-structure programmes, industry is buzzing, which is also driving strong demand for raw materials. In addition to the economic upswing, industrial metals are also in-creasingly gaining longer-term tailwinds. This is because they are core raw materials for many key technologies to decarbonise our society and thus fight climate change. For industrial metals, a new structural boom, a super-cycle, may have just begun.

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Author

Ludwig Kemper

Ludwig Kemper has been working as an analyst in the Multi Asset Strategy & Research team since October 2019. His responsibilities include the generation of investment ideas and the preparation of analyses to support investment decisions. He is also involved in capital market publications, focusing on the commodities sector. Previously, Ludwig completed a dual study program at Berenberg in cooperation with the Hamburg School of Business Administration. During his practical phases he worked in investment banking, equity research and discretionary and quantitative asset management. He received his Bachelor's degree in Business Administration as valedictorian of his class.

Multi Asset Strategy & Research