Horizon Handout August 2022

Economics

• Inflationary pressures remain high and an energy crisis looms, at least in Germany. Consumers are unsettled.
• Supply bottlenecks, energy crisis, inflation, rising interest rates – this macroeconomic mix will lead to recession.
• Central banks have to tighten monetary policy, even if the economy is slowing down. Now the ECB has also reacted.

Equities

• Equity markets could recover slightly. However, negative economic and earnings momentum are likely to be headwinds.
• Analysts have significantly reduced earnings expectations, but are still too positive for 2022 in our opinion.
• We are positioning ourselves with a moderate equity underweight, as risks still dominate at present.

Bonds

• Safe government bonds caught between restrictive interest rate policy and recession worries. Inversion of the yield curve.
• Risk premiums on emerging market bonds still on an upward trend. EUR-IG bond spreads under pressure.
• We are underweight bonds and remain cautiously positioned on credit risk. Duration: less short than previously.

Commodities

• Oil is dominated by recession worries, but the physical market remains tight. Prices are unlikely to fall more sharply.
• Gold suffers from dollar strength. After risk premiums were priced out, there is now positive surprise potential again.
• Base metals are bottoming out and offer upside potential. Producers are increasingly suffering from high input costs.

Currencies

• Despite the first interest rate hike, the euro remains weak. Other central banks were faster and seem more determined.
• Against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, the euro trades around parity.
• The Swiss franc is still benefiting from the surprise interest rate hike and the risk-off sentiment.