Industrial metals – at the beginning of a new super-cycle

Ludwig Kemper, Multi-Asset Strategist, looks at industrial metals. He shows why industrial metals are indispensable in the fight against climate change and what this could mean for price devel-opments in the coming decade.

Industrial metals are among the big winners of the COVID-19 crisis: in 2020 they gained an average of 20% and this year they have already achieved a double-digit performance (see Fig. 1). Not despite, but rather because of the virus, the fundamen-tal outlook is very positive in the short to medium term. Although demand fell sharp-ly in the course of the first lockdowns, many mine operators were also affected by COVID-related closures. Extreme inventory build-ups thus did not materialise. At the same time, political decision-makers around the globe launched fiscal stimuli of unprecedented magnitude. Thanks to the numerous economic stimulus and infra-structure programmes, industry is buzzing, which is also driving strong demand for raw materials. In addition to the economic upswing, industrial metals are also in-creasingly gaining longer-term tailwinds. This is because they are core raw materials for many key technologies to decarbonise our society and thus fight climate change. For industrial metals, a new structural boom, a super-cycle, may have just begun.

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Ludwig Kemper
Multi Asset Strategy & Research