- Inflationary pressures remain high and an energy crisis looms, at least in Germany. Consumers are unsettled.
- Supply bottlenecks, energy crisis, inflation, rising interest rates – this macroeconomic mix will lead to recession.
- Central banks have to tighten monetary policy, even if the economy is slowing down. Now the ECB has also reacted.
- Equity markets could recover slightly. However, negative economic and earnings momentum are likely to be headwinds.
- Analysts have significantly reduced earnings expectations, but are still too positive for 2022 in our opinion.
- We are positioning ourselves with a moderate equity underweight, as risks still dominate at present.
- Safe government bonds caught between restrictive interest rate policy and recession worries. Inversion of the yield curve.
- Risk premiums on emerging market bonds still on an upward trend. EUR-IG bond spreads under pressure.
- We are underweight bonds and remain cautiously positioned on credit risk. Duration: less short than previously.
- Oil is dominated by recession worries, but the physical market remains tight. Prices are unlikely to fall more sharply.
- Gold suffers from dollar strength. After risk premiums were priced out, there is now positive surprise potential again.
- Base metals are bottoming out and offer upside potential. Producers are increasingly suffering from high input costs.
- Despite the first interest rate hike, the euro remains weak. Other central banks were faster and seem more determined.
- Against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, the euro trades around parity.
- The Swiss franc is still benefiting from the surprise interest rate hike and the risk-off sentiment.